scholarly journals Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (60) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Culiuc
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Expenditure Switching ◽  
Output Losses ◽  
Exchange Rate Overshooting

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.

Toward the Policy Maker’s Vade Mecum

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atish R. Ghosh ◽  
Jonathan D. Ostry ◽  
Mahvash S. Qureshi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Policy Advice ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Fx Market

This chapter provides concrete policy advice for dealing with capital inflows. In sum, once the monetary authorities have allowed the exchange rate to appreciate to a level that is not undervalued from a multilaterally consistent medium-term perspective, they may want to start intervening in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent further appreciation, sterilizing the intervention if there are inflationary pressures. If the economy shows signs of overheating, monetary and fiscal tightening might be necessary, together with macroprudential measures to contain excessive credit growth. To the extent these policies prove insufficient, the authorities need to consider bolstering them by imposing or tightening capital controls. At the same time, national authorities must be mindful of growing balance-sheet mismatches in the economy and should avail themselves of both prudential measures and capital controls to shift the composition of inflows toward less risky forms of liabilities.

The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 319-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernard Njindan Iyke ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run

In this paper, we identify the fundamental determinants of the long-run exchange rate in South Africa. We then estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for this country using a dataset covering the period 1975–2012. In order to account for possible short-run fluctuations in the real exchange rate, we conducted a cointegration test using the ARDL bounds testing procedure. First, we found terms of trade, trade openness, government consumption, net foreign assets and real commodity prices to be the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa. Second, we found that nearly 68.06% of the real exchange-rate disequilibrium is corrected annually. Overall, the estimated equilibrium rate indicates that the Rand has been depreciating in real terms over the years. Tightening trade openness is not an option, given international agreements; on the other hand, terms of trade and real commodity prices are determined by the world market. The obvious policy alternative is for South Africa to increase government spending and moderately decrease her net foreign asset position.

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