Estimating Crime in Place: Moving Beyond Residence Location

We assess if asking victims about the places where crimes happen leads to estimates of “crime in place” with better measurement properties. We analyze data from the Barcelona Victimization Survey (2015–2020) aggregated in 73 neighborhoods using longitudinal quasi-simplex models and criterion validity to estimate the quality of four types of survey-based measures of crime. The distribution of survey-based offense location estimates, as opposed to victim residence estimates, is highly similar to police-recorded crime statistics, and there is little trade off in terms of the reliability and validity of offense location and victim residence measures. Estimates of crimes reported to the police show a better validity, but their reliability is lower and capture fewer crimes.

Estimating crime in place: Moving beyond residence location

We assess if asking victims about the places where crimes happen leads to estimates of ‘crime in place’ with better measurement properties. We analyse data from the Barcelona Victimization Survey (2015 to 2020) aggregated in 73 neighbourhoods using longitudinal quasi-simplex models and criterion validity to estimate the quality of four types of survey-based measures of crime. The distribution of survey-based offence location estimates, as opposed to victim residence estimates, is highly similar to police-recorded crime statistics, and there is little trade off in terms of the reliability and validity of offence location and victim residence measures. Estimates of crimes reported to the police show a better validity, but their reliability is lower and capture fewer crimes.

Assessing and Relaxing Assumptions in Quasi-Simplex Models

The quasi-simplex model (QSM) makes use of at least three repeated measures of the same variable to estimate reliability. The model has rather strict assumptions and ignoring them may bias estimates of reliability. While some previous studies have outlined how several of its assumptions can be relaxed, they have not been exhaustive and systematic. Thus, it is unclear what all the assumptions are and how to test and free them in practice. This chapter will addresses this situation by presenting the main assumptions of the quasi-simplex model and the ways in which users can relax these with relative ease when more than three waves are available. Additionally, by using data from the British Household Panel Survey we show how this is practically done and highlight the potential biases found when ignoring the violations of the assumptions. We conclude that relaxing the assumptions should be implemented routinely when more than three waves of data are available.

Estimation for finite mixture of simplex models: applications to biomedical data

Simplex distribution has been proved useful for modelling double-bounded variables in data directly. Yet, it is not sufficient for multimodal distributions. This article addresses the problem of estimating a density when data is restricted to the (0,1) interval and contains several modes. Particularly, we propose a simplex mixture model approach to model this kind of data. In order to estimate the parameters of the model, an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed. The parameter estimation performance is evaluated through simulation studies. Models are explored using two real datasets: i) gene expressions data of patients’ survival times and the relation to adenocarcinoma and ii) magnetic resonant images (MRI) with a view in segmentation. In the latter case, given that data contains zeros, the main model is modified to consider the zero-inflated setting.

A general theory of generic modelling and paradigm shifts: part 3 – the extension

Purpose – Anticipating behaviour and responding to the needs of complexity and problematic issues requires modelling to facilitate analysis and diagnosis. Using arguments of anticipation as an imperative for inquiry, the purpose of this paper is to introduce generic modelling for living systems theory, and assigns the number of generic constructs to orders of simplex modelling. An nth simplex order rests in an nth order simplex cybernetic space. A general modelling theory of higher orders of simplexity is given, where each higher order responds to every generic construct involved, the properties of which determining the rules of the complex system being that is represented. Higher orders of simplexity also explain greater degrees of complexity relatively simply, and give rise to the development of new paradigms that are better able to explain perceived complex phenomena. Design/methodology/approach – This is Part 3 of three linked papers. Using principles that arise from Schwarz’s living systems set within a framework provided by cultural agency theory, and with a rationale provided by Rosen’s and Dubois’ concepts of anticipation, the papers develop a general modelling theory of simplex orders. They show that with the development of new higher orders, paradigm shifts can occur that become responsible for new ways of seeing and resolving stubborn problematic issues. Part 1 established the fundamentals for a theory of modelling associated with cybernetic orders. Using this, in this Part 2 the authors established the principles of cybernetic orders using simplex modelling. This included a general theory of generic modelling. In this Part 3 the authors extend this, developing a fourth order simplex model, and exploring the potential for higher orders using recursive techniques through cultural agency theory. The authors also explore various forms of emergence. Findings – Cultural agency theory can be used to generate higher simplex through principles of recursion, and hence to create a potential for the generation of families of new paradigms. The idea of conceptual emergence is also tied to the rise of new paradigms. Research limitations/implications – The use of higher order simplex models to represent complex situations provides the ability to condense explanation concerning the development of particular system behaviours, and hence simplify the way in which the authors analyse, diagnose and anticipate behaviour in complex situations. Illustration is also given showing how the theory can explain the emergence of new paradigms. Practical implications – Cultural agency can be used to structure problem issues that may otherwise be problematic, within both a top-down and bottom-up approach. It may also be used to assist in establishing behavioural anticipation given an appropriate modelling approach. It may also be used to improve and compress explanation of complex situations. Originality/value – A new theory of simplex orders arises from the new concept of generic modelling, illustrating cybernetic order. This permits the possibility of improved analysis and diagnosis of problematic situations belonging to complex situations through the use of higher order simplex models, and facilitates improvement in behavioural anticipation.

A general theory of generic modelling and paradigm shifts: part 1 – the fundamentals

Purpose – Anticipating behaviour and responding to the needs of complexity and the problematic issues that they can generate requires modelling to facilitate analysis and diagnosis. Using arguments of anticipation as an imperative for inquiry, the purpose of this paper is to introduce generic modelling for living systems theory, and assigns the number of generic constructs to orders of simplex modelling. An nth simplex order rests in an nth order simplex cybernetic space. A general modelling theory of higher orders of simplexity is given, where each higher order responds to every generic construct involved, the properties of which determining the rules of the complex system being that is represented. Higher orders of simplexity also explain greater degrees of complexity relatively simply, and give rise to the development of new paradigms that are better able to explain perceived complex phenomena. Design/methodology/approach – This is part 1 of three linked papers. Using principles that arise from Schwarz’s living systems set within a framework provided by cultural agency theory, and with a rationale provided by Rosen’s and Dubois’ concepts of anticipation, the papers develops a general modelling theory of simplex orders. It shows that with the development of new higher orders, paradigm shifts can occur that become responsible for new ways of seeing and resolving stubborn problematic issues. The paper is composed of two parts. Part 1 establishes the fundamentals for a theory of modelling associated with cybernetic orders. Using this, part 2 establishes the principles of cybernetic orders using simplex modelling. This will include a general theory of generic modelling. Part 3 extends this, developing a fourth order simplex model, and exploring the potential for higher orders using recursive techniques through cultural agency theory. Findings – Cultural agency theory can be used to generate higher simplex through principles of recursion, and hence to create a potential for the generation of families of new paradigms. The idea of conceptual emergence is also tied to the rise of new paradigms. Research limitations/implications – The use of higher order simplex models to represent complex situations provides the ability to condense explanation concerning the development of particular system behaviours, and hence simplify the way in which the authors analyse, diagnose and anticipate behaviour in complex situations. Illustration is also given showing how the theory can explain the emergence of new paradigms. Practical implications – Cultural agency can be used to structure problem issues that may otherwise be problematic, within both a top-down and bottom up approach. It may also be used to assist in establishing behavioural anticipation given an appropriate modelling approach. It may also be used to improve and compress explanation of complex situations. Originality/value – A new theory of simplex orders arises from the new concept of generic modelling, illustrating cybernetic order. This permits the possibility of improved analysis and diagnosis of problematic situations belonging to complex situations through the use of higher order simplex models, and facilitates improvement in behavioural anticipation.

A general theory of generic modelling and paradigm shifts: part 2 – cybernetic orders

Purpose – Anticipating behaviour and responding to the needs of complexity and problematic issues requires modelling to facilitate analysis and diagnosis. Using arguments of anticipation as an imperative for inquiry, the purpose of this paper is to introduce generic modelling for living systems theory, and assign the number of generic constructs to orders of simplex modelling. An nth simplex order rests in an nth order simplex cybernetic space. A general modelling theory of higher orders of simplexity is given, where each higher order responds to every generic construct involved, the properties of which determining the rules of the complex system being that is represented. Higher orders of simplexity also explain greater degrees of complexity relatively simply, and give rise to the development of new paradigms that are better able to explain perceived complex phenomena. Design/methodology/approach – This is part 2 of three linked papers. Using principles that arise from Schwarz’s living systems set within a framework provided by cultural agency theory, and with a rationale provided by Rosen’s and Dubois’ concepts of anticipation, the papers develop a general modelling theory of simplex orders. They show that with the development of new higher orders, paradigm shifts can occur that become responsible for new ways of seeing and resolving stubborn problematic issues. Part 1 established the fundamentals for a theory of modelling associated with cybernetic orders. Using this, in this part 2 the authors establish the principles of cybernetic orders using simplex modelling. This will include a general theory of generic modelling. In part 3 the authors shall extend this, developing a fourth-order simplex model, and exploring the potential for higher orders using recursive techniques through cultural agency theory. Findings – Cultural agency theory can be used to generate higher simplex through principles of recursion, and hence to create a potential for the generation of families of new paradigms. The idea of conceptual emergence is also tied to the rise of new paradigms. Research limitations/implications – The use of higher order simplex models to represent complex situations provides the ability to condense explanation concerning the development of particular system behaviours, and hence simplify the way in which the authors analyse, diagnose and anticipate behaviour in complex situations. Illustration is also given showing how the theory can explain the emergence of new paradigms. Practical implications – Cultural agency can be used to structure problem issues that may otherwise be problematic, within both a top-down and bottom up approach. It may also be used to assist in establishing behavioural anticipation given an appropriate modelling approach. It may also be used to improve and compress explanation of complex situations. Originality/value – A new theory of simplex orders arises from the new concept of generic modelling, illustrating cybernetic order. This permits the possibility of improved analysis and diagnosis of problematic situations belonging to complex situations through the use of higher order simplex models, and facilitates improvement in behavioural anticipation.