Study on the Impacts of Emergency on Economic, Environmental and Social Areas Using Mixed Methods Research

Mixed methods research methodology appears to be a suitable approach for researching complex phenomena such as emergencies. Researchers study the impacts on different areas such as economy, society, or environment, mostly in separate studies. To better understand the reality of emergencies, it is necessary to study the problem in the broadest possible context. So, examining those impacts in one single study is a challenge. The objective of this article is to process a comprehensive assessment of an emergency that has the potential to establish the basis of a robust tool for public managers to support their decision-making, using mixed methods research methodology. The crisis is an explosion of an ammunition storage site in the Czech Republic - the former satellite country of the Soviet Union. The sub-methods used in mixed methods research are analysis of data, interviews, questionnaire surveys, and field research. The main findings include that in the economic area, growth of public budget expenditures was found; in the environmental area, primary and inducted impacts have been proved. Survey also confirms that the emergency reduced the personal sense of security and trust in public institutions in the affected community. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2022-06-01-07 Full Text: PDF

The COVID-19 Infection Diffusion in the US and Japan: A Graph-Theoretical Approach

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first discovered in China; within several months, it spread worldwide and became a pandemic. Although the virus has spread throughout the globe, its effects have differed. The pandemic diffusion network dynamics (PDND) approach was proposed to better understand the spreading behavior of COVID-19 in the US and Japan. We used daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 5 January 2020 to 31 July 2021, for all states (prefectures) of the US and Japan. By applying the pandemic diffusion network dynamics (PDND) approach to COVID-19 time series data, we developed diffusion graphs for the US and Japan. In these graphs, nodes represent states and prefectures (regions), and edges represent connections between regions based on the synchrony of COVID-19 time series data. To compare the pandemic spreading dynamics in the US and Japan, we used graph theory metrics, which targeted the characterization of COVID-19 bedhavior that could not be explained through linear methods. These metrics included path length, global and local efficiency, clustering coefficient, assortativity, modularity, network density, and degree centrality. Application of the proposed approach resulted in the discovery of mostly minor differences between analyzed countries. In light of these findings, we focused on analyzing the reasons and defining research hypotheses that, upon addressing, could shed more light on the complex phenomena of COVID-19 virus spread and the proposed PDND methodology.

Hybrid systems using residual modeling for sea surface temperature forecasting

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an environmental indicator closely related to climate, weather, and atmospheric events worldwide. Its forecasting is essential for supporting the decision of governments and environmental organizations. Literature has shown that single machine learning (ML) models are generally more accurate than traditional statistical models for SST time series modeling. However, the parameters tuning of these ML models is a challenging task, mainly when complex phenomena, such as SST forecasting, are addressed. Issues related to misspecification, overfitting, or underfitting of the ML models can lead to underperforming forecasts. This work proposes using hybrid systems (HS) that combine (ML) models using residual forecasting as an alternative to enhance the performance of SST forecasting. In this context, two types of combinations are evaluated using two ML models: support vector regression (SVR) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The experimental evaluation was performed on three datasets from different regions of the Atlantic Ocean using three well-known measures: mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The best HS based on SVR improved the MSE value for each analyzed series by $$82.26\%$$ 82.26 % , $$98.93\%$$ 98.93 % , and $$65.03\%$$ 65.03 % compared to its respective single model. The HS employing the LSTM improved $$92.15\%$$ 92.15 % , $$98.69\%$$ 98.69 % , and $$32.41\%$$ 32.41 % concerning the single LSTM model. Compared to literature approaches, at least one version of HS attained higher accuracy than statistical and ML models in all study cases. In particular, the nonlinear combination of the ML models obtained the best performance among the proposed HS versions.

Wave Propagations in Nonlinear Low-Pass Electrical Transmission Lines through Optical Fiber Medium

The present article discovers the new soliton wave solutions and their propagation in nonlinear low-pass electrical transmission lines (NLETLs). Based on an innovative Exp-function method, multitype soliton solutions of nonlinear fractional evolution equations of NLETLs are established. The equation is reformulated to a fractional-order derivative by using the Jumarie operator. Some new results are also presented graphically to understand the real physical importance of the studied model equation. The physical interpretation of waves is represented in the form of three-dimensional and contour graphs to visualize the underlying dynamic behavior of these solutions for particular values of the parameters. Moreover, the attained outcomes are generally new for the considered model equation, and the results show that the used method is efficient, direct, and concise which can be used in more complex phenomena.

An open systems model of successful school leadership

PurposeThrough description and consideration of 12 models developed as part of the International Successful School Principalship Project (ISSPP), a new model of successful school leadership is developed.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is necessarily descriptive in nature. For the first time, 12 ISSPP models are described together, and these descriptions are then used inductively to create a new successful school leadership model.FindingsThe open systems approach adopted depicts schools as a continuous cycle of input-transformation-output with feedback loops that inform each stage of the cycle. The inputs are the variables that lead to transformation. The transformation stage is the actions or processes that individuals, groups and organisations engage in because of the inputs, and these lead to a range of student and school outcomes. Feedback loops connect the stages, and the whole model is open to the influence of five contextual forces: economic, political, socio-cultural, technological and system, institutional and educational.Originality/valueModels are an important way to make sense of complex phenomena. A new model of successful school leadership, with an open systems approach, provides a different frame to consider the findings of the ISSPP and potentially allows the ISSPP research to inform practice and connect with other school leadership views in new ways.

Hybrid and Virtual Educational Simulation Games (vESGs) for the Remote Learning Era

Virtual educational simulation games (vESGs) promote unique combinations of learning interactions and affordances to create environments with which students can engage to effectively learn about complex phenomena and processes in multiple domains. Using the GlobalEd vESG as an example case throughout the chapter, the authors discuss (1) the key functions and experiences that vESGs provide to learners; (2) the types of valuable student interactions that can be expected when playing a vESG and strategies for maximizing these interactions for learning; (3) strategies for teacher implementation and adaptation of vESGs, as well as professional development programs to support their use of vESGs in classrooms; and (4) observed benefits of using vESGs as evidenced from over a decade of implementation of the GlobalEd vESG in authentic classroom settings.

Contact Electrification through Interfacial Charge Transfer: A Mechanistic Viewpoint on Solid-liquid interface

Contact Electrification (Triboelectrification) has been a long-standing phenomenon for 2600 years. The scientific understanding of contact electrification (triboelectrification) remains un-unified as the term itself implies complex phenomena involving mechanical contact/sliding...

Dynamics of optical pulses in fiber optics

In this paper, we pay attention to the nonlinear dynamical behavior of ultra-short pulses in optical fiber. The new Hamiltonian amplitude equation is used as a governing model to analyze the pulses. We secure the ultra-short pulses in the forms of bright, dark, singular, combo and complex soliton solutions by the utilization of three of sound computational integration techniques that are protracted (or extended) Fan-sub equation method (PFSEM), the generalized exponential rational function method (GERFM), extended Sinh-Gordon equation expansion method (ShGEEM). Moreover, Jacobi’s elliptic, trigonometric, and hyperbolic functions solutions are also discussed as well as the constraint conditions of the achieved solutions are also presented. In addition, we discuss the different wave structures by the assistance of logarithmic transformation. The findings demonstrate that the examined equation theoretically contains a large number of soliton solution structures. By selecting appropriate criteria, the actual portrayal of certain obtained results is sorted out graphically in 3D and 2D profiles. The results suggest that the procedures used are concise, direct, and efficient, and that they can be applied to more complex phenomena. The resulting solutions are novel, intriguing, and potentially useful in understanding energy transit and diffusion processes in mathematical models of several disciplines of interest, including nonlinear optics. Our new results have been compared to these in the literature.

A Complex Systems Account of the Covid-19 Pandemic: Illustrations from India

The Covid-19 pandemic in India and the rest of the world was followed by tremendous health and social consequences. Worldwide the pandemic created challenges that were unpredictable and elusive to our existing ways of thinking. The paper posits that a complex systems thinking is needed to make sense of the society-wide ramifications of a ‘wicked’ problem like the pandemic and devise appropriate resolutions. A complex systems thinking conceptualizes our society as emergent from irreducible interdependencies across individuals, communities and systems and the pandemic as a complex systems problem that has consequences both immediate and future. The paper uses the complexity lens to explore the unanticipated repercussions of the pandemic control measures that further accentuated pandemic induced socio-economic disruptions, and secondly, the domain of Covid-19 treatment in India, as examples, to demonstrate that while devising a response to complex phenomena like the pandemic more needs to be accounted for than what meets the eye. It thus calls for a more caring science that understands and respects our shared existence and wellbeing and makes use of diverse, democratic and decentralised processes to forge shared pathways for navigating our complex world.

A Cosmopolitan Jurisprudence

H. Patrick Glenn (1940–2014), Professor of Law and former Director of the Institute of Comparative Law at McGill University, was a key figure in the global discourse on comparative law. This collection is intended to honor Professor Glenn's intellectual legacy by engaging critically with his ideas, especially focusing on his visions of a 'cosmopolitan state' and of law conceptualized as 'tradition'. The book explores the intellectual history of comparative law as a discipline, its attempts to push the objects of its study beyond the positive law of the nation-state, and both its potential and the challenges it must confront in the face of the complex phenomena of globalization and the internationalization of law. An international group of leading scholars in comparative law, legal philosophy, legal sociology, and legal history takes stock of the field of comparative law and where it is headed.