Does External Debt Service Devalue Local Currency in the Long Run? Empirical Evidence from Egypt

The aim of this study is to identify the extent to which there is an effect of external debt service on the exchange rate in Egypt in the long run, where the change in the exchange rate has great importance in changing currency value and thus affecting its function as a store of value and a standard for forward payments and then in the redistribution of income and wealth, It also has an effect on some macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, exports, imports, and thus the current account. The study examines the estimation of the long-run relationship between the external debt service and the exchange rate in Egypt in the period 1980-2019 and relies on the exchange rate of the dollar against the Egyptian pound as a dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were the external debt service, gross capital formation, broad money growth, deposit interest rate, household final consumption expenditure, gross savings, and terms of trade adjustment. The methodology is based on Vector Error Correction (VEC) and the study concluded that there is a significant long-term relationship between the value of the Egyptian pound and all the variables explained in the study, as the error correction coefficient is negative and significant. Also, there is an inverse statistically significant relationship between the value of the Egyptian pound and each of the external debt service, the deposit interest rate, and gross savings; any change of 1% in the external debt service, the deposit interest rate, and gross savings leads to a devaluation of the Egyptian pound against the dollar by 4.8%, 0.04%, and 0.05%, respectively. The study also concluded that there is a positive, statistically significant relationship in the long term between the value of the Egyptian pound and each of gross capital formation, broad money growth, households' and NPISHs' final consumption expenditure, and terms of trade adjustment, as any change of 1% in these variables leads to an increase in the value of the Egyptian pound by 0.16%, 0.05%, 0.27%, and 6%, respectively. This study recommends that decision makers consider all the reasons that would reduce the external debt service in order to preserve the value of the Egyptian currency in the long run.

Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy

Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capital controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial constraints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncooperative use of capital controls ineffective as crisis management policy. Effective use of capital controls for crisis management requires international cooperation. (JEL F23, F38, F41, G01, H21, H25)

State of Agricultural Finance in India

Agricultural finance has come a long way in the past 15 years. After the concerted efforts of GOI, supported by RBI and NABARD, towards doubling of agricultural credit flow in 2004¬¬¬¬--2005, the growth in credit flow to the sector has been robust with an impressive CAGR of 18% between 2004--2005 and 2019--2020. While outreach increased, the Terms of Trade (Farmers and Non-farmers) has largely been on a declining trend, reflecting the underlying stressed conditions in farming. There is a challenge of inclusion, where small and marginal farmers continue to struggle for suitable and affordable credit products and access. This book summarizes the current state of agricultural finance in India, highlighting policy blind spots and grey areas. It documents the important advancements made in the agri-finance space in the last few years. The book covers various aspects of Agri-Finance Policy; institutional appetite and architecture for agriculture credit; formal financial services for enterprises in agriculture; agri-business, including FPOs; and innovations in credit, insurance, delivery mechanisms for agri-sector.

Macroeconomic Factors Determining the Growth of Pakistan

This study attempts to explore the relation ofExternal Debt, Terms of Trade, Education,Military expenditures, Consumer Price Index, and GrossDomestic Production of Pakistan throughout 1997-2019. Toestimate the targeted objectives of this research AutoRegressive Distributive Lags (ARDL) technique was used. Theresults revealed some facts that Military expenditures andeducation were essential to achieve the goal of the high growthrate of the economy in the form of Gross Domestic Production.So policymakers should adopt strong strategies. Educationshould be as skilled and technical as possible and producemilitary equipment to save foreign exchange. CPI, TOT, andExd should be properly regulated because of their negativeimpact on GDP. CPI affects the people, so fiscal policy shouldbe adopted. Without external debt, governments feel helpless,so breaking this trap is essential for dignity and development.The model has a dampening convergence towards equilibrium

Notes For a Discussion on Unequal Exchange and the Marxist Theory of Dependency

The debate on the decline of the terms of trade in dependent countries was never fully integrated into the Marxist theory of dependency. The attempt to articulate it through the category of unequal exchange was not particularly systematic. This paper seeks to recover those debates and will attempt to account for the relevant articulations in the light of a present revitalisation of studies in the field of Marxist dependency theory. To this end, we will recover the classical discussions around unequal exchange in order to discuss their points of contact with the Marxist theory of dependency and some contemporary debates around the transfer of value and the super-exploitation of labour and nature.

Does Terms of Trade Matter for Economic Growth? A Focus on Natural Resource-Rich Sub-Saharan African Countries

The contention that deteriorating terms of trade exists in countries that rely heavily on the exploitation and export of natural resources motivated us in this study. We therefore sought to investigate the impact of terms of trade on economic growth in natural resource-rich sub-Saharan African countries. We carried out the study using annual series that span a period of 1990-2019 under the framework of panel Random and Fixed effects. Our findings indicate that a long run relationship exists between GDP and the explanatory variables used in the study. Results also show that, while cross-section random effects indicates that terms of trade positively impacts on GDP, period fixed effects shows that terms of trade negatively impacts on GDP even though it is not significant. Results of our study also show that in all the models, labour force total and FDI have positive impact on GDP, while trade openness impacts on GDP negatively. We therefore recommend that the SSA natural resource-rich countries should diversify their economies away from the traditional natural resources base. Also human capital should be improved through sound education and training, while all the bottlenecks that constrain the inflow of foreign direct investment should be dismantled.