Abstract. Large amounts of carbon flow through tropical ecosystems every year, from
which a part is sequestered in biomass through tree growth. However, the
effects of ongoing warming and drying on tree growth and carbon
sequestration in tropical forest is still highly uncertain. Field
observations are sparse and limited to a few sites, while remote sensing
analysis shows diverging growth responses to past droughts that cannot be
interpreted with confidence. To reconcile data from field observations and
remote sensing, we collated in situ measurements of stem growth and leaf litterfall
from inventory plots across the Amazon region and other neotropical
ecosystems. These data were used to train two machine-learning models and to
evaluate model performance on reproducing stem growth and litterfall rates.
The models utilized multiple climatological variables and other geospatial
datasets (terrain, soil and vegetation properties) as explanatory variables.
The output consisted of monthly estimates of leaf litterfall (R2= 0.71, NRMSE = 9.4 %) and stem growth (R2= 0.54, NRMSE = 10.6 %) across the neotropics from 1982 to 2019 at a high spatial
resolution (0.1∘). Modelled time series allow us to assess the
impacts of the 2005 and 2015 droughts in the Amazon basin on regional
scales. The more severe 2015 drought was estimated to have caused widespread
declines in stem growth (−1.8σ), coinciding with enhanced leaf fall
(+1.4σ), which were only locally apparent in 2005. Regions in the
Amazon basin that flushed leaves at the onset of both droughts (+0.9σ∼+2.0σ) showed positive anomalies in
remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index, while sun-induced fluorescence
and vegetation optical depth were reduced. The previously observed
counterintuitive response of canopy green-up during drought in the Amazon
basin detected by many remote sensing analyses can therefore be a result of
enhanced leaf flushing at the onset of a drought. The long-term estimates of
leaf litterfall and stem growth point to a decline in stem growth and a
simultaneous increase in leaf litterfall in the Amazon basin since 1982.
These trends are associated with increased warming and drying of the
Amazonian climate and could point to a further decline in the Amazon carbon
sink strength.