External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.

Modeling of the comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of economic entities: Management aspect

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented structural change in the current evolutionary development of the national economy of Ukraine. Situational trends that arise in the open economy of the country require reactive changes in the conditions for doing business and force public authorities to update strategies or mechanisms to support it. At the same time, a number of explicit factors, including unemployment and inflation, further exacerbate the problems in business activities. This makes it necessary to search for relevant methods that would allow interested stakeholders to carry out uninterrupted diagnostics of the state of entrepreneurship development and, on this basis, determine effective government policy tools to support this sector of the economy. Important management measures are the current assessment of the business sector, determination of its future development, and forecasting the consequences of the impact of the external environment on the activities of enterprises. At the same time, the updated methods should take into account the evolution of the development of the national economy and the specifics of the modern activities of large, medium, and small enterprises in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to develop a relevant methodology for assessing the current activities of business entities in the managerial aspect, as well as modeling the forecast for the development of this sector of the economy, taking into account the specifics of the functioning of the national economy of Ukraine. The use of the methodology proposed by the authors will make it possible to systematically assess the current state of entrepreneurship development and respond in advance to negative factors that cause its inert development.

Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy

Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capital controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial constraints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncooperative use of capital controls ineffective as crisis management policy. Effective use of capital controls for crisis management requires international cooperation. (JEL F23, F38, F41, G01, H21, H25)

Zwycięzcy i przegrani pandemii Covid-19: perspektywa globalna z uwzględnieniem gospodarki rolno-żywnościowej

The worldwide literature on the socio-economic impacts of the Covid-19 is extensive, covering individual enterprises and markets, economic sectors or branches, or the national and global economy. The current study is unique as it is a comprehensive compilation of the relevant evidence regarding economic entities and sectors of global or international significance and the societal groups from an angle of so-called "pandemic game" with some implications for the agri-food economy. Its main aim is to identify the actual and potential winners and losers of the pandemic. The winners’ notion covers actors, e.g. economic sectors or people groups those extraordinarily benefited or will benefit from a pandemic, extremely upgrading their financial or other performance. In turn, the losers include individuals or entities that incurred unusual costs or losses, worsened their results, or probably will face such pandemic consequences in the future. Some economic ideas also are considered. The article is based on the scientific, popular and grey literature as well as publicly available data to support research. The research uses deductive explanation methods. Results show that the biopharmaceutical industry, leading digital companies, shareholders in international retail chains, global financial holdings, food delivery companies, and the World’s richest people are among those who thrived exceptionally well in the new living and doing business conditions and can therefore be admitted as the current crisis’ winners. Adversely, the coronavirus victims, energy and air transport sectors, and food processing labour, all of them being harmfully affected by the pandemic, are examples of losers. Albeit the presented winners and losers represent various spheres of economic life, they are more or less related to the agriculture and food processing industry. The study confirms that the functioning and condition of the latter depend on the situation of other economic sectors, agents, and markets, and international disturbances spreading within an open economy. The paper can be of interest both to the research community, and decision-makers in different economic and social policy areas.

Social Efficiency of Entry in an Open Economy

We show that cost asymmetry between the domestic and foreign firms is not necessary for the occurrence of insufficient entry in the domestic country. This result provides a rationale for pro-competitive domestic policies even in the absence of cost asymmetries among the domestic and foreign firms. However, if significant demand comes from foreign countries, and the market structures are determined endogenously in the domestic and foreign countries, domestic-entry in an open economy might not be insufficient, implying that foreign competition might not reduce the importance of anti-competitive domestic policies.

ENTERPRISE’S FINANCIAL SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The financial system of Ukraine as a country with a small open economy is especially affected by global turbulence. A significant imbalance of global financial resources, their significant gap from the real sector of the economy leads to the formation of permanent financial crises, which gives rise to internal instability of the financial sector of the economy, lack of confidence in the banking system and a decrease in demand for final products, which entails a decrease in the level of financial security of enterprises. In such conditions, ensuring the financial security of enterprises becomes important not only for the formation of financial security of the state, but also for protecting the financial interests of their owners, and other stakeholders – managers, employees, counterparties, banks and other financial institutions.