scholarly journals Peer Review #1 of "The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever: impacts of climate on transmission (v0.1)"

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Morin
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction

scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Very High ◽  
Very Low Temperature

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.

scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Very High ◽  
Very Low Temperature

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2004-2014, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.7ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1ºC, the number of incidences increases 30%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.

scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Very High ◽  
Very Low Temperature

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.

scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction ◽  
Transmission Method ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Rain Season

Background: Dengue fever is mosquito-borne viral disease and regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak dengue epidemic period is around June to August during rain season. It is believed that climate plays an important role for dengue transmission. Method: Mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were from Chiang Mai 2004-2013, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection. Results: The population of mosquito was increasing exponentially from the start of rain season in early May and reaches the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential of dengue transmission occurs at temperature equal to 28.7 ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers was 0.62-3.05, above unity from February to November and reaches the peak in July. Discussion and Conclusion: The results have shown that dengue infection is depending on seasonal variation. The rainfall provides places for mosquito to laid eggs and develop to adult stage. Temperature plays an important role to mosquito life cycle and also mosquito behaviors. The seasonal reproduction number was corresponding to dengue incidences number and could measure the dengue transmission potential. The sensitive analysis suggested that avoiding or reducing contact with mosquito is the best method to reduce the dengue transmission.

scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang
Keyword(s):  
Low Temperature ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Seasonal Reproduction ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Very High ◽  
Very Low Temperature

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.

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