Jeffreys-prior penalty, finiteness and shrinkage in binomial-response generalized linear models

Summary Penalization of the likelihood by Jeffreys’ invariant prior, or a positive power thereof, is shown to produce finite-valued maximum penalized likelihood estimates in a broad class of binomial generalized linear models. The class of models includes logistic regression, where the Jeffreys-prior penalty is known additionally to reduce the asymptotic bias of the maximum likelihood estimator, and models with other commonly used link functions, such as probit and log-log. Shrinkage towards equiprobability across observations, relative to the maximum likelihood estimator, is established theoretically and studied through illustrative examples. Some implications of finiteness and shrinkage for inference are discussed, particularly when inference is based on Wald-type procedures. A widely applicable procedure is developed for computation of maximum penalized likelihood estimates, by using repeated maximum likelihood fits with iteratively adjusted binomial responses and totals. These theoretical results and methods underpin the increasingly widespread use of reduced-bias and similarly penalized binomial regression models in many applied fields.

Local influence for elliptical partially varying-coefficient model

In this article, we extend varying-coefficient models with normal errors to elliptical errors in order to permit distributions with heavier and lighter tails than the normal ones. This class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions, such as Student-t, Pearson VII, power exponential and logistic, among others. Estimation is performed by maximum penalized likelihood method and by using smoothing splines. In order to study the sensitivity of the penalized estimates under some usual perturbation schemes in the model or data, the local influence curvatures are derived and some diagnostic graphics are proposed. A real dataset previously analysed by using varying-coefficient models with normal errors is reanalysed under varying-coefficient models with heavy-tailed errors.