Tanzanian export ban unlikely to drive investors away

Subject Tanzania metal ore export ban. Significance On March 2, the Tanzanian government announced it had banned export of metal ores by international mining companies, in what firms see as part of a continuing attack on the extractive industries sector. The government has attempted to negotiate increased tax bills, or settlement of unpaid ones, and has repeatedly threatened to take a greater slice of revenues. Impacts Donor criticisms of the ban will be muted but further restrictive measures would cause concern. Mining sector employment could be damaged in the short term as investment shifts to developing smelting capacity over expanding production. Magufuli’s popularity is likely to persist and he will be projected as a champion against exploitative foreign interests.

Aluminium wars will unfold between China and the West

Subject Competition moves downstream and into the arena of trade laws. Significance Aluminium is an industrial metal in wide use from cans to aeroplanes and electronics. As with most commodities, demand for the metal has been driven by China's growth and by its increased overall usage. China's aluminium production has grown rapidly since 1990, and competition with rival producers is now intensifying downstream in semi-finished products. Impacts Closures of bauxite mines and aluminium smelting capacity will occur mostly outside of China. Aluminium companies will shift business models to compete on downstream products. Chinese aluminium manufacturers will be scrutinised for potential 'dumping' practices.