Exchange Rate Shocks and Quality Adjustments

Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that refreshes its product line twice-yearly, we document that higher quality products are more profitable than lower quality ones, but that the number of high quality products experiences a relative decrease after a large ruble devaluation in 2014. We show that rising firm costs–and not shrinking consumer incomes–explains the reallocation, and rationalize the data with a model that features consumer expenditure switching between high and low qualities. The reallocation to lower quality products reduces average pass-through by 26%.

Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.

The Welfare Consequences of Income-Induced Expenditure Switching

Bems and di Giovanni (2016) establish that income-induced expenditure switching (IIES) from foreign goods to cheaper domestic substitutes played a significant role in external rebalancing during the 2008-2009 financial crisis in Latvia. In this paper, we examine the welfare consequences of IIES under different external sector rebalancing scenarios. We find that IIES reduced the negative welfare consequences that accompany external rebalancing by between 12-17 percent. We also show, using a historical decomposition, that IIES accounted for 18 percent of the 2008-2009 collapse in imports, which is greater than the 14 percent contribution due to the conventional price-induced expenditure switching channel.

Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates

We examine how cross-border input linkages shape the response of demand for value added to international relative price changes. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes. Spillovers via input linkages lower the sensitivity of the value-added REER to price changes by supply chain partners because they counterbalance demand-side expenditure switching. Input linkages also raise the price elasticity of demand relative to the conventional REER framework, making demand more sensitive to REER changes. Using global input-output data, we demonstrate that these conceptual insights are quantitatively important in a case study of European competitiveness. (JEL E31, F23, F31, L14)

Income-Induced Expenditure Switching

This paper shows that an income effect can drive expenditure switching between domestic and imported goods. We use a unique Latvian scanner-level dataset, covering the 2008–2009 crisis, to document several empirical findings. First, expenditure switching accounted for one-third of the fall in imports, and took place within narrowly defined product groups. Second, there was no corresponding within-group change in relative prices. Third, consumers substituted from expensive imports to cheaper domestic alternatives. These findings motivate us to estimate a model of nonhomothetic consumer demand, which explains two-thirds of the observed expenditure switching. Estimated switching is driven by income, not changes in relative prices. (JEL E21, F14, F31, F32, I11, L81)