Institutionalizing Personalism: The Russian Presidency after Constitutional Changes

The 2020 constitutional changes considerably increase presidential powers while sending mixed signals about presidential transition. The main driver of the amendments were term limits. The “zeroing” of Putin’s presidential terms enhances certainty for himself by fostering uncertainty for others. But there is more to the amendments: Numerous changes are not new, they simply align the constitutional text with subconstitutional powers the presidency had been accumulating. The embedding of term limit circumvention in a comprehensive constitutional overhaul is a risk-hedging strategy to avert resistance by weakening the signal about Putin’s intentions. Constitutional changes are therefore an instrument of elite coordination. The amendments also increase presidential flexibility. This expedited regime personalization is detrimental to governance and will make repression more prevalent. But it also creates more risks for Putin. Regardless of how presidential succession will play out, Putin’s legacy will be a highly personalized authoritarian regime with a constitutionally unconstrained presidency.

Burundi’s new strongman offers some prospect of change

Subject Burundi's presidential succession and political outlook. Significance The ruling National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) on January 26 held a party congress to nominate its candidate for the May 2020 presidential elections. While there had been much speculation that incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza might try to hold on to power, the party instead elected General Evariste Ndayishimiye, the CNDD-FDD secretary-general. Impacts Instability within the CNDD-FDD could offer opportunities for renewed armed opposition activity, with potential for regional spillover. Ongoing investigations by the International Criminal Court into abuses during his tenure will cloud Nkurunziza’s retirement. Regional countries will welcome the transition as the best hope for a reduced risk of fresh instability.

The Practice of Presidential Succession in Indonesia

This study analyzed Article 8 of the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia on the presidential succession in Indonesia. The 1945 Constitution clearly regulates presidential and vice-presidential election period for once in five years. However, the practice of presidential succession can be unpredictable. This article aims to elaborate the management of presidential succession in Indonesia. The study in this article employed normative research method by applying a statute approach. The finding of the study proves that based on Article 8 of the 1945 Constitution; there are four circumstances of presidential substitutions. They are decease, resignation, dismissal, and inability to carry out duties. However, in the actual practices that have been happened several times, the presidential successions in Indonesia were not always caused by the four conditions. The examples are the successions of Soekarno, Soeharto, and Abdurrahman Wahid. The three Presidents were dismissed without transparent legal reasons. Their dismissals were based merely on political decisions, not legal reasons. In addition, political transitions, internal conflicts, and economic crises contributed to the presidential successions in Indonesia.

Kenyan constitutional reform faces complex path

Subject Prospects for constitutional reform in Kenya. Significance In the wake of his post-election reconciliation with President Uhuru Kenyatta, opposition leader Raila Odinga has continued to push for constitutional reforms. This has sparked a wider debate that has led to various reform proposals. However, so far, there appears to be little consensus on the way forward. Impacts The high public wage bill will limit popular support for a new constitution that creates more political positions. The ‘Big Four’ policy agenda will continue to suffer amid politicking around presidential succession. Even with 5-6% growth trends, the rising cost of living will remain the primary problem facing most Kenyans.