Analyze the residential property price in Hong Kong : causes and effects

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuen-ying Law
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Price

International Real Estate Review

2004 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-138
Author(s):  
Xin J. Ge ◽  
◽  
G. Runeson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Neural Network Approach ◽  
Price Performance ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Property Price

This paper develops a forecasting model of residential property prices for Hong Kong using an artificial neural network approach. Quarterly time-series data are applied for testing and the empirical results suggest that property price index, lagged one period, rental index, and the number of agreements for sales and purchases of units are the major determinants of the residential property price performance in Hong Kong. The results also suggest that the neural network methodology has the ability to learn, generalize, and converge time series.

scholarly journals Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the Hong Kong residential property market

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Lan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Speculative Bubbles ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Housing Bubbles

Abstract This study uses the intrinsic bubbles detection method to identify housing bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. By using sample period data from 1993 to 2019, the empirical results show evidence of intrinsic bubbles. Based on the unit root and co-integration tests, I found that there are no rational speculative bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Furthermore, by using the Granger causality tests of the corresponding asymmetric VECM specification, there is no causality from lagged changes in the rental price returns to changes in the property price returns. However, there is strong evidence to show that changes in the property price index returns can Granger cause changes in the rental price index returns.

Residential property price-stock price nexus in Hong Kong: new evidence from ARDL bounds test

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koon Nam Henry Lee
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Property Markets

Purpose This study aims to investigate the cointegration and causality relationships between Hong Kong’s residential property price and stock price, using quarterly data, from the 1st quarter of 1980 to the 3rd quarter of 2015. Design/methodology/approach In contrast to other studies, the cointegration test used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration (bounds testing) approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) that based on the estimation of an unrestricted error correction model and the causality test is based on non-causality test of Granger et al. (2000). Moreover, this research employs recursive least square procedures and Chow (1960) breakpoint test to detect unknown structural break and variation of relationships between residential property and stock price over the whole sample period. Findings The results of ARDL cointegration tests running from stock to residential property markets provide strong evidence to support the hypothesis that the stock and residential properties are cointegrated. The results of Granger et al. (2000) non-causality test support the view of wealth effect that stock price has an important causal effect on residential property price in Hong Kong but not vice versa. In addition, the results of recursive ordinary least squares coefficients estimates and Chow (1960) test (breakpoint test) for structural instability confirm the variation of the relationships between stock and residential property markets over the sample period. Research limitations/implications The empirical results from cointegration and causality tests suggest that the residential asset returns are better predicted by including the lagged difference values of stock price. Originality/value This is the pioneering study to examine the cointegration and causality study of stock and residential property price in Hong Kong by employing Pesaran ARDL cointegration approach and Granger non-causality approach. Investors are able to perform an effective evaluation to assist in allocating investment funds, and the government bodies can implement supplement housing policy in response to the public needs.

scholarly journals BUYERS’ PROPERTY ASSET PURCHASE DECISIONS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE HIGH-END RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET IN HONG KONG

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wadu Mesthrige JAYANTHA ◽  
Jia Ming LAU
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Purchase Decisions ◽  
Hedonic Price ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Hedonic Price Models ◽  
Residential Units ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Housing Units

Demand for luxury housing units from the upper and upper-middle income groups in Hong Kong has been increasing over the last few years. as the market cannot satisfy demand, some prospective buyers have turned their attention to “special” housing units. this research paper attempts to investigate buyers’ preferences for two types of “special” units, namely duplex units and adjoining flats. the study investigates the price premiums paid by the buyers, and examines the effects of these special units on property price. the study employs two hedonic price models: one measuring the buyers’ preference on duplex units and the other one measuring buyers’ preference on adjoining flats. The results show that buyers are willing to pay a larger premium for special residential units: HK$588/ft 2 more for a duplex unit and HK$934/ft 2 more for an adjoining property unit, respectively. furthermore, a relatively larger premium is found for adjoining flats compared to duplex units. This implies that a property unit, purchased as an adjoining flat can add more value to the property price (in terms of $s per sq. ft.) compared with being a duplex unit.

scholarly journals Concentration Analysis of New Private Residential Units Market in Hong Kong

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sai On Cheung ◽  
Brigitta Levina ◽  
Yuhan Niu
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Dominant Position ◽  
The Public ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Metropolitan Cities ◽  
Residential Units ◽  
Property Price ◽  
The Government

The new residential property price in Hong Kong has rocketed in the last decade and has ranked within the top three metropolitan cities in the world. Housing is a necessity for most people, high residential property price has its social ramification. The rocketing price seems not solely the result of the market. As such, this raised the issue of competition in this market. This study employs Concentration Ratio and Hirfindahl-Hirschman index to evaluate the market concentration of the New Private Resident Units Market in Hong Kong. Using the best information available in the public domains and applying universal thresholds, the New Private Resident Units Market in Hong Kong is considered moderately concentrated. It is noted that the big five listed developers in Hong Kong are collectively holding a dominant position of the potential supply. Moreover, the top three have comparable market shares thus suggesting no monopoly exists. It is also found that the substantial land banks held by the five big listed developers, amount to 60% of that owned by the Government. These developers will therefore retain their dominant market power in the future. Further study is recommended to examine whether the big developers have abused their market power.

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