Tree Inference: Response Time and Other Measures in a Binary Multinomial Processing Tree, Representation and Uniqueness of Parameters

A Multinomial Processing Tree (MPT) is a directed tree with a probability associated with each arc and partitioned terminal vertices. We consider an additional parameter for each arc, a measure such as time. Each vertex represents a process. An arc descending from a vertex represents selection of a process outcome. A source vertex represents processing beginning with stimulus presentation and a terminal vertex represents a response. An experimental factor selectively influences a vertex if changing the factor level changes parameter values on arcs descending from that vertex and no others. Earlier work shows that if each of two factors selectively influences a different vertex in an arbitrary MPT it is equivalent to one of two simple MPTs. Which applies depends on whether the two selectively influenced vertices are ordered by the factors or not. A special case, the Standard Binary Tree for Ordered Processes, arises if the vertices are ordered and the factor selectively influencing the first vertex changes parameter values on only two arcs. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions, testable by bootstrapping, for this case. Parameter values are not unique. We give admissible transformations for them. We calculate degrees of freedom needed for goodness of fit tests.

Vertex Turán problems for the oriented hypercube

In this short note we consider the oriented vertex Turán problem in the hypercube: for a fixed oriented graph F → \vec F , determine the maximum cardinality e x v ( F → , Q → n ) e{x_v}\left( {\vec F,{{\vec Q}_n}} \right) of a subset U of the vertices of the oriented hypercube Q → n {\vec Q_n} such that the induced subgraph Q → n [ U ] {\vec Q_n}\left[ U \right] does not contain any copy of F → \vec F . We obtain the exact value of e x v ( P k , → Q n → ) e{x_v}\left( {\overrightarrow {{P_k},} \,\overrightarrow {{Q_n}} } \right) for the directed path P k → \overrightarrow {{P_k}} , the exact value of e x v ( V 2 → , Q n → ) e{x_v}\left( {\overrightarrow {{V_2}} ,\,\overrightarrow {{Q_n}} } \right) for the directed cherry V 2 → \overrightarrow {{V_2}} and the asymptotic value of e x v ( T → , Q n → ) e{x_v}\left( {\overrightarrow T ,\overrightarrow {{Q_n}} } \right) for any directed tree T → \vec T .

The use of B-splines to represent the topography of river networks

This work presents a new extension to B-Splines that enables them to model functions on directed tree graphs such as non-braided river networks. The main challenge of the application of B-splines to graphs is their definition in the neighbourhood of nodes with more than two incident edges. Achieving that the B-splines are continuous at these points is non-trivial. For both, simplification reasons and in view of our application, we limit the graphs to directed tree graphs. To fulfil the requirement of continuity, the knots defining the B-Splines need to be located symmetrically along the edges with the same direction. With such defined B-Splines, we approximate the topography of the Mekong River system from scattered height data along the river. To this end, we first test and validate successfully the method with synthetic water level data, with and without added annual signal. The quality of the resulting heights is assessed besides others by means of root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute differences (MAD). The RMSE values are 0.26 m and 1.05 m without and with added annual variation respectively and the MAD values are even lower with 0.11 m and 0.60 m. For the second test, we use real water level observations measured by satellite altimetry. Again, we successfully estimate the river topography, but also discuss the short comings and problems with unevenly distributed data. The unevenly distributed data leads to some very large outliers close to the upstream ends of the rivers tributaries and in regions with rapidly changing topography such as the Mekong Falls. Without the outlier removal the standard deviation of the resulting heights can be as large as 50 m with a mean value of 15.73 m. After the outlier removal the mean standard deviation drops to 8.34 m.

Falsification of Hybrid Systems Using Adaptive Probabilistic Search

We present and analyse an algorithm that quickly finds falsifying inputs for hybrid systems. Our method is based on a probabilistically directed tree search, whose distribution adapts to consider an increasingly fine-grained discretization of the input space. In experiments with standard benchmarks, our algorithm shows comparable or better performance to existing techniques, yet it does not build an explicit model of a system. Instead, at each decision point within a single trial, it makes an uninformed probabilistic choice between simple strategies to extend the input signal by means of exploration or exploitation. Key to our approach is the way input signal space is decomposed into levels, such that coarse segments are more probable than fine segments. We perform experiments to demonstrate how and why our approach works, finding that a fully randomized exploration strategy performs as well as our original algorithm that exploits robustness. We propose this strategy as a new baseline for falsification and conclude that more discriminative benchmarks are required.

Stochastic bursting in networks of excitable units with delayed coupling

We investigate the phenomenon of stochastic bursting in a noisy excitable unit with multiple weak delay feedbacks, by virtue of a directed tree lattice model. We find statistical properties of the appearing sequence of spikes and expressions for the power spectral density. This simple model is extended to a network of three units with delayed coupling of a star type. We find the power spectral density of each unit and the cross-spectral density between any two units. The basic assumptions behind the analytical approach are the separation of timescales, allowing for a description of the spike train as a point process, and weakness of coupling, allowing for a representation of the action of overlapped spikes via the sum of the one-spike excitation probabilities.

Consistent Allocation of Emission Responsibility in Fossil Fuel Supply Chains

Since 2016, Canada’s federal government has pledged to factor in upstream emissions during the environmental impact assessment of fossil fuel energy projects. The upstream emissions attributable to a proposed project could be compared against a rejection threshold—a maximum permissible level of emissions—or the firm could be mandated to offset the attributed emissions. We adopt a cooperative game-theoretic model and propose the nucleolus mechanism to apportion upstream emission responsibilities in a fossil fuel supply chain, represented by a directed tree, wherein the nodes correspond to various entities in the supply chain such as extractors, distributors, refineries, and end consumers. The nucleolus allocation avoids the distortionary effects of double counting and exhibits a certain consistency property that is especially important in a regulatory context wherein fossil fuel supply chains span multiple legal jurisdictions. We develop a polynomial-time algorithm to compute the nucleolus and further prove that it arises as the unique subgame perfect equilibrium allocation of a noncooperative game induced by two easily stated and verifiable policies, thereby providing an implementation framework. We then demonstrate the strong Nash stability of the nucleolus mechanism subject to the two policies, study its sensitivity to parameter changes, and characterize it on the basis of fairness considerations. Furthermore, under the common assumption that the emissions allocated to a firm and the resulting financial penalties do not impact the revenues from the firm’s core operations, we also provide lower-bound guarantees on the welfare gains it delivers to firms in the fossil fuel supply chain and on the incentives it offers such firms to adopt emission abatement technologies. Finally, we contextualize our discussion with a case study on a proposed expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline in Western Canada. This paper was accepted by Chung Piaw Teo, optimization.

Generalized Multipliers for Left-Invertible Operators and Applications

Generalized multipliers for a left-invertible operator T, whose formal Laurent series $$U_x(z)=\sum _{n=1}^\infty (P_ET^{n}x)\frac{1}{z^n}+\sum _{n=0}^\infty (P_E{T^{\prime *n}}x)z^n$$ U x ( z ) = ∑ n = 1 ∞ ( P E T n x ) 1 z n + ∑ n = 0 ∞ ( P E T ′ ∗ n x ) z n , $$x\in \mathcal {H}$$ x ∈ H actually represent analytic functions on an annulus or a disc are investigated. We show that they are coefficients of analytic functions and characterize the commutant of some left-invertible operators, which satisfies certain conditions in its terms. In addition, we prove that the set of multiplication operators associated with a weighted shift on a rootless directed tree lies in the closure of polynomials in z and $$\frac{1}{z}$$ 1 z of the weighted shift in the topologies of strong and weak operator convergence.