Why Is America So Polarized?

This chapter examines one of the potential implications of the shift in campaign-targeting strategies: its effects on partisan polarization. Over the last few decades, elected officials have grown further apart based on the voting records of members of Congress. On some measures, the mass public has also grown further apart. Each party’s shift toward disproportionately communicating with their base has likely exacerbated and accelerated both mass and elite polarization. Using a common measure of elite polarization, the analyses reveal a marked shift following the 2000 election that, at a minimum, coincides with the changes in overall campaign strategies documented in the book.

Priming the Party

This chapter advances a direct examination of presidential campaign strategies by analyzing the contents of presidential advertisements broadcasted on television in recent cycles. The analyses are suggestive and largely explorative, but they suggest overall that presidential campaigns have increasingly featured partisan cues in their appeals on television, presumably to activate latent predispositions among partisans in their camps and to trigger the salience of social identity processes rooted in partisan identification. I interpret this evidence to support the notion of a base maximizing strategy as opposed to base expansion efforts.

Introduction

This chapter introduces the main argument developed in the book—namely, that presidential campaigns have been lavishing greater attention on base voters in recent elections compared with swing or persuadable voters, and that this shift in campaign strategy has had potent political consequences. The introduction also summarizes the plan for the book and describes the chapters that follow.

Switching Gears

This chapter demonstrates the change in campaign-targeting strategies both over time and following the adoption of microtargeting techniques by political operatives leading up to and following the 2000 election. The analyses show that strong partisans and committed ideologues have been targeted by campaigns at higher rates, while independents have received less and less attention from campaigns in recent cycles. I concede these analyses represent only an indirect attempt to observe shifts in presidential campaign strategy, but consistent, direct, and reliable measures of campaign targeting over time are unavailable. Nevertheless, inferences about campaign behavior and strategic decision-making can be gleaned from Americans’ reports of campaign activity.

The Elusive Persuadable Voter

This chapter investigates the timing of presidential vote choice and the rates of party support and party defection in recent presidential elections. The percentage of voters who are making their decision to support one presidential candidate instead of the other after the general election campaign is shrinking. Campaigns struggle to persuade voters once they’ve reached a decision to vote for a particular candidate. This is an added motivation for campaigns to focus on mobilization instead of persuasion. Not only are voters making up their minds earlier than ever, but they are also more loyal than ever. Partisans, particularly strong partisans, rarely defect from supporting their party’s nominee, which was not the case in presidential election just a few decades ago.

Big Data and Other Big Changes

The chapter describes developments in campaign technology, focusing on advances in microtargeting capabilities and explaining why the presidential election in 2000 represents a watershed moment in this process.

Conclusion

The concluding chapter summarizes the key findings reported in the book and provides some additional reflections on the implications for politics and democracy in America.

Turning Out or Tuning Out?

This chapter begins to consider the implications of the shift toward base maximization in recent presidential campaign cycles by examining patterns in voter turnout among partisan subgroups in the electorate. The analyses show that persuadable voters are voting at lower rates while strong partisans are voting at higher rates in recent presidential elections. These patterns have fundamentally changed the nature of the electorate, which has been comprised increasingly of strong partisans in recent years, relative to independent, swing, or persuadable voters.