Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from ∼1∘ (eddy-parametrized) to ∼0.25∘ (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches 1/12∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary.

Response of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean Warming During Late Pleistocene Interglacials

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past intervals of oceanic and atmospheric warming is still not well constrained but critical for understanding both past and future sea-level change. Furthermore, the ice sheet in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which is characterized by a reverse-sloping bed, appears to have undergone thinning and ice discharge events during recent decades. By combining new glaciological evidence on ice sheet elevation from the TALDICE ice core with offshore sedimentological records and ice sheet modelling experiments, we reconstruct the ice dynamics in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin over the past 350,000 years. Our results indicate that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin experienced an extensive retreat 330,000 years ago and a more limited retreat 125,000 years ago. These changes coincided with warmer Southern Ocean temperatures and elevated global mean sea level during those interglacial periods, confirming the sensitivity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to ocean warming and its potential role in sea-level change.

Evidence for late glacial oceanic carbon redistribution and discharge from the Pacific Southern Ocean

Southern Ocean deep-water circulation plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. On geological time-scales, upwelling along the Chilean continental margin likely contributed to the deglacial atmospheric carbon dioxide rise, but little quantitative evidence exists of carbon storage. Here, we use a new X-ray Micro-Computer-Tomography method to assess foraminiferal test dissolution as proxy for paleo-carbonate ion concentrations ([CO32−]). Our subantarctic Southeast Pacific sediment core depth transect shows significant deep-water [CO32−] variations during the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation (10 – 22 ka BP). We provide evidence for an increase in [CO32−] during the early deglacial period (15-19 ka BP), followed by a ca. 40 µmol kg−1 reduction in Lower Circumpolar Deepwater (CDW). This decreased Pacific to Atlantic export of low-carbon CDW contributed to significantly lowered carbon storage within the Southern Ocean, highlighting the importance of a dynamic Pacific–Southern Ocean deep-water reconfiguration for shaping late-glacial oceanic carbon storage, and subsequent deglacial oceanic-atmospheric CO2 transfer.

Storms drive outgassing of CO2 in the subpolar Southern Ocean

The subpolar Southern Ocean is a critical region where CO2 outgassing influences the global mean air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2). However, the processes controlling the outgassing remain elusive. We show, using a multi-glider dataset combining FCO2 and ocean turbulence, that the air-sea gradient of CO2 (∆pCO2) is modulated by synoptic storm-driven ocean variability (20 µatm, 1–10 days) through two processes. Ekman transport explains 60% of the variability, and entrainment drives strong episodic CO2 outgassing events of 2–4 mol m−2 yr−1. Extrapolation across the subpolar Southern Ocean using a process model shows how ocean fronts spatially modulate synoptic variability in ∆pCO2 (6 µatm2 average) and how spatial variations in stratification influence synoptic entrainment of deeper carbon into the mixed layer (3.5 mol m−2 yr−1 average). These results not only constrain aliased-driven uncertainties in FCO2 but also the effects of synoptic variability on slower seasonal or longer ocean physics-carbon dynamics.

Climate Change Impacts on Polar Marine Ecosystems: Toward Robust Approaches for Managing Risks and Uncertainties

The Polar Regions chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on polar marine ecosystems and associated consequences for humans. It also includes identification of confidence for major findings based on agreement across studies and weight of evidence. Sources of uncertainty, from the extent of available datasets, to resolution of projection models, to the complexity and understanding of underlying social-ecological linkages and dynamics, can influence confidence. Here we, marine ecosystem scientists all having experience as lead authors of IPCC reports, examine the evolution of confidence in observed and projected climate-linked changes in polar ecosystems since SROCC. Further synthesis of literature on polar marine ecosystems has been undertaken, especially within IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group II; for the Southern Ocean also the Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO). These publications incorporate new scientific findings that address some of the knowledge gaps identified in SROCC. While knowledge gaps have been narrowed, we still find that polar region assessments reflect pronounced geographical skewness in knowledge regarding the responses of marine life to changing climate and associated literature. There is also an imbalance in scientific focus; especially research in Antarctica is dominated by physical oceanography and cryosphere science with highly fragmented approaches and only short-term funding to ecology. There are clear indications that the scientific community has made substantial progress in its ability to project ecosystem responses to future climate change through the development of coupled biophysical models of the region facilitated by increased computer power allowing for improved resolution in space and time. Lastly, we point forward—providing recommendations for future advances for IPCC assessments.

Intense ocean freshening from melting glacier around the Antarctica during early twenty-first century

With the accelerating mass loss of Antarctic ice sheets, the freshening of the Southern Ocean coastal oceans (SOc, seas around Antarctica) is gradually intensifying, which will reduce the formation of bottom water and weaken the meridional overturning circulation, thus having a significant negative impact on the ocean’s role in regulating global climate. Due to the extreme environment of the Southern Ocean and the limitations of observational techniques, our understanding of the glacier-derived freshening of SOc is still vague. We developed a method that first provided us with an expansive understanding of glacier-derived freshening progress over the SOc. Applying this method to the observational data in the SOc from 1926 to 2016, revealed that the rate of glacier-derived freshwater input reached a maximum of 268 ± 134 Gt year−1 during the early twenty-first century. Our results indicate that during the same period, glacier melting accounted for 63%, 28%, and 92% of the total freshening occurred in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific sectors of the SOc, respectively. This suggests that the ice shelf basal melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula plays a dominant role in the freshening of the surrounding seas.