Dispersion Trading Based on the Explanatory Power of S&P 500 Stock Returns

This paper develops a dispersion trading strategy based on a statistical index subsetting procedure and applies it to the S&P 500 constituents from January 2000 to December 2017. In particular, our selection process determines appropriate subset weights by exploiting a principal component analysis to specify the individual index explanatory power of each stock. In the following out-of-sample trading period, we trade the most suitable stocks using a hedged and unhedged approach. Within the large-scale back-testing study, the trading frameworks achieve statistically and economically significant returns of 14.52 and 26.51 percent p.a. after transaction costs, as well as a Sharpe ratio of 0.40 and 0.34, respectively. Furthermore, the trading performance is robust across varying market conditions. By benchmarking our strategies against a naive subsetting scheme and a buy-and-hold approach, we find that our statistical trading systems possess superior risk-return characteristics. Finally, a deep dive analysis shows synchronous developments between the chosen number of principal components and the S&P 500 index.

Dispersion trading: an empirical analysis on the S&P 100 options

This study provides an empirical analysis back-testing the implementation of a dispersion trading strategy to verify its profitability. Dispersion trading is an arbitrage-like technique based on the exploitation of the overpricing of index options, especially index puts, relative to individual stock options. The reasons behind this phenomenon have been traced in literature to the correlation risk premium hypothesis (i.e., the hedge of correlations drifts during market crises) and the market inefficiency hypothesis. This study is aimed at evaluating whether dispersion trading can be implemented with success, with a focus on the Standard & Poor’s 100 options. The risk adjusted return of the strategy used in this empirical analysis has beaten a buy-and-hold alternative on the S&P 100 index, providing a significant over-performance and a low correlation with the stock market. The findings, therefore, provide an evidence of inefficiency in the US options market and the presence of a form of “free lunch” available to traders focusing on options mispricing.