Subject
The implications of a sharp rise in foreign holdings of local currency-denominated government bonds in Emerging Europe.
Significance
A surge in capital inflows into the Czech Republic and Turkey is increasing the scope for a disorderly sell-off in financial markets, as both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB begin simultaneously withdrawing monetary stimulus. While international investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets remains strong because of low (or in some cases negative) bond yields in advanced economies, emerging markets (EM) are still vulnerable to the removal of stimulus by the Fed and the ECB.
Impacts
Global stock markets are at record highs: the rally in the S&P 500 equity index is now the second-strongest bull run in US history.
Price pressures in Central Europe, particularly core inflation, will be subdued, except in the Czech Republic.
This will allow central banks to maintain loose monetary policies which in turn will support regional bond markets.