Quantifying spread in spatio-temporal changes of upper-ocean heat content estimates: an internationally coordinated comparison

The Earth system is accumulating energy due to human-induced activities. More than 90% of this energy has been stored in the ocean as heat since 1970, with ~64% of that in the upper 700 m. Differences in upper ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) estimates, however, exist. Here, we use a dataset protocol for 1970–2008 – with six instrumental bias adjustments applied to expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, and mapped by six research groups – to evaluate the spatio-temporal spread in upper OHCA estimates arising from two choices: firstly, those arising from instrumental bias adjustments; and secondly those arising from mathematical (i.e. mapping) techniques to interpolate and extrapolate data in space and time. We also examined the effect of a common ocean mask, which reveals that exclusion of shallow seas can reduce global OHCA estimates up to 13%. Spread due to mapping method is largest in the Indian Ocean and in the eddy-rich and frontal regions of all basins. Spread due to XBT bias adjustment is largest in the Pacific Ocean within 30°N–30°S. In both mapping and XBT cases, spread is higher for 1990–2004. Statistically different trends among mapping methods are not only found in the poorly-observed Southern Ocean but also on the well-observed Northwest Atlantic. Our results cannot determine the best mapping or bias adjustment schemes but they identify where important sensitivities exist, and thus where further understanding will help to refine OHCA estimates. These results highlight the need for further coordinated OHCA studies to evaluate the performance of existing mapping methods along with comprehensive assessment of uncertainty estimates.

A Theory of the Spring Persistence Barrier on ENSO. Part III: The role of Tropical Pacific Ocean Heat Content

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between upper ocean heat content (OHC) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies mainly using the neutral recharge oscillator (NRO) model both analytically and numerically. Previous studies showed that spring OHC, which leads SST by 6-12 months, represents a major source of predictability for ENSO. It is suggested that this seasonality is caused by the seasonally varying growth rate in SST anomalies. Moreover, a shortened ENSO period will lead to a reduced SST predictability from OHC, with the most significant decrease occurring in the latter half of the calendar year. The cross-correlation relationship between OHC and ENSO SST anomalies is further identified in damped and self-excited version of the recharge oscillator model. Finally, we suggest that the seasonal growth rate of ENSO anomalies is the cause of the seasonality in the effectiveness of OHC as a predictor in ENSO forecasting. We also explain the shorter lead time between spring OHC and ENSO SST anomalies after the turn of the 21st century in terms of the apparent higher frequency of the ENSO period.

Intrinsic oceanic decadal variability of upper-ocean heat content

Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air–sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear. In particular, such low-frequency variability is difficult to extract from the short observational record, meaning that climate models are the primary tools deployed to resolve this question. Here, we assess how the ocean’s intrinsic variability leads to patterns of upper-ocean heat content that vary at decadal time scales. These patterns have the potential to feed back on the atmosphere and thereby affect climate modes of variability, such as El Niño or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. We use the output from a global ocean–sea ice circulation model at three different horizontal resolutions, each driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis. To disentangle the variability of the ocean’s direct response to atmospheric forcing from the variability due to intrinsic ocean dynamics, we compare model runs driven with inter-annually varying forcing (1958-2019) and model runs driven with repeat-year forcing. Models with coarse resolution that rely on eddy parameterizations, show (i) significantly reduced variance of the upper-ocean heat content at decadal time scales and (ii) differences in the spatial patterns of low-frequency variability compared with higher resolution simulations. Climate projections are typically done with general circulation models with coarse-resolution ocean components. Therefore, these biases affect our ability to predict decadal climate modes of variability and, in turn, hinder climate projections. Our results suggest that for improving climate projections, the community should move towards coupled climate models with higher oceanic resolution.

The Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Cyclone Amphan (2020) and Southwest Monsoon Onset

Cyclone Amphan was an exceptionally strong tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal that achieved a minimum central pressure of 907 mb during its active period in May 2020. In this study, we analyzed the oceanic and surface atmospheric conditions leading up to cyclogenesis, the impact of this storm on the Bay of Bengal, and how the processes that led to cyclogenesis, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Amphan itself, in turn impacted southwest monsoon preconditioning and onset. To accomplish this, we took a multiparameter approach using a combination of near real time satellite observations, ocean model forecasts, and reanalysis to better understand the processes involved. We found that the arrival of a second downwelling Kelvin wave in the equatorial Bay of Bengal, coupled with elevated upper ocean heat content and the positioning of the convective phase of the MJO, helped to create the conditions necessary for cyclogenesis, where the northward-propagating branch of the MJO acted as a trigger for cyclogenesis. This same MJO event, in conjunction with Amphan, heavily contributed atmospheric moisture to the southeastern Arabian Sea and established low-level westerlies that allowed for the southwest monsoon to climatologically onset on June 1.

Can Tropical Pacific Winds Enhance the Footprint of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on the Upper-Ocean Heat Content in the South China Sea?

In this study, an enhanced footprint of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) on the upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the South China Sea (SCS) since the 1990s is revealed. The negative OHC–IPO correlation is significant (r = −0.71) during 1990–2010 [period 2 (P2)], whereas it is statistically insignificant during 1960–80 [period 1 (P1)]. Analyses show that the scope of the equatorial Pacific wind anomalies is wider during P2 compared with that during P1 due to a larger east–west SST gradient and enhanced tropical warming in the Indian Ocean. When the IPO is negative during P2, a wider scope of the wind stress anomalies associated with the IPO could lead to 1) the southward migration of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude (NECBL) by affecting the wind stress curl over the key region where it is near the climatological NECBL and 2) an increase in the interbasin pressure gradient (sea surface height difference) between the western Pacific and the SCS; these two processes strengthen the Kuroshio and weaken the Luzon Strait transport (LST) or SCS throughflow into the SCS. Also, 3) the equatorial Pacific wind anomalies are wide enough to directly weaken the LST in the SCS through the “island rule.” These three pathways finally change the oceanic gyre in the SCS and increase the OHC. Our results suggest that the scope of the tropical wind stress is the crucial factor when we consider the relationship between the upper ocean thermal conditions in the SCS and the Pacific variability.

Anomalous Oceanic Conditions in the Central and Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the 2014 Hurricane Season and Relationships to Three Major Hurricanes

The 2014 Northeast Pacific hurricane season was highly active, with above-average intensity and frequency events, and a rare landfalling Hawaiian hurricane. We show that the anomalous northern extent of sea surface temperatures and anomalous vertical extent of upper ocean heat content above 26 °C throughout the Northeast and Central Pacific Ocean may have influenced three long-lived tropical cyclones in July and August. Using a variety of satellite-observed and -derived products, we assess genesis conditions, along-track intensity, and basin-wide anomalous upper ocean heat content during Hurricanes Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio. The anomalously northern surface position of the 26 °C isotherm beyond 30° N to the north and east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2014 created very high sea surface temperatures throughout much of the Central Pacific. Analysis of basin-wide mean conditions confirm higher-than-average storm activity during strong positive oceanic thermal anomalies. Positive anomalies of 15–50 kJ cm−2 in the along-track upper ocean heat content for these three storms were observed during the intensification phase prior to peak intensity, advocating for greater understanding of the ocean thermal profile during tropical cyclone genesis and development.

Dramatic reduction and quick recovery of the South Indian Ocean heat content and sea level in 2014-2019

<p>The interannual-to-decadal variability of heat content and sea level in the South Indian Ocean (SIO) is strongly influenced by its connection with the Pacific and large-scale climatic forcing in the Indo-Pacific region primarily associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Besides the advection by the Indonesian Throughflow, signals generated in the Pacific can enter the SIO as coastally trapped Kelvin waves and propagate along the coast of Western Australia. In the southeast tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean, these signals along the eastern boundary can radiate westward as Rossby waves and eventually impact sea level and heat content in the SIO interior and near the western boundary. Local wind forcing, through Ekman pumping over the open ocean and coastal upwelling, is also able to generate Rossby waves and/or modify those emanated from the eastern boundary.</p><p>As measured by Argo floats and satellite altimetry, a decade-long increase of the upper-ocean heat content and sea level in the SIO in 2004-2013 ended with a remarkable drop returning to the initial values in 2004. This basin-wide heat release was associated with one of the strongest on record El Niño events in 2014-2016. Surprisingly, the basin-averaged heat content and sea level quickly recovered during the weak La Niña event in 2017-2019. Here we present an analysis of the evolution and mechanisms of 2014-2016 cooling and subsequent warming in the SIO subtropical gyre. We show that the 2014-2016 El Niño did contribute to the reduced heat content in the eastern SIO, while the local wind forcing (via increased Ekman upwelling) largely contributed to the heat reduction in the western SIO. We find no evidence to support that the 2017-2018 warming was forced by the weak La Niña, because the upper-ocean heat content in eastern SIO was still below normal during 2016-2018. The recovery largely occurred in the western SIO due to local wind forcing (via increased Ekman downwelling) primarily associated with changes in the strength of the southeasterly trade winds.</p><p>Because sea level is a good proxy for the oceanic heat content in the SIO, we extend our analysis back to 1993 using satellite altimetry records. Using a simple model of wind-forced Rossby waves, we estimate the relative contributions of sea level signals propagating from the eastern boundary, the origin of which is strongly linked to ENSO, and the local wind forcing in the SIO interior to the observed sea level variability. The local wind forcing appears to dominate the sea level (and, hence, the upper-ocean heat content) variability in the western SIO, especially in 2013-2019, while the ENSO-related signals are dominant in the eastern SIO. The local wind forcing over the SIO interior effectively suppressed the cooling associated with the most recent 2014-2016 El Niño event. In contrast, the cooling associated with the strongest on record 1997-1998 El Niño was amplified by the local wind forcing in the basin’s interior.</p>

Multidecadal changes in ENSO properties in the recharge oscillator conceptual model

<p><span>We use a simple conceptual recharge oscillator model for the tropical Pacific to identify multidecadal changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) statistics and dynamics during the observational record. The model, defined by only two variables, sea surface temperature (SST) and warm water volume (WWV), is fitted to the observations for the period 1901-2010. The variability of ENSO has increased during the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The model simulates similar changes in variance of SST and WWV. The cross-correlation between SST and WWV also shows significant changes during the observational record. From the 1970s onwards, both observations and model output show that the SST drives WWV anomalies with a lead-time of 10 months and the WWV feedbacks onto the SST with a lead-time of about 8 months. The latter is reminiscent of a recharge-discharge mechanism of the upper ocean heat content. Before the 1970s only the impact of SST on WWV, through implied wind changes, is observed and is reproduced by the model. The periodicity of ENSO has also changed; ENSO has become more frequent changing from a 7-yr periodicity in the beginning of 20<sup>th</sup> century to a 5-yr periodicity in the recent decades. We find that the full recharge-discharge mechanism of the equatorial upper ocean heat content that characterizes the dynamics of the ReOsc model is only observed from the 1970s onwards and is likely to be a consequence of a stronger observed coupling between WWV and SST and of the leading role of the thermocline feedback. The</span><span> degrading quality in the observations for earlier periods can also partly explain the decadal changes in the ENSO interactions. We find that the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and global warming can partly explain the observed and simulated multidecadal changes in ENSO properties.</span></p>