scholarly journals Fuzzy approach to analysis of flood risk based on variable fuzzy sets and improved information diffusion methods

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Incomplete Data ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Consistent System ◽  
Variable Fuzzy Sets

Abstract. The predictive analysis of natural disasters and their consequences is challenging because of uncertainties and incomplete data. The present article studies the use of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and improved information diffusion method (IIDM) to construct a composite method. The proposed method aims to integrate multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for catastrophic risk assessment. The fuzzy methodology is proposed in the area of flood disaster risk assessment to improve probability estimation. The purpose of the current study is to establish a fuzzy model to evaluate flood risk with incomplete data sets. The results of the example indicate that the methodology is effective and practical; thus, it has the potential to forecast the flood risk in flood risk management.

scholarly journals Dynamic Risk Assessment of Compound Hazards Based on VFS-IEM-IDM: A Case Study of Typhoon-Rainstorm Hazards in Shenzhen, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenwu Gong ◽  
Jie Jiang ◽  
Lili Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Conditional Probability Distribution ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

Abstract. Typhoons and rainstorms are types of natural hazards that can cause significant impacts. These individual hazards may also occur simultaneously to produce compound hazards, leading to increased losses. The accurate risk assessment of such compound hazards faces several challenges due to the uncertainties in multiple hazards level evaluation, and the incomplete information in historical data sets. In this paper, to deal with these challenges, we propose a risk assessment model called VFS-IEM-IDM based on the Variable Fuzzy Set and Information Diffusion Method. In particular, VFS-IEM-IDM provides a comprehensive evaluation of the compound hazards level, and a predictive cumulative logistic model is used to verify the results. Furthermore, VFS-IEM-IDM applies a normal information diffusion estimator to estimate the conditional probability distribution and the vulnerability distribution of the compound hazards based on the hazards level, the hazards occurrence time, and the corresponding losses. To examine the efficacy of VFS-IEM-IDM, a case study of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards that occurred in Shenzhen, China is presented. The risk assessment results indicate that hazards of level Ⅱ mostly occur in August and October, while hazards of level Ⅲ often occur in September. The risk of the Typhoon-Rainstorm hazards differs in each month and in August and September the risk gets the highest value, and the estimated economic losses are around 114 million RMB and 167 million RMB respectively.

scholarly journals Integrated Flood Risk Assessment System Based on the Set Pair Analysis and Variable Fuzzy Sets for Cascade Dams

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Dam Break ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Cascade Dams ◽  
Pair Analysis ◽  
Variable Fuzzy Sets

Flood-caused dam break is an important dam safety problem. Dam flood risk assessment based on an appropriate assessing method is hence essential for reducing dam-break flood damages and losses. In this research, a comprehensive flood risk assessment system for cascade dams was developed by combining the set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory (namely SPA-VFS for short), and expressing the flood risk as a product of hazard and vulnerability, which were quantified by selected indicators. In the case study of the Dadu river basin, reservoir capacity, dam height, dam age, gross domestic product (GDP) density, population density, and predicted damage were selected as the evaluation indicators, and the evaluation results derived the flood risk classes of each studied dam. The study indicates that the proposed SPA-VFS-based flood risk assessment model is simple and feasible, which enables its further application in flood risk analysis and evaluation, and its extension in the risk assessment of other natural disasters.

A New Risk Assessment System Based on Set Pair Analysis – Variable Fuzzy Sets for Underground Reservoirs

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 4997-5014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Li ◽  
Tianyuan Zheng ◽  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Yunhai Fang ◽  
Jiang Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Pair Analysis ◽  
Underground Reservoirs ◽  
Variable Fuzzy Sets

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Drought Based on IEAPP-IDM in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Guiyun Liu ◽  
Huimin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Projection Pursuit ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Drought Disaster

A new model for risk assessment of drought based on projection pursuit optimized by immune evolutionary algorithm and information diffusion method (IEAPP-IDM) was proposed. Due to the fact that drought risk assessment is a complex multicriteria and multilevel problem, the IEAPP-IDM model can project the multidimensional indicators of samples into one-dimension projection scores; then, the information carried by the projection scores was diffused into drought risk levels; finally, the drought disaster risk estimate was obtained. In the present study, Qujing was employed to assess the drought risk with the proposed model. The results showed that Xuanwei possessed higher risk, while Luliang and Zhanyi possessed lower risk. At the same time, the probability risk of drought in Malong and Luoping was increasing, while the probability risk of drought in in Qilin and Shizong was decreasing. The results obtained by the assessment model are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing and verify the model’s effectiveness. The study can provide scientific reference in drought risk management for Qujing and other places of China.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document