Vote Expectations Versus Vote Intentions: Rival Forecasting Strategies

Are ordinary citizens better at predicting election results than conventional voter intention polls? The authors address this question by comparing eight forecasting models for British general elections: one based on voters' expectations of who will win and seven based on who voters themselves intend to vote for (including ‘uniform national swing model’ and ‘cube rule’ models). The data come from ComRes and Gallup polls as well as the Essex Continuous Monitoring Surveys, 1950–2017, yielding 449 months with both expectation and intention polls. The large sample size permits comparisons of the models' prediction accuracy not just in the months prior to the election, but in the years leading up to it. Vote expectation models outperform vote intention models in predicting both the winning party and parties' seat shares.

Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections

This article develops a forecasting model of seat shares in the House of Commons applied to general election outcomes. The model utilises past information about party seat shares, together with data from the polls gathered prior to the election, to forecast the number of seats won by the parties. Once it has been estimated the model will be used to make a forecast of the outcome of a possible general election in May 2005. The article starts by focusing on research into translating votes into seats, or the cube rule and its modifications. It then goes on to develop the forecasting model, which is based on electoral and poll data from 1945 to 2001.

Large Aeroplanes

I want this evening to present some reasons for believing- that we can build successful aeroplanes of enormous size, and, what is more important, that they will not be merely monuments to a desire for the gigantic.In the past, bold computers have defined upper limits to the size of aeroplanes. Their prophecies have varied, and most of them have been belied by practical achievement. Their arguments were usually based on what has been called the “ Cube Law ” or the “ Square-Cube Rule.” This rule, though it has apparently proved misleading, is indeed correct when properly applied, and it forms a convenient point from which to begin an enquiry into the feasibility of the giant aeroplane.