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2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Turner ◽  
Natalie J. Burls ◽  
Anna von Brandis ◽  
Joke Lübbecke ◽  
Martin Claus

AbstractInterannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Atlantic Ocean lead to anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns with important ecological and socioeconomic consequences for the semiarid regions of sub-Saharan Africa and northeast Brazil. This interannual SST variability is characterized by three modes: an Atlantic meridional mode featuring an anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient that peaks in boreal spring; an Atlantic zonal mode (Atlantic Niño mode) with SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region that peaks in boreal summer; and a second zonal mode of variability with eastern equatorial SST anomalies peaking in boreal winter. Here we investigate the extent to which there is any seasonality in the relationship between equatorial warm water recharge and the development of eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies. Seasonally stratified cross-correlation analysis between eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies and equatorial heat content anomalies (evaluated using warm water volume and sea surface height) indicate that while equatorial heat content changes do occasionally play a role in the development of boreal summer Atlantic zonal mode events, they contribute more consistently to Atlantic Niño II, boreal winter events. Event and composite analysis of ocean adjustment with a shallow water model suggest that the warm water volume anomalies originate mainly from the off-equatorial northwestern Atlantic, in agreement with previous studies linking them to anomalous wind stress curl associated with the Atlantic meridional mode.


Author(s):  
Lijing Cheng ◽  
John Abraham ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
John Fasullo ◽  
Tim Boyer ◽  
...  

AbstractThe increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ (1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by 16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Mu ◽  
Yuehan Cui ◽  
Shijin Yuan ◽  
Bo Qin

Abstract. The global impact of an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event can differ greatly depending on whether it is an Eastern-Pacific-type (EP-type) event or a Central-Pacific-type (CP-type) event. Reliable predictions of the two types of ENSO are therefore of critical importance. Here we construct a deep neural network with multichannel structure for ENSO (named ENSO-MC) to simulate the spatial evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the two types of events. We select SST, heat content, and wind stress (i.e., three key ingredients of Bjerknes feedback) to represent coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics that underpins ENSO, achieving skillful forecasts for the spatial patterns of SST anomalies out to one year ahead. Furthermore, it is of great significance to analyze the precursors of EP-type or CP-type events and identify targeted observation sensitive area for the understanding and prediction of ENSO. Precursors analysis is to determine what type of initial perturbations will develop into EP-type or CP-type events. Sensitive area identification is to determine the regions where initial states tend to have greatest impacts on evolution of ENSO. We use saliency map method to investigate the subsurface precursors and identify the sensitive areas of ENSO. The results show that there are pronounced signals in the equatorial subsurface before EP events, while the precursory signals of CP events are located in the North Pacific. It indicates that the subtropical precursors seem to favor the generation of the CP-type El Niño and the EP-type El Niño is more related to the tropical thermocline dynamics. And the saliency maps show that the sensitive areas of the surface and the subsurface are located in the equatorial central Pacific and the equatorial western Pacific, respectively. The sensitivity experiments imply that additional observations in the identified sensitive areas can improve forecasting skills. Our results of precursors and sensitive areas are consistent with the previous theories of ENSO, demonstrating the potential usage and advantages of the ENSO-MC model in improving the simulation, understanding and observations of two ENSO types.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-150
Author(s):  
Y. SADHURAM ◽  
B. PRABHAKARA RAO ◽  
V. SUBBA RAO ◽  
T. V. N. RAO

Diurnal variability of surface wind speed, net heat exchange, sea surface temperature, vertical thermal structure and heat content at three locations, viz., station A (17° 59'N, 83° 53.9'E), station B (17° OO'N , 82° 32.1'E) and station C (16° 31..3' N, 82° 21..8'E) off central east coast of India is described making use of the data collected on board R.V. Gaveshani during April 1989 .


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 3-23
Author(s):  
V. I. Byshev ◽  
M. V. Anisimov ◽  
A. V. Gusev ◽  
A. N. Sidorova

One of the most remarkable peculiarities of the modern climate, undoubtedly, should be recognized as the climatic shift observed in the mid-70s of the last century. The reasons for this phenomenon for a long time, despite the activation of climatologists from all over the world, remained a mystery that requires its disclosure. First of all, this was due to the fact that the shift that took place turned out to be unexpected for scientists and was accompanied by rapid qualitative changes in the planetary climate. To date, thanks to the efforts of scientists using the results of rapidly developing numerical modeling, diagnostic calculations and observational data in large hydrophysical experiments in various regions of the World Ocean (WO), an understanding of the role of the ocean factor in the variability of the current climate has developed. It became clear that climatic shifts are an important feature of the internal dynamics of the climate system. The most obvious evidence of intrasystemic processes should be considered the discovered planetary structures in the atmosphere – Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) and in the ocean – Multi-decadal Oscillation of the Heat content in the Ocean (MOHO), which are quasi-synchronous accompanying variations in the modern climate. GAO, its structure and features have been discussed in detail earlier in a number of studies. As for the MOHO, its structure and features are discussed in the proposed work. It is characteristic that the MOHO is located in the layer of the main thermocline (100-600 m). In a quasi-uniform layer (0–100 m), and in a deep layer (600-5500 m), the thermodynamic regime differs from the regime in the layer of the main thermocline. Probably, it is precisely this circumstance that did not allow earlier to draw attention to such an important detail in the structure of the WO thermodynamic variability. The presence of extreme multi-decadal temperature field disturbances at intermediate levels (200, 300, 400, 500, 600 m) should be noted as an important characteristic feature of the oscillation. Large-scale hydrophysical experiments (POLYGON-70, POLYMODE, etc.) made it possible to reveal the vortex structure in the dynamics of WO waters and to discover that the vortices of the open ocean have maxima of kinetic energy precisely in the layer of the main thermocline. This allows us to assume a connection between synoptic eddy activity and MOHO. However, the latter remains to be studied.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksei Seleznev ◽  
Dmitry Mukhin

Abstract It is well-known that the upper ocean heat content (OHC) variability in the tropical Pacific contains valuable information about dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we combine sea surface temperature (SST) and OHC indices derived from the gridded datasets to construct a phase space for data-driven ENSO models. Using a Bayesian optimization method, we construct linear as well as nonlinear models for these indices. We find that the joint SST-OHC optimal models yield significant benefits in predicting both the SST and OHC as compared with the separate SST or OHC models. It is shown that these models substantially reduces seasonal predictability barriers in each variable – the spring barrier in the SST index and the winter barrier in the OHC index. We also reveal the significant nonlinear relationships between the ENSO variables manifesting on interannual scales, which opens prospects for improving yearly ENSO forecasting.


Abstract Upper-ocean heat content and heat fluxes of 10-60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) were examined using high-resolution currents and hydrographic fields measured at five deep-water moorings in the central Bay of Bengal (BoB) and satellite observations as part of an international effort examining the role of the ocean on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) in the BoB. Currents, temperature and salinity were sampled over the upper 600 to 1200 m from July 2018 -June 2019. The 10-60-day velocity ISOs of magnitudes 20-30 cm s−1 were observed in the upper 200 m, and temperature ISOs as large as 3°C were observed in the thermocline near 100 m. The wavelet co-spectral analysis reveals multiple periods of ISOs carrying heat southward. The meridional heat-flux divergence associated with the 10-60-day band was strongest in the central BoB at depths between 40 and 100 m, where the averaged flux divergence over the observational period is as large as 10−7 ° C s−1. The vertically-integrated heat-flux-divergence in the upper 200 m is about 20-30 Wm−2, which is comparable to the annual-average net surface heat flux in the northern BoB. Correlations between the heat content over the 26° C isotherm and the outgoing longwave radiation indicate that the atmospheric forcing typically leads changes of the oceanic-heat content, but in some instances, during fall-winter months, oceanic-heat content leads the atmospheric convection. Our analyses suggest that ISOs play an important role in the upper-ocean heat balance by transporting heat southward, while aiding the air-sea coupling at ISO time scales.


MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30
Author(s):  
M, G. JOSEPH ◽  
P.V. HAREESH KUMAR ◽  
P. MADHUSOODANAN

 Upper ocean (200 m) response under the pre-onset, and active regimes of southwest (SW) monsoonal forcing at 0°N. 60°E in the Indian Ocean was analysed utilising time series data collection during Indo-Soviet Monsoon Experiment, 1973 (ISMEX- 73). Oceanic response under the pre-onset domination of the wind stress momentum and onset domination of buoyancy flux (B0) was apparent in shoaling/warming and deepening/cooling (12 m/0.50 C in 4 days) of Mixed Layer Depth (MLD). The pre-onset increase was followed by an onset decrease in below layer thermohaline/density gradient and disappearance of Sub-surface Salinity Maximum (SSM). Corespondingly, MLD and its heat content (HCMLD ) were more correlated to (B0) and QN . Upper ocean response during active regime manifested in deepening/colling (20 m/1C in 6 days) of MLD under dominant production of turbulent kinetic energy by wind stress except for the convectively dominant mixing at the beginning and end. With reduction in below-layer thermohaline/density gradient and absence of SSM the correlations between MLD B0 wind stress, QN and HCMLD became insignificant due to increased advective flux during active regime. One dimensional simulation of mixed layer paramerters showed agreement.


2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Saynisch-Wagner ◽  
Julien Baerenzung ◽  
Aaron Hornschild ◽  
Christopher Irrgang ◽  
Maik Thomas

AbstractSatellite-measured tidal magnetic signals are of growing importance. These fields are mainly used to infer Earth’s mantle conductivity, but also to derive changes in the oceanic heat content. We present a new Kalman filter-based method to derive tidal magnetic fields from satellite magnetometers: KALMAG. The method’s advantage is that it allows to study a precisely estimated posterior error covariance matrix. We present the results of a simultaneous estimation of the magnetic signals of 8 major tides from 17 years of Swarm and CHAMP data. For the first time, robustly derived posterior error distributions are reported along with the reported tidal magnetic fields. The results are compared to other estimates that are either based on numerical forward models or on satellite inversions of the same data. For all comparisons, maximal differences and the corresponding globally averaged RMSE are reported. We found that the inter-product differences are comparable with the KALMAG-based errors only in a global mean sense. Here, all approaches give values of the same order, e.g., 0.09 nT-0.14 nT for M2. Locally, the KALMAG posterior errors are up to one order smaller than the inter-product differences, e.g., 0.12 nT vs. 0.96 nT for M2. Graphical Abstract


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