A Risk Analysis Procedure for Calculating Failure Rates vs Time

1970 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dolph G. Ebeling
2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wafik H. Iskander ◽  
Majid Jaraiedi

2020 ◽  
pp. 126941
Author(s):  
Andrea Giachetti ◽  
Francesco Ferrini ◽  
Gianni Bartoli

2001 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faisal I. Khan ◽  
Asad Iqbal ◽  
S. A. Abbasi

1994 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 817-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. L. Cordue ◽  
R. I. C. C. Francis

Risk analysis has been used recently to enhance scientific advice to managers by providing estimates of risk to the fishery of different management strategies. However, little consideration has been given to the accuracy of these estimates. We present a reformulation and generalization of the risk analysis procedure of Francis (1992. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 49: 922–930) and use simulation methods to examine the properties of a number of alternative risk estimators for two of New Zealand's main fisheries. It is shown that the choice of estimator can strongly affect the final estimates of risk and that the risk estimators can be alarmingly inaccurate. The accuracy of estimates is also shown to vary according to the type of risk being estimated, so analysts may improve the accuracy of their estimates by choosing the type of risk they estimate.


2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 806-808
Author(s):  
Tahir Mehmood Khan ◽  
◽  
Yee Chang Soh ◽  
Siang Fei Yeoh ◽  
Learn-Han Lee ◽  
...  

10.28945/3844 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 081-095
Author(s):  
Gilbert Gonzalez

Using the Risk Analysis for Initial Needs (RAIN) planning model and its resource-based audit (RBA) tool to support the creation of a time zero startup business plan will improve the perceived value of the startup plan to founders and stakeholders by identifying gaps between the needs and availability of the needed resources at time zero. The case has been made that successful startups are beneficial to all stakeholders in the community, while startups that fail to sustain create significant costs, both actual and opportunity, for both themselves and the community. Depending on the source and the time frame referenced, emerging business failure rates range from 50% to 80% (BLS, 2016). This figure demonstrates the disappointing inefficiency of startups. What is not clear is whether the high failure rate, which has come to be accepted, is necessary. The creation of RAIN was motivated by the desire to seek a solution to the business problem of continuously high failure rates through improved startup business planning. RAIN improves the startup business plan by replacing traditional environmental auditing with resource-based auditing (RBA), and focusing on sustainability and scalability during the post-launch Incubation period. Using the RAIN startup planning model at time zero and throughout the early stages of the business lifecycle should improve sustainability and encourage founders to embrace developing and using startup plans. Experts agree that entrepreneurial enterprises are creators of economic growth. In fact, a recent study by Guzman and Stern looked at the attributable growth for a community based on the quality of the startups (Guzman & Stern, 2016). It was found that “a doubling of the entrepreneurial quality predicts an increase of 6.8% in GDP in 11 years” (Frick, 2016). This study emphasizes the need for more successes, rather than more startups. “We’ve long known that new businesses matter to the economy and that it’s a small group of fast-growing firms that matter most, because of the jobs and innovation they bring” (Frick, 2016). Founders, investors, creditors, incubators, government programs, and entrepreneurial education programs all benefit from improving the sustainability rate of startups. These benefits include job creation, debt default minimization, and expanded economic growth through the multiplier effect of the surviving business entity (Guzman & Stern, 2016). Improving the success rate of new businesses through improved time zero planning will have positive consequences for the community and economy.


2013 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 4980-4992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Ruffino ◽  
Silvia Fiore ◽  
Maria Chiara Zanetti

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