Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis

This paper examines the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan from 2002 to 2019 with a focus on open market operations. We apply a principal component analysis to investigate the complexity of monetary policy. Our results identify four principal components that explain the variance of measures taken by the Bank of Japan and its operation of various facilities: asset purchase measures including Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), and three different liquidity supply measures. Complexity differs substantially among different governorships of Fukui, Shirakawa (most complex), and Kuroda. We derive some conclusions from the increased complexity with implications for the economy.

The Effect of Government Bonds, Inflation, And Exchange Rate in Achieving SDGs

This study aims to examine the effect of bonds, inflation rates, and exchange rates on economic growth to achieve Indonesia's 2030 sustainable development goals, namely reducing government and poverty. This study uses a quantitative regression analysis method with a path analysis approach to determine the direct or indirect effect between variables. The variables used are published values, inflation, exchange rates, economic growth, poverty rates, and poverty in Indonesia in 2016-2020. Based on the path analysis, the coefficient of determination of 60.72% indicates that the diversity of the data of 60.72% can be explained in the model. Government Bonds have a direct and significant effect on the economic growth of -1,243. Government obligations indirectly affect the level of movement and mission of 1,098 and 1,128, respectively. The inflation rate directly affects the rate of economic growth of 0.712. The inflation rate has no direct effect on the movement level and poverty of -0.6294 and -0.6644. The exchange rate has no significant direct or indirect effect on economic growth, movement, and poverty. This study concludes that the government needs to control inflation and inflation so that the economy can be achieved and reduce inflation and poverty. Keywords: Government Bond, Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Economic Growth, SDG’s

Risk Evaluation on China Government Bonds with EWMAVaR and SVM Methods

This research studies the strategy of risk evaluation of China government bonds with the latest data. The angle of evaluation focuses on the interest rate and the stability risk, employing the EWMAVaR and SVM methods. The weights of each risk indicator are determined by the entropy method. Experimental results show that the risk of government bonds is stable in recent years. However, the impact of COVID-19 cannot be ignored because the risk level increased in the year 2020. The issuing of one trillion special antipandemic bonds could explain the fluctuation of the market because the fiscal incomes of Chinese government decreased in 2020 and could not be recovered in a short time. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a better performance than the existing methods, and it can help well in realizing the risk assessment of government bonds.

Debt to GDP Ratio from the Perspective of MMT

In this note we examine the debt to GDP ratio from the perspective of MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) by a simple macroeconomic model with savings by government bonds instead of money. Mainly we will show the following results. 1) In order to maintain full employment under economic growth, the budget deficit, including interest payments on government bonds, must be positive; and if the budget deficit is smaller than this value, there will be recession with involuntary unemployment. 2) Under full employment the debt to GDP ratio approaches to a finite value over time. 3) In the underemployment case the national income is determined by the budget deficit. 4) The excessive budget deficit causes inflation. 6) In order to recover full employment from recession we need budget deficit larger than that when full employment is maintained. 5) The budget deficit, including interest payments on government bonds, equals the increase of the savings of consumers between periods (generations); and this result holds whether we have full employment or not, whether we have inflation or not. Then, the ratio of the national debt to GDP in a period is smaller than one, and even if one period constitutes of several years, the debt to GDP ratio in a year is finite.

The assessment of government incentives on savings, Hungary 2006–2019

This study analyses the effectiveness of government incentives on household savings in Hungary prior to the Covid pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil. Time series pertaining to life insurance, voluntary pension savings, and long-term and short-term government bonds are tested in relation to government incentives. The novelty of this study is the test on complex mix of policy incentives and saving funds. The analysis applies the multiple breakpoint test and OLS regression, based on the behavioural life cycle hypothesis. The conclusion is that in the analysed time period the government incentives had a significant effect and promoted savings behaviour, with the exception of short-term government bonds.

Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure

The aim of this study is to test the ability of the yield curve on US government bonds to forecast the future evolution in the prices of commodities often used in as raw materials. We consider the monthly prices of nine commodities for more than 30 years. Our findings, confirmed by several parametric and non-parametric tests, are robust and indicate that the ability to forecast future performance changes over time. Specifically, between 1986 and the early 2000s the yield curve was quite successful in forecasting monthly changes in commodity prices, but that success diminished in the period following. One possible explanation for this outcome is the increased flow of capital into the commodity market resulting in stronger correlations with the equity markets and a breakdown of the obvious relationship between commodities and business cycle. Our findings are important for asset pricing, commodity traders and policy makers.

Can Financial Literacy Explain Lack of Investment in Risky Assets in Japan?

Although household savings in Japan are among the highest in the world, investment in risky assets is still very low. This study examines whether financial literacy explains the lack of investment in risky assets in Japan. We use data from the Preference Parameter Study, a nationwide survey in Japan that has been conducted by Osaka University. We use investment in stocks, investment trusts, futures/options, Japanese government bonds, government bonds of foreign countries, and foreign currency deposits as a proxy for investment in risky assets. Our results show that investment in risky assets is higher among financially literate people. Moreover, financial literacy has a significantly positive association with investment in risky assets even after controlling the demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors. We check the robustness of the association between financial literacy and investment in risky assets by segregating investment in risky assets into investment in equity securities and investment in bonds and foreign currencies. Financial literacy is found to be associated with both investment in equity securities and investment in bonds and foreign currencies. Our results are also robust in terms of the endogeneity issue. The results imply that investment in risky assets in financial markets could be increased by introducing financial literacy programs at a mass level.

Public Investment for Health in Vietnam: The Current State and Policy Recommendations

The latest Vietnamese health system is being steadily renewed and strengthened in the direction of equality- efficiency-development and social security. Over past years, the health sector has been involved in investing in the construction of central-to-local medical examination and treatment facilities with state budget money, government bonds, ODA and other sources. The main purpose of this study is to empirically test the Public investment for health in Vietnam. The author collected secondary data from previous studies and the reports of Ministry of Health, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Ministry of Finance. The results of the research show that the public investment plan for the period 2016-2020 is focused on the ability to collect the state budget; State budget expenditure on health is not consistent every year, but tends to increase; the demand for investment in health in the period 2016-2020 is very large and is surely to increase in the future. Based on the findings, some conclusions are given.