demographic simulation
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2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 20180577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichi Yamaura ◽  
Ayu Narita ◽  
Yoshinobu Kusumoto ◽  
Atsushi J. Nagano ◽  
Ayumi Tezuka ◽  
...  

Grassland ecosystems worldwide have been extensively converted to other land uses and are globally imperiled. Because many grasslands have been maintained by human activities, understanding their origin and history is fundamentally important to better contemporary management. However, existing methods to reconstruct past vegetation can produce contrasting views on grassland history. Here, we inferred demographic histories of 40 populations of four grassland forb species throughout Japan using high-resolution genome sequences and model-flexible demographic simulation based on the site frequency spectrum. Although two species showed a slight decline in population size between 100 000–10 000 years ago, our results suggest that population sizes of studied species have been maintained within the range of 0.5–2.0 times the most recent estimates for at least 100 000 years across Japan. Our results suggest that greater than 90% declines in Japanese grasslands and subsequent losses of grassland species in the last 100 years are geologically and biologically important and will have substantial consequences for Japanese biota and culture. People have had critical roles in maintaining disturbance-dependent grassland ecosystems and biota in this warm and wet forested country. In these contexts, disturbances associated with forest harvesting and traditional extensive farming have the potential to maintain grassland ecosystems and can provide important opportunities to reconcile resource production and conservation of grassland biodiversity.


2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (51) ◽  
pp. 13033-13038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippa J. Holder ◽  
Ainsley Jones ◽  
Charles R. Tyler ◽  
James E. Cresswell

Mass mortalities of honey bees occurred in France in the 1990s coincident with the introduction of two agricultural insecticides, imidacloprid and fipronil. Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid, was widely blamed, but the differential potency of imidacloprid and fipronil has been unclear because of uncertainty over their capacity to bioaccumulate during sustained exposure to trace dietary residues and, thereby, cause time-reinforced toxicity (TRT). We experimentally quantified the toxicity of fipronil and imidacloprid to honey bees and incorporated the observed mortality rates into a demographic simulation of a honey bee colony in an environmentally realistic scenario. Additionally, we evaluated two bioassays from new international guidance for agrochemical regulation, which aim to detect TRT. Finally, we used analytical chemistry (GC-MS) to test for bioaccumulation of fipronil. We found in demographic simulations that only fipronil produced mass mortality in honey bees. In the bioassays, only fipronil caused TRT. GC-MS analysis revealed that virtually all of the fipronil ingested by a honey bee in a single meal was present 6 d later, which suggests that bioaccumulation is the basis of TRT in sustained dietary exposures. We therefore postulate that fipronil, not imidacloprid, caused the mass mortalities of honey bees in France during the 1990s because it is lethal to honey bees in even trace doses due to its capacity to bioaccumulate and generate TRT. Our results provide evidence that recently proposed laboratory bioassays can discriminate harmful bioaccumulative substances and, thereby, address evident shortcomings in a regulatory system that had formerly approved fipronil for agricultural use.


Author(s):  
Jeongsik Kim ◽  
Namhun Kim ◽  
Euihyun Paik ◽  
Chun-Hee Lee ◽  
Jang Won Bae

Author(s):  
Cristina Montanola-Sales ◽  
Josep Casanovas-Garcia ◽  
Bhakti S.S. Onggo ◽  
Zengxiang Li

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