scholarly journals Analysis of the Propagation Effects of Remittances on the Vulnerability of External Trade of the Republic of Moldova

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-120
Author(s):  
Mircea Diavor ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Analytical Tools

In the Republic of Moldova remittances have become a much-discussed subject, the country ranking among the economies with the highest share of remittances in terms of GDP. What is more, remittances, unlike FDI, external trade and other sources of income, seem to have a significant impact on economic growth. Republic of Moldova is a small open economy vulnerable to external shocks. We will examine the effect of remittances on the balance of trade by creating an econometric model. Am attempt has also been made to capture the positive and negative spillovers that migrants’ remittances have on a country’s socio-economic development. Within the research a variety of analytical tools are employed including Granger causality tests, unit root tests, coupled with a structural vector auto regression (SVAR), impulse response function (IRF) analyses and variance decomposition. We find that net trade and remittances are closely associated and follow an almost identical path. Remittances have strong effect on the growth of negative net trade of the Republic of Moldova.

Interest Rate–Economic Growth Nexus Under Currency Board Operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Martinianus Tshimologo Tibinyane ◽  
Teresia Kaulihowa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Currency Board

This paper analyses the effect of the prime interest rate as a monetary policy instrument to stimulate economic growth in Namibia, a small open economy that is constrained by currency board operations. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was used for the period 1980–2019. The result shows that Namibia’s prime interest rate has no significant effect on economic growth. This finding remains robust and consistent when impulse response function and variance decomposition are employed. The impulse response function indicates a shock on the prime interest rate exhibits an inverse relationship. However, this effect is insignificant in both short and long-run scenarios. The variance decomposition indicates that the prime interest rate has a strongly exogenous impact, implying it has a weak influence on GDP growth. Policy implication indicates that small open economies under currency board operations need to identify different policy responses to circumvent external shocks and addresses their development needs.

scholarly journals MOLDOVAN EXTERNAL TRADE WITH EU, CIS AND OTHER COUNTRIES: ACHIEVEMENTS AND CHALLENGES

2019 ◽  
pp. 53-70
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Volume Index ◽  
The European Union ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Index Method ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Physical Volume ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Laspeyres Index

The foreign trade of a state represents a determinant in assessing its economic statute among the neighbours and in the whole world. Actuality of the studied topic is determined by the changing trade relations that the Republic of Moldova is passing through in the last years. Republic of Moldova holds the necessary criteria for becoming a competitive country in the region in terms of the manufactured and marketed goods. The aim of the study is to evaluate the foreign trade of the Republic of Moldova, by emphasizing the main traded groups of products, trade partners as well as to analyze the average price index and physical volume index of imports and exports. The paper also comes with an analysis of re-export and re-import, which represent a peculiarity for our country’s trade pattern. Research methods that have been used within the paper are the following: analogy, systemic approach, statistical and scientific analysis, Laspeyres index method. The obtained results focus on the recovery of the foreign trade between 2015 and 2017 with higher revival rates of exports, and a growing reorientation of exports towards the European Union and other countries markets.

scholarly journals Retail Space for Rent! Macroeconomic Determinants of Shopping Complex Occupancy Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 268-284
Author(s):  
Shan-Shan Goh ◽  
Tuck-Cheong Tang ◽  
Alex Hou-Hong Ng
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Occupancy Rate ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

This study proposes anad hoc equationwhich isapplied to estimatethe impactsof macroeconomic variableson occupancy rate of shopping complex. Thecandidatemacroeconomic determinantsare interest rate, inflation rate, share priceand Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whileasupply-sidevariable, total spaceis included.Using quarterly databetween 1992and 2015 froma small open economy-Malaysia, this study findsthat interest rate,and GDP both havea positive impact on shopping complex’s occupancy rate, and total space of shopping complex shows anegative sign.The non-causality tests offer that inflation rate indirectlycauses the occupancy rate of shopping complex. This study highlights somerelevant policy implications.

scholarly journals External Shocks and FX Intervention Policy in Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Carrasco ◽  
David Florián Hoyle
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Agency Problem ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Intervention Policy

This paper discusses the role of sterilized foreign exchange (FX) interventions as a monetary policy instrument for emerging market economies in response to external shocks. We develop a model for a commodity-exporting small open economy in which FX intervention is considered as a balance sheet policy induced by a financial friction in the form of an agency problem between banks and their creditors. The severity of banks agency problem depends directly on a bank-level measure of currency mismatch. Endogenous deviations from the standard UIP condition arise at equilibrium. In this context, FX interventions moderate the response of financial and macroeconomic variables to external shocks by leaning against the wind with respect to real exchange rate pressures. Our quantitative results indicate that, conditional on external shocks, the FX intervention policy successfully reduces credit, investment, and output volatility, along with substantial welfare gains when compared to a free-floating exchange rate regime. Finally, we explore distinct generalizations of the model that eliminate the presence of endogenous UIP deviations. In those cases, FX intervention operations are considerably less effective for the aggregate equilibrium.

scholarly journals Financial Markets, External Shocks and Policy Responses: The Case of Brazil 2001

2003 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-562
Author(s):  
LAURO VIEIRA DE FARIA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Negative Events ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Brazilian Government ◽  
Exchange Rate Overshooting

ABSTRACT This paper evaluates the macroeconomic response of the Brazilian government in 2001 following the emergence of sharp negative events in both the external and internal sectors with particular focus on monetary and exchange rate policies. It points out that the kind of macroeconomic reaction depicted by the standard Mundell-Fleming model is of little practical importance in a small open economy engulfed in dollar denominated debts and experiencing a confidence crisis like Brazil’s. The Brazilian economy operates as if there were some sorts of ceilings for the exchange rate and for interest rates, in a clear departure from the assumptions embodied in the “pure” model. In this kind of environment another set of actions is required to fight a dangerous exchange rate overshooting and that is proven by the events of 2001. Whilst the actions taken by the monetary authorities proved successful at that moment the paper shows that they came with sizeable real and financial costs as collateral. Therefore, the paper argues in favour of another set of macroeconomic responses which should have been preferred if we were to avoid such costs.

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