A simple interpretation of undirected edges in essential graphs is wrong

Artificial intelligence for causal discovery frequently uses Markov equivalence classes of directed acyclic graphs, graphically represented as essential graphs, as a way of representing uncertainty in causal directionality. There has been confusion regarding how to interpret undirected edges in essential graphs, however. In particular, experts and non-experts both have difficulty quantifying the likelihood of uncertain causal arrows being pointed in one direction or another. A simple interpretation of undirected edges treats them as having equal odds of being oriented in either direction, but I show in this paper that any agent interpreting undirected edges in this simple way can be Dutch booked. In other words, I can construct a set of bets that appears rational for the users of the simple interpretation to accept, but for which in all possible outcomes they lose money. I put forward another interpretation, prove this interpretation leads to a bet-taking strategy that is sufficient to avoid all Dutch books of this kind, and conjecture that this strategy is also necessary for avoiding such Dutch books. Finally, I demonstrate that undirected edges that are more likely to be oriented in one direction than the other are common in graphs with 4 nodes and 3 edges.

Consistency Guarantees for Greedy Permutation-Based Causal Inference Algorithms

Directed acyclic graphical models are widely used to represent complex causal systems. Since the basic task of learning such a model from data is NP-hard, a standard approach is greedy search over the space of directed acyclic graphs or Markov equivalence classes of directed acyclic graphs. As the space of directed acyclic graphs on p nodes and the associated space of Markov equivalence classes are both much larger than the space of permutations, it is desirable to consider permutation-based greedy searches. Here, we provide the first consistency guarantees, both uniform and high-dimensional, of a greedy permutation-based search. This search corresponds to a simplex-like algorithm operating over the edge-graph of a subpolytope of the permutohedron, called a directed acyclic graph associahedron. Every vertex in this polytope is associated with a directed acyclic graph, and hence with a collection of permutations that are consistent with the directed acyclic graph ordering. A walk is performed on the edges of the polytope maximizing the sparsity of the associated directed acyclic graphs. We show via simulated and real data that this permutation search is competitive with current approaches.

Integrating Overlapping Datasets Using Bivariate Causal Discovery

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based on the assumption that all variables have been jointly measured in a single dataset. In many cases this assumption fails. Previous approaches to overcoming this shortcoming devised algorithms that returned all joint causal structures consistent with the conditional independence information contained in each individual dataset. But, as conditional independence tests only determine causal structure up to Markov equivalence, the number of consistent joint structures returned by these approaches can be quite large. The last decade has seen the development of elegant algorithms for discovering causal relations beyond conditional independence, which can distinguish among Markov equivalent structures. In this work we adapt and extend these so-called bivariate causal discovery algorithms to the problem of learning consistent causal structures from multiple datasets with overlapping variables belonging to the same generating process, providing a sound and complete algorithm that outperforms previous approaches on synthetic and real data.

Characterizing the Minimal Essential Graphs of Maximal Ancestral Graphs

Learning ancestor graph is a typical NP-hard problem. We consider the problem to represent a Markov equivalence class of ancestral graphs with a compact representation. Firstly, the minimal essential graph is defined to represent the equivalent class of maximal ancestral graphs with the minimum number of invariant arrowheads. Then, an algorithm is proposed to learn the minimal essential graph of ancestral graphs based on the detection of minimal collider paths. It is the first algorithm to use necessary and sufficient conditions for Markov equivalence as a base to seek essential graphs. Finally, a set of orientation rules is presented to orient edge marks of a minimal essential graph. Theory analysis shows our algorithm is sound, and complete in the sense of recognizing all minimal collider paths in a given ancestral graph. And the experiment results show we can discover all invariant marks by these orientation rules.

On Causal Identification under Markov Equivalence

In this work, we investigate the problem of computing an experimental distribution from a combination of the observational distribution and a partial qualitative description of the causal structure of the domain under investigation. This description is given by a partial ancestral graph (PAG) that represents a Markov equivalence class of causal diagrams, i.e., diagrams that entail the same conditional independence model over observed variables, and is learnable from the observational data. Accordingly, we develop a complete algorithm to compute the causal effect of an arbitrary set of intervention variables on an arbitrary outcome set.