The Effect of Wind Stress on Seasonal Sea-Level Change on the Northwestern European Shelf

Projections of relative sea-level change (RSLC) are commonly reported at an annual mean basis. The seasonality of RSLC is often not considered, even though it may modulate the impacts of annual mean RSLC. Here, we study seasonal differences in 21st-century ocean dynamic sea-level change (DSLC, 2081-2100 minus 1995-2014) on the Northwestern European Shelf (NWES) and their drivers, using an ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models complemented with experiments performed with a regional ocean model. For the high-end emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, we find substantial seasonal differences in ensemble mean DSLC, especially in the southeastern North Sea. For example, at Esbjerg (Denmark), winter mean DSLC is on average 8.4 cm higher than summer mean DSLC. Along all coasts on the NWES, DSLC is higher in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. For the low-end emissions scenario SSP1-2.6, these seasonal differences are smaller. Our experiments indicate that the changes in winter and summer sea-level anomalies are mainly driven by regional changes in wind-stress anomalies, which are generally southwesterly and east-northeasterly over the NWES, respectively. In spring and autumn, regional wind-stress changes play a smaller role. We also show that CMIP6 models not resolving currents through the English Channel cannot accurately simulate the effect of seasonal wind-stress changes on he NWES. Our results imply that using projections of annual mean RSLC may underestimate the projected changes in extreme coastal sea levels in spring and winter. Additionally, changes in the seasonal sea-level cycle may affect groundwater dynamics and the inundation characteristics of intertidal ecosystems.

Response of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean Warming During Late Pleistocene Interglacials

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past intervals of oceanic and atmospheric warming is still not well constrained but critical for understanding both past and future sea-level change. Furthermore, the ice sheet in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which is characterized by a reverse-sloping bed, appears to have undergone thinning and ice discharge events during recent decades. By combining new glaciological evidence on ice sheet elevation from the TALDICE ice core with offshore sedimentological records and ice sheet modelling experiments, we reconstruct the ice dynamics in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin over the past 350,000 years. Our results indicate that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin experienced an extensive retreat 330,000 years ago and a more limited retreat 125,000 years ago. These changes coincided with warmer Southern Ocean temperatures and elevated global mean sea level during those interglacial periods, confirming the sensitivity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to ocean warming and its potential role in sea-level change.

Ground Subsidence Response Conditional On Large-Scale Geothermal Exploitation In A Karst Reservoir Area of North China

Carbonate karst geothermal resources are widely distributed and have large reserves in North China. Nowadays, the scale of exploitation and utilization of the carbonate karst geothermal resources is gradually increasing. In this work, a geothermal exploitation area where the karst geothermal reservoirs are exploited on a large scale, is selected as the study area, and methods including experiment and numerical simulation are used to study the exploitation-induced ground subsidence problems based on the long-term water level monitoring data of the geothermal reservoir. Through analyses of ground subsidence caused by water level change of the geothermal reservoir, the following conclusions were obtained. The water level drawdown of different types of geothermal reservoirs had different effects on ground subsidence. The maximum ground subsidence of the study area caused by the water level decline of the Jx w carbonate geothermal reservoir was only 0.29 mm/a from 1983 to 2019, which is generally insignificant. In contrast, the same water level change of the N m sandstone geothermal reservoir was predicted to cause 8.9 mm/a ground subsidence. To slow down or even prevent the ground subsidence, balanced production and reinjection are required. From the result of this work, the decline of the water level of the Jx w carbonate geothermal reservoir caused by current large-scale geothermal exploitation will not cause serious ground subsidence. However, attention should be paid to the N m sandstone type geothermal reservoirs as their structures are much more sensitive to the water pressure change.