scholarly journals Some comments and criticisms for an application of logic tree approach (Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using logic tree approach-Patna District, India)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamza Gullu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Tree Approach

Challenges of Building Logic Trees for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1723-1735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Continuous Distribution ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Parameter Values

In the current practice of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), logic trees are widely used to represent and capture epistemic uncertainty in each element of the models for seismic sources and ground-motion prediction. Construction of a logic tree involves populating the branches with alternative models or parameter values, and then assigning weights, which together must represent the underlying continuous distribution. The logic tree must capture both the best estimates of what is known and the potential range of alternatives in light of what is currently not known. There are several scientific challenges involved in both populating the logic tree branches (for which new models often need to be developed) and in assigning weights to these branches. The most serious challenge facing this field now, however, may be a shortage of suitably qualified and experienced experts.

Propagation of epistemic uncertainty in magnitude–frequency relations through PSHA using predictive distributions

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110552
Author(s):  
Mario Ordaz ◽  
Danny Arroyo
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Predictive Distributions ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Different Parts

The current practice of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) considers the inclusion of epistemic uncertainties involved in different parts of the analysis via the logic-tree approach. Given the complexity of modern PSHA models, numerous branches are needed, which in some cases leads to concerns regarding performance issues. We introduce the use of a magnitude exceedance rate which, following Bayesian conventions, we call predictive exceedance rate. This rate is the original Gutenberg–Richter relation after having included the effect of the epistemic uncertainty in parameter β. The predictive exceedance rate was first proposed by Campbell but to our best knowledge is seldom used in current PSHA. We show that the predictive exceedance rate is as accurate as the typical logic-tree approach but allows for much faster computations, a very useful property given the complexity of some modern PSHA models.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

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