Honduras’s Castro’s prospects will depend on Congress

Significance The results of the latter two are yet to be revealed, but with more than 50% of the presidential vote counted, Xiomara Castro of Liberty and Refoundation (LIBRE) holds a 20-percentage-point lead. Barring any last-minute upsets, Castro will take office in January as the country’s first-ever female president, and its first leftist president since 2009. Impacts Attention will quickly shift to the new legislature and the formation of a governing alliance for the incoming president. A Castro presidency would probably engage with Washington early, especially on anti-corruption efforts. Diplomatic relations with China could involve a surge of investment, particularly in infrastructure projects. Possible investigation of outgoing President Hernandez in connection with drug-trafficking allegations could taint the PN by association.

New Algerian leader will struggle to restore stability

Significance Indeed, following a controversial vote on December 12, incoming President Abdelmadjid Tebboune faces a momentous challenge if he is to succeed in leading the country towards greater political and economic stability. Notably, he will need to break the current political impasse through a credible engagement with the protest movement. Interlinked with this is the need to demonstrate his independence from the military. Impacts If Tebboune makes credible concessions, opposition will fragment between those favouring dialogue and those preferring continued protest. Without Gaid Salah’s clear leadership, the military may be more divided and less able to set policy direction in the coming months. Tebboune’s initial government is likely to be dominated by unknown figures and may be weak, but will later try to co-opt opposition actors. Tebboune’s programme will probably support a modest degree of economic liberalisation.