Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market

We argue that extrapolative expectations drive boom–bust cycles in the postwar art market. Price run-ups coincide with increases in demand fundamentals but are followed by predictable busts. Predictable changes account for about half of the variance of five-year price changes. High prices coincide with many attributes of speculative bubbles: trading volume, the share of short-term trades, the share of postwar art, and volatility are all higher during booms. In addition, short-term transactions underperform long-term transactions. Survey evidence further confirms the link between beliefs, prices, and volume dynamics as in models in which extrapolative beliefs fuel speculative bubbles. This paper was accepted by Tyler Shumway, finance.

Pricked by the Virus for good? Real Estate Bubbles and the Grand European Shutdown

Research Question: The objective of this particular piece of research was to evaluate the condition of the real estate market in the period preceding the pandemic outbreak. Motivation: Our goal was to determine whether real estate has been overpriced, i.e., whether and when speculative bubbles began to form and whether there were indications of their bursting. This paper brings together the need for discussing theories that can potentially explain the real estate market bubbles and boom-bust cycles (Gleaser &Nathanson, 2014) and the new approach which proved promising to detect the exuberance of economic and financial activities (Phillips, Shi &Yu, 2015). Potential collapse of real estate prices would have devastating effects and would likely cause a collapse of the financial system. Idea: The core idea of this paper was to evaluate whether speculative bubbles could be detected in the real estate market over the period immediately before the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus pandemic, and whether the pandemic or the financial crisis arising from it led to bursting of bubbles in this market and consequently brought their economies into even deeper crises. Data: Quarterly price movements were analyzed in the real estate market in six countries: Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia in the period Q1 1980 - Q4 2019 for Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Q1 2002 - Q4 2019 for Serbia and Croatia and Q1 2007 - Q4 2019 for Slovenia. Tools: Empirical analysis has been performed by utilizing generalized sub-augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test of unit roots for the detection and data stamping of bubbles in the real estate market in time series at hand. Findings: In conclusion, grand European shutdown and COVID pandemic apparently did not prick multiplicity of previously formed real estate bubbles, at least not for the time being. Moreover, in several developing countries with stunted financial markets, the virus may have somewhat paradoxically solidified real estate prices and even sustained a build-up of rational real estate bubbles. Contribution: This paper expands previous research on real estate bubbles and provides new insights into the initial consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Part II Trade Finance Technology, 12 Will Blockchain Transform Trade Finance?

The administration of cross-border trade remains dominated by complex, old-fashioned, hybrid human-computer-paper systems long after disruptive innovations have transformed commerce in many other domains. Interest in blockchain is driven by the desire to cut through the ‘Gordian knot’ of complex, fragmented, anachronistic legacy trade-finance systems now in use. Blockchain advocates believe it is superior to the legacy database technologies currently in use in all important transaction-processing systems and designed to work within hierarchically networked computer systems controlled by large organisations. These advocates appear unaware, however, of the wide range of practical functions performed by different elements of existing trade finance systems, and are thus proposing alternatives that cannot perform all the functions of the systems they propose to replace. This kind of mismatch between real-world business requirements and the theoretical advantages of blockchain alternatives goes a long way to explain the failure of any blockchain projects to achieve widespread success in the market. Incremental efforts to transform trade finance in light of actual stakeholder requirements are both less vulnerable to speculative bubbles and more likely to meet the actual requirements of the many, diverse participants in global trade-finance systems today.

The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative bubbles, and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but they match better the empirical evidence on the predictability of asset returns. Even without short-selling constraints, speculation induces procyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences macroeconomic outcomes such as aggregate consumption, investment, and output. Speculation in the boom years reduces asset prices, aggregate demand, and output in the subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies that restrict speculation in the boom can improve macroeconomic stability and social welfare. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Economics, Volume 13 is August 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Financial Bubbles for Economic Development: Implications Regarding ICOs

Most people consider financial bubbles as the result of speculations and manipulations, and that less of them will make a market economy more efficient. While speculative bubbles no doubt increase the risks and uncertainties of investors, there are many episodes in human civilization where financial bubbles are commensurate with real positive contribution to real development of an economy. This paper analyzes this issue from theoretical perspectives and in the context of recent new financial instruments created from the technology of blockchain.