scholarly journals The seasonal reproduction number of dengue fever impacts of climate on transmission

Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.

Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2004-2014, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.7ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1ºC, the number of incidences increases 30%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: The dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that the climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method: A mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2008-2015, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results: The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1.2ºC, the number of incidences increases 43.7%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sittisede Polwiang

Background: Dengue fever is mosquito-borne viral disease and regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak dengue epidemic period is around June to August during rain season. It is believed that climate plays an important role for dengue transmission. Method: Mathematical model for vector-host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were from Chiang Mai 2004-2013, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection. Results: The population of mosquito was increasing exponentially from the start of rain season in early May and reaches the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential of dengue transmission occurs at temperature equal to 28.7 ºC. The seasonal reproduction numbers was 0.62-3.05, above unity from February to November and reaches the peak in July. Discussion and Conclusion: The results have shown that dengue infection is depending on seasonal variation. The rainfall provides places for mosquito to laid eggs and develop to adult stage. Temperature plays an important role to mosquito life cycle and also mosquito behaviors. The seasonal reproduction number was corresponding to dengue incidences number and could measure the dengue transmission potential. The sensitive analysis suggested that avoiding or reducing contact with mosquito is the best method to reduce the dengue transmission.


2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-22
Author(s):  
Md. Habibur Raman ◽  
Abu Yousuf Md. Shahidul Alam ◽  
AKM Mijanur Rahman ◽  
Md. Sarwar Khan ◽  
Nahid Reaz Shapla ◽  
...  

Background: Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world1. The rapidly expanding global footprint of dengue is a public health challenge. The endemicity of dengue is also increasing in Bangladesh. This study highlights our current understanding of dengue, including its clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, management and outcome. Objectives: This study was designed to document the presenting features and outcome of Dengue infection in Border Guard personnel. Materials and Methods: It was a prospective observational study which was carried out among outpatient and indoor cases from February 2011 to November 2012 in Border Guard Hospital, Dhaka which is a 300 bedded hospital. Total 200 cases were enrolled. A detailed history, clinical examinations and relevant investigations were done. Data were collected in a predesigned structured questionnaire and analyzed with the help of SPSS-16.0 and Chisquare (X2) Test. Results: A total of 200 adult seropositive Dengue cases of various grade were studied. Among these 152(76%) were male and 48 (24%) were female. Male to female ratio was 3.17:1.The age range of the patients was 18 to 60 years and the mean age 39±12.56 years. Among 200 patients, 112(66%) were Dengue Fever (DF) and 88(44%) were Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) including 3(1.5%) cases of DHF Grade lII but none (0%) had Grade-IV DHF. All the patients presented with fever 200(100%), general weakness 200(100%) followed by various skin rash 196(98%), headache 192(96%), myalgia/arthralgia 191(95.5%), retroorbital pain 84(42%). Bleeding manifestation showed in 94(47%) cases of which petechiae was most frequent 86(43%), Haematocrit was normal only in 13(6.5%) patients and 82(41%) had a rise of >20%; Leucopenia was found in 187(93.5%) patients.Only 2(1%) patients had normal platelet count and 03(1.5%) patients had platelet count of less than 10X109 /L. Raised serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) was observed in 184(92%) of cases. All (200%) the patients recovered completely from the disease; however, one patient subsequently developed Guillein Barre Syndrome. Conclusion: High persistent fever, profound general weakness, myalgia, headache and itchy skin rash were the usual presenting features. Most of the patients recovered well with efficient symptomatic and supportive treatment. Very few cases required blood/platelet transfusion. There was no case fatality in this study group DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jom.v14i1.14531 J MEDICINE 2013; 14 : 18-22


2006 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravulapalli AnandaRao ◽  
Sathyamangalam Swaminathan ◽  
Sirimali Fernando ◽  
Asha M. Jana ◽  
Navin Khanna

ABSTRACT Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease prevalent mainly in tropical countries. As the clinical manifestations of dengue are not very unique, laboratory diagnosis is crucial in identifying cases of dengue infection. Detection of dengue infection based on the identification of antidengue antibodies has emerged as a practical and reliable means of diagnosing dengue fever. We recently developed a customized recombinant dengue multiepitope protein (r-DME-G) that can specifically detect the immunoglobulin G (IgG) class of antidengue antibodies in patient sera. Using this strategy, we have now created another dengue multiepitope protein, r-DME-M, with specificity for the IgM class of antidengue antibodies. A synthetic gene encoding the r-DME-M protein was expressed as a maltose-binding protein fusion in Escherichia coli. The recombinant protein was purified in a single affinity chromatographic step to obtain yields of ∼15 mg purified protein/liter of culture. The purified protein was used to develop an in-house IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and tested using a panel of 172 patient sera characterized using the commercially available Dengue Duo rapid strip test from PanBio, Australia. The IgM ELISA results showed that the r-DME-M protein not only recognized all IgM+ samples identified by the PanBio test but also identified samples missed by the latter test. We also successfully adapted the r-DME-M protein to a rapid strip test format. This approach of creating customized antigens coupled to overexpression in E. coli and simple purification offers a promising alternative option to dengue diagnosis with the potential to circumvent the drawbacks of the whole virus antigen-based commercial kits.


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