Entry, Variable Markups, and Business Cycles

The creation of new businesses declines in recessions. In this paper, I study the effects of pro-cyclical business formation on aggregate employment in a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics. The key features of the model are that the elasticity of demand faced by firms falls with their market share and that adjustment costs slow the reallocation of employment between firms. In response to a decline in entry, incumbent firms' market shares increase, their elasticity of demand falls, and they increase their markups and reduce employment. To quantify the model, I study the relationship between variable input use and revenue in panel data on large firms. Viewed through the lens of my model, my estimates imply that for large firms, the within-firm elasticity of the markup to relative sales is 25 percent. I use the calibrated model to study shocks to entry, finding that a fall in entry can lead to a significant contraction in employment. A shock to entry that replicates the decline in the number of businesses during the Great Recession generates a prolonged 2.5 percent fall in employment in the model. Finally, I show that the declining correlation between revenue and variable input use over the past 30 years implies that the effect of entry on the business cycle has become stronger over time.

Innovation, Public Policy and Growth: What the Data Say

Innovation and technological progress are the key determinants of long-run economic growth and welfare. Therefore, an important question is, how can public policy encourage more innovation? In this chapter, I review some of the empirical findings from various recent studies on innovation and firm dynamics that can shed light on the design of innovation policy. The discussion in the chapter is divided into three categories: (i) firm studies, (ii) inventor studies, and (iii) idea (patent) studies.

Innovation and Growth: Theory

This survey reviews the literature on firm dynamics, innovation and growth aiming to better understand the main channels through which innovation affects the performance of modern economies. Since innovations fundamentally diffuse through a complex process of firm and product creation and destruction, this survey concentrates on the recent literature on firm dynamics and innovation.

Entrepreneurial Human Capital and Firm Dynamics

This paper shows that entrepreneurial human capital is a key driver of firm dynamics using administrative panel data on the universe of firms and workers in Portugal. Firms started by more educated entrepreneurs are larger at entry and exhibit higher life cycle growth. Consistent with an effect on growth, the thickness of the right tail of the size distribution increases with entrepreneur schooling. The evidence points to several underlying mechanisms, with technology adoption playing the most important part. I develop and estimate a model of firm dynamics that can parsimoniously account for these findings, and use it to draw aggregate implications. Accounting for the effect of entrepreneurial human capital on firm dynamics can substantially increase aggregate returns to schooling and the fraction of cross-country income differences explained by human and physical capital.