scholarly journals The Indian summer monsoon climate during the Last Millennium, as simulated by the PMIP3

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charan Teja Tejavath ◽  
Ashok Karumuri ◽  
Supriyo Chakraborty ◽  
Rengasamy Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Summer Temperatures

Abstract. In this study, using the available model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June–September; JJAS) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (CE 850–1849; LM) for which conventional observations are unavailable, with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; CE 1000–1199 as against the CE 950–AD1350 from the proxy-observations) and Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1550–1749 as against the CE 1500–1850 proxy observations. Out of the eight available models, by validating the corresponding simulated global and Indian mean summer temperatures and mean Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), and their respective trends, from historical simulations (CMIP5) against the various observed/reanalysed datasets for the 1901–2005 period. From this exercise, we identify seven realistic models. The models simulate higher (lower) mean summer temperatures in India as well as globally during the MWP (LIA) as compared to the corresponding LM statistics, in conformation with several proxy studies. Our Analysis shows a strong negative correlation between the NINO3.4 index and the ISMR and a positive correlation between NINO3.4 and summer temperature over India during the LM, as is observed in the last one-and-half centuries. The magnitude of the simulated ISMR-NINO3.4 index correlations, as seen from the multi-model mean, is found to be higher for the MWP (−0.19; significant at 95 % confidence level) as compared to that for the LIA (−0.09; insignificant). Our analysis also shows that the above (below) LM-mean summer temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively more (less) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to the La Niñas. Distribution of boreal summer velocity potential at 850 hPa in the central tropical pacific and a zone of anomalous convergence in the central tropical pacific, flanked by two zones of divergence in the equatorial pacific, suggesting a westward shift in Walker circulation as compared to the current day signal. The anomalous divergence centre in the west also extends into the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, which results in an anomalous convergence zone over India and therefore excess rainfall during the MWP as compared to the LM. The results are qualitative, given the inter-model spread.

scholarly journals The ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon climate through the Last Millennium as simulated by the PMIP3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charan Teja Tejavath ◽  
Karumuri Ashok ◽  
Supriyo Chakraborty ◽  
Rengaswamy Ramesh
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. Using seven model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the mean summer (June–September) climate and its variability in India during the Last Millennium (LM; CE 850–1849) with emphasis on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA), after validation of the simulated current day climate and trends. We find that the above (below) LM-mean summer global temperatures during the MWP (LIA) are associated with relatively higher (lower) number of concurrent El Niños as compared to La Niñas. The models simulate higher (lower) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the MWP (LIA). This is notwithstanding a strong simulated negative correlation between the timeseries of NINO3.4 index and that of the area-averaged ISMR, Interestingly, the percentage of strong El Niños (La Niñas) causing negative (positive) ISMR anomalies is higher in the LIA (MWP), a non-linearity that apparently is important for causing higher ISMR in the MWP. Distribution of simulated boreal summer velocity potential at 850 hPa during MWP in models, in general, shows a zone of anomalous convergence in the central tropical Pacific flanked by two zones of divergence, suggesting a westward shift in the Walker circulation as compared to the simulations for LM as well as and a majority of historical simulations, and current day observed signal. The anomalous divergence centre in the west also extends into the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in an anomalous convergence zone over India and therefore excess rainfall during the MWP as compared to the LM; the results are qualitative, given the inter-model spread.

Dependence of Indian summer monsoon rainfall forecast skill of CFSv2 on initial conditions and the role of bias in SST boundary forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stella Jes Varghese ◽  
Kavirajan Rajendran ◽  
Sajani Surendran ◽  
Arindam Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Summer Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Central Pacific

<p>Indian summer monsoon seasonal reforecasts by CFSv2, initiated from January (4-month lead time, L4) through May (0-month lead time, L0) initial conditions (ICs), are analysed to investigate causes for the highest Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) forecast skill of CFSv2 with February (3-month lead time, L3) ICs. Although theory suggests forecast skill should degrade with increase in lead-time, CFSv2 shows highest skill with L3, due to its forecasting of ISMR excess of 1983 which other ICs failed to forecast. In contrast to observation, in CFSv2, ISMR extremes are largely decided by sea surface temperature (SST) variation over central Pacific (NINO3.4) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where ISMR excess (deficit) is associated with La Niña (El Niño) or cooling (warming) over NINO3.4. In 1983, CFSv2 with L3 ICs forecasted strong La Niña during summer, which resulted in 1983 ISMR excess. In contrast, in observation, near normal SSTs prevailed over NINO3.4 and ISMR excess was due to variation of convection over equatorial Indian Ocean, which CFSv2 fails to capture with all ICs. CFSv2 reforecasts with late-April/early-May ICs are found to have highest deterministic ISMR forecast skill, if 1983 is excluded and Indian monsoon seasonal biases are also reduced. During the transitional ENSO in Boreal summer of 1983, faster and intense cooling of NINO3.4 SSTs in L3, could be due to larger dynamical drift with longer lead time of forecasting, compared to L0. Boreal summer ENSO forecast skill is also found to be lowest for L3 which gradually decreases from June to September. Rainfall occurrence with strong cold bias over NINO3.4, is because of the existence of stronger ocean-atmosphere coupling in CFSv2, but with a shift of the SST-rainfall relationship pattern to slightly colder SSTs than the observed. Our analysis suggests the need for a systematic approach to minimize bias in SST boundary forcing in CFSv2, to achieve improved ISMR forecasts.</p>

scholarly journals Late-Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability revealed from a 3300-year-long lake sediment record from Nir’pa Co, southeastern Tibet

The Holocene ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 541-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Broxton W Bird ◽  
Yanbin Lei ◽  
Melanie Perello ◽  
Pratigya J Polissar ◽  
Tandong Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Lake Sediment ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Lake Levels ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Sedimentological and geochemical results from Nir’pa Co, an alpine lake on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, detail late-Holocene Indian summer monsoon (ISM) hydroclimate during the last 3300 years. Constrained by modern calibration, elevated silt and lithics and low sand and clay between 3.3 and 2.4 ka and 1.3 ka and the present indicate two pluvial phases with lake levels near their current overflow elevation. Between 2.4 and 1.3 ka, a sharp increase in sand and corresponding decrease in lithics and silt suggest drier conditions and lower lake levels at Nir’pa Co. Hydroclimate expressions in the sedimentological proxies during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) are not statistically significant, suggesting that these events were minor compared to the millennial scale variability on which they were superimposed. However, decreasing sand and increasing lithics and silt during the MCA between 950 and 800 cal. yr BP may suggest briefly wetter conditions, while increasing sand and reduced lithics and silt from 500 to 200 cal. yr BP suggest potentially drier conditions during the LIA. Similarities with regional records from lake sediment and ice cores and speleothem records from the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau, India, and the Arabian Sea, suggest generally coherent late-Holocene ISM variability in these regions. Increased late-Holocene ISM intensity occurred during times when Tibetan Plateau surface air temperatures were warmer, Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures were elevated, and the tropical Pacific was in a La Niña–like mean state. Conversely, aridity between 2.4 and 1.3 ka occurred in concert with cooling on the Tibetan Plateau and in the Indo-Pacific with more El Niño–like conditions in the tropical Pacific. Differences with western Tibetan records may reflect a weakened ISM and stronger westerlies in this region during the late-Holocene.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document