Global-scale interdecadal variability a skillful predictor at decadal-to-multidecadal timescales for Sahelian and Indian Monsoon Rainfall

In the present study, a sea surface temperature-based index named global-scale interdecadal variability (GIV) encompassing the combined variability of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) has been proposed. The warm phase of GIV exhibits a “cold AMO-like” pattern in the Atlantic basin and a “warm IPO-like” pattern in the Pacific basin. About 84% (R ~−0.914) of Sahelian and 42% (R ~−0.647) of Indian rainfall’s temporal variance is attributed to GIV, showing substantial improvement compared to the variance explained by AMO and IPO individually. The physical mechanism for GIV-rainfall teleconnection is related to a modification of the Walker circulation. Although there is a substantial degree of uncertainty in the current generation of state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), some still replicate the observed GIV’s spatial structure, its teleconnection, and associated physical mechanism. The results presented herein advance our knowledge about rainfall’s interdecadal variability and have imperative ramifications for developing skillful decadal predictions.

Millennial variability of terrigenous transport to the central-southern Peruvian margin during the last deglaciation (18–13 kyr BP)

Reconstructing precipitation and wind from the geological record could help to understand the potential changes in precipitation and wind dynamics in response to climate change in Peru. The last deglaciation offers natural experimental conditions to test precipitation and wind dynamics response to high latitude forcing. While considerable research has been done to reconstruct precipitation variability during the last deglaciation in the Atlantic sector of South America, the Pacific sector of South America has received little attention. This work aims to fill this gap by reconstructing types of terrigenous transport to the central-southern Peruvian margin (12° S and 14º S) during the last deglaciation (18–13 kyr BP). For this purpose, we used grain-size distribution in sediments of marine core M77/2-005-3 (Callao, 12º S) and G14 (Pisco, 14º S). We analyzed end-members (EM) to identify grain-size components and reconstruct potential sources and transport processes of terrigenous material across time. We identified four end-members for both Callao and Pisco sediments. In Callao, we propose that changes in EM4 (101 μm) and EM2 (58 μm) contribution mainly reflect hydrodynamic energy and diffuse sources, respectively, while EM3 (77 um) and EM1 (11 μm) variations reflect changes in aeolian and fluvial inputs, respectively. In Pisco, changes in the contribution of EM1 (10 μm) reflect changes in river inputs while EM2 (52 μm), EM3 (75 μm) and EM4 (94 μm) reflect an aeolian origin linked to surface winds. At millennial-scale, our record shows an increase of the fluvial inputs during the last part of Heinrich Stadial 1 (~ 16–14.7 kyr BP) at both locations. This increase was linked to higher precipitation in Andes related to a reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and meltwater discharge in North Atlantic. In contrast, during Bølling-Allerød (~ 14.7–13 kyr BP), there was an aeolian input increase, associated with stronger winds and lower precipitation that indicate an expansion of the South Pacific Subtropical High. These conditions would correspond to a northern displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone-South Subtropical High system associated with a stronger Walker circulation. Our results suggest that variations in river discharge and changes in surface wind intensity in the western margin of South America during the last deglaciation were sensitive to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variations and Walker circulation on millennial timescales. In the context of global warming, large-scale precipitation and fluvial discharge increases in the Andes related to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation decline and southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone should be considered.

Inter-basin interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans depending on the phase of Pacific decadal Oscillation and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation

The authors investigated the inter-basin interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans depending on the phase relationship of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)/Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) based on observations and idealized model experiments. When the AMO and the PDO are in-phase (i.e., +PDO/+AMO or −PDO/-AMO), the Pacific Ocean regulates the SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean with altering a Walker circulation. During this period, there is a negative SST-precipitation relationship in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean where the atmosphere forces the ocean. In contrast, when they are out-of-phase (i.e., either +PDO/-AMO or −PDO/+AMO), the Atlantic Ocean influences the equatorial Pacific Ocean by modifying Walker circulation, resulting in a westward shift of a center of convective forcing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean compared to that during an inphase relationship of PDO/AMO. During this period, a positive SST-precipitation relationship is dominant in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean where the ocean forces the atmosphere. To verify this result, we conducted pacemaker experiments using the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM3). Model results supported our findings obtained from the observations. We infer that the characteristics of the Pacific-Atlantic inter-basin interactions depend on whether the PDO and AMO phases are either in-phase or out of phase.

Decadal variations of Hadley and Walker circulations in the tropics

Preliminary estimate of divergent Hadley and Walker circulation associated with inter-decadal variations in the tropics is made with 50-year reanalysis data and compared with their inter-annual counterparts. Interdecadal and inter-annual components are separated using harmonic analysis and meridional and zonal mass flux stream functions are used to calculate the strength of Hadley and Walker circulations. The magnitude of inter-decadal Hadley and Walker circulation anomalies are shown to be comparable to those associated with dominant inter-annual variations. How superposition of inter-decadal and inter-annual divergent circulations may influence regional climate is discussed.

El Niño-like conditions and seasonal aridity in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the Younger Dryas

Island South-East Asia (ISEA) is a highly humid region and hosts the world’s largest tropical peat deposits. Most of this peat accumulated relatively recently during the Holocene, suggesting a generally drier and/or more seasonal climate during earlier times. Although there is evidence for savanna expansion and drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP), the mechanisms behind hydroclimatic changes during the ensuing deglacial period has received much less attention and are poorly understood. Here we use CESM1 climate model simulations to investigate the key drivers behind ISEA climate at the very end of the last deglacial period, at 12 ka BP. A transient simulation (TRACE) is used to track the climate seasonality and orbitally driven change over time during the deglaciation into the Holocene. In agreement with proxy-evidence, CESM1 simulates overall drier conditions at 12 ka BP. More importantly, ISEA experienced extreme seasonal aridity, in stark contrast to the ever-wet modern climate. We identify that the simulated drying and enhanced seasonality at 12 ka BP is mainly the result of a combination of three factors: 1) large orbital insolation difference between summer and winter in contrast to the LGM and the present day; 2) a stronger winter monsoon caused by a larger interhemispheric thermal gradient in boreal winters; and 3) a major reorganization of the Walker Circulation with an inverted land-sea circulation with a complete breakdown of deep convection over ISEA. The altered atmospheric circulation mean state during winters led to conditions resembling extreme El Niño events in the modern climate and a dissolution of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the region. From these results we infer that terrestrial cooling of ISEA and at least a seasonal reversal of land-sea circulation likely played a major role in delaying tropical peat formation until at least the onset of the Holocene period.

A diagnostic study of interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data

ABSTRACT. Using the monthly outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data obtained from NOAA polar orbiting satellites, during the period 1979-92, composite OLR anomalies in respect of good monsoon years (1983 and 1988), bad monsoon years (1982 and 1987 for the case associated with ENSO and 1979 and 1986 separately for the case without ENSO) and normal monsoon years (1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1991 & 1992) were examined. The computation has been performed over the global tropics (30°N-30°S) bounded between the longitudes 50°E and 130°W (through date line) on 5° longitude × 5° latitude grid. There are significant differences in the spatial distributions of composite OLR anomalies between these four cases from the month of April to September indicating spatial and temporal changes in the organized convective pattern. For the good monsoon years persistent negative anomalies indicating enhanced convective activity were observed over the Indonesian regions, whereas large positive anomalies indicating depressed convective activity were observed over equatorial Pacific just west of date line. During the bad monsoon years above normal convection was observed over Pacific region (ENSO case) and over equatorial Indian Ocean (Non ENSO case). During normal monsoon years the spatial patterns of OLR anomalies were similar to that of good monsoon years, but with weaker anomalies. These observations can be explained through the relative interaction between tropical convergence zone (TCZ) over the Indian sub-continent and that over the north Indian Ocean and Pacific. The eastward shift of the convective activity during El-Nino years can be attributed to shift/reversal of Walker circulation. There are strong signals of OLR anomalies during pre-monsoon months which may be useful in inferring the nature of the subsequent monsoon activity.

The relationship between oceanographic factors and the ENSO period on weather in Maluku

The surrounding waters strongly influence the waters of North Maluku. These waters are the entrance gate for ARLINDO, which is directly related to the Pacific Ocean. To produce scientific knowledge, our study aims to determine the influence of oceanographic factors on the distribution of sea surface temperatures (SST) and wind pattern, which affects the rainfall throughout the west monsoon and transitional seasons in the Indonesian region literacy. We used data from ERDDAP, where SST data was processed using Ocean Data View and wind data using WRPLOT. The SST of North Maluku waters during October 2020-April 2021 ranges from 29.1°C-29.8°C, with the highest sea surface temperature, was seen during November-December 2020 and April 2021. The result demonstrates the highest rainfall data was in February 2021 and the dominant winds come from north and west. These winds bring water vapor particles that become convective clouds that increase rainfall in Indonesia, especially in the eastern region. Meanwhile, SST originating from the Pacific Ocean moved due to the Walker Circulation from the east. This further caused the SST from the Pacific Ocean that brought a warm water move towards Indonesian waters.

Another deficient monsoon 2004 - A comparison with drought year 2002 and possible causes

The rainfall over India as a whole during the summer monsoon season of 2004 was deficient with –13% below normal. Earlier in 2002, India has faced another worst situation when large-scale drought occurred and all India rainfall was below –19%. In the present study, we have compared briefly salient observational features of both the monsoons to find out their distinct characteristics. Comparisons show appearance of many similar as well as contrasting features. Though, both seasons were deficient, their dates of onset of monsoon over Kerala were either before or near the normal date. Progress up to central India was also normal in both the seasons. While Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) during June was good, a few longest stagnation periods during advancing stage in July of both the years made unexpected delay of monsoon in covering entire India. Rainfall of July also suffered the most in both the seasons with a record lowest ISMR in 2002. Not a single depression formed in 2002 while in 2004, their frequency was less than half of normal. Analysis of other large-scale monthly anomalous ocean and atmospheric conditions over Indo-Pacific region including El-Nino conditions confirms that ENSO and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation or EQUINOO have caused drought in July 2002, but not in July 2004. This is because very high typhoon formation and their recurvature with significantly higher than normal convection over northwest Pacific associated with record lowest ISMR in July, 2002 in contrast to occurrence of deficient ISMR in July 2004 which was associated with few typhoon formation and less convection. Also in 2002, Indian region was happened to fall exactly under the subsidence branch of Walker circulation with ascending branch over the western Pacific in the season in contrast to 2004, when subsidence was observed to be both over large part of western Pacific and adjoining Indian region.

Mechanisms determining diversity of ENSO-driven equatorial precipitation anomalies

The longitudinal location of precipitation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific shows a distinctive feature with the westernmost location for La Niña, the easternmost location for eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño and somewhere between for central-Pacific (CP) El Niño, even though the center of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) for La Niña is located slightly east of that of CP El Niño. The mechanisms for such a precipitation diversity were investigated through idealized model simulations and moisture and moist static energy budget analyses. It is revealed that the boundary layer convergence anomalies associated with the precipitation diversity are mainly induced by underlying SSTA through the Lindzen-Nigam mechanism, that is, their longitudinal locations are mainly controlled by the meridional and zonal distributions of the ENSO SSTA. The westward shift of the precipitation anomaly center during La Niña relative to that during CP El Niño is primarily caused by the combined effects of nonlinear zonal moist enthalpy advection anomalies and the Lindzen-Nigam mechanism mentioned above. Such a zonal diversity is further enhanced by the “convection-cloud-longwave radiation” feedback, the SST-induced latent heat flux anomalies and the advection of mean moist enthalpy by anomalous winds. This diversity in the longitudinal location of precipitation anomalies has contributions to the diversities in the longitudinal locations of anomalous Walker Circulation and western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone/cyclone among the three types of ENSO.