Why Is America So Polarized?

This chapter examines one of the potential implications of the shift in campaign-targeting strategies: its effects on partisan polarization. Over the last few decades, elected officials have grown further apart based on the voting records of members of Congress. On some measures, the mass public has also grown further apart. Each party’s shift toward disproportionately communicating with their base has likely exacerbated and accelerated both mass and elite polarization. Using a common measure of elite polarization, the analyses reveal a marked shift following the 2000 election that, at a minimum, coincides with the changes in overall campaign strategies documented in the book.

Switching Gears

This chapter demonstrates the change in campaign-targeting strategies both over time and following the adoption of microtargeting techniques by political operatives leading up to and following the 2000 election. The analyses show that strong partisans and committed ideologues have been targeted by campaigns at higher rates, while independents have received less and less attention from campaigns in recent cycles. I concede these analyses represent only an indirect attempt to observe shifts in presidential campaign strategy, but consistent, direct, and reliable measures of campaign targeting over time are unavailable. Nevertheless, inferences about campaign behavior and strategic decision-making can be gleaned from Americans’ reports of campaign activity.

Seeing Is Believing: An Experiment on Absentee Ballots and Voter Confidence

Since the 2000 election, researchers have taken an interest in the role of voter confidence and its importance as an assessment of public trust in electoral outcomes. Many factors may influence voter confidence including the way in which a voter casts their ballot. Previous research has found that absentee voters consistently report the lowest levels of confidence that their votes were counted correctly. This study uses an experiment to examine how voting method impacts voter confidence. Voters were randomly assigned to either an in-person or absentee voting condition. Participants assigned to the absentee condition expressed lower levels of confidence that their votes would be counted correctly than those assigned to the in-person voting condition. Voters who had to ask for assistance during the experiment also reported lower levels of confidence. This could have implications for voter confidence levels nationally as vote-by-mail continues to grow in popularity.

Electronic Voting Systems

In 2001, Wand and colleagues published a paper titled “The Butterfly Did It” (see Wand, et al. 2001, cited under Voting System Neutrality) in which they argue that Palm Beach County’s butterfly ballot caused enough errors to decide the 2000 election for George W. Bush. The butterfly ballot also helped launch significant new research initiatives into voting systems and prompted new federal legislation through the Help America Vote Act of 2002, which served to modernize American voting systems. Along with Internet voting, these developments account for most contemporary research on electronic voting systems. Research on electronic voting systems is now at a crossroads. Much of the research following the 2000 election evaluated technology including lever and punch-card machines that are now largely obsolete (Stewart 2011, cited under History and Development of Voting Systems). Current and future research is moving in the direction of issues of security, Internet voting, ballot design, usability, efficiency, and cost of electronic voting systems. All voting systems in the United States today are electronic to a degree. Ansolabehere and Persily 2010 (cited under Empirical and Legal Evaluation of Voting Systems) identifies three discrete parts to voting systems: voter authentication, vote preparation, and vote management. Electronic voting technology can facilitate any of these steps. The term “electronic voting” is polysemous. Electronic voting (or e-voting) variously describes direct-recording electronic voting, electronic vote tabulation, or Internet voting among others. This document defines electronic voting as any voting system that uses electronic technology at any step in the voting process. Fully electronic voting systems use DREs (direct-recording electronic machines), in which ballots are electronically generated, prepared, and counted. Hybrid types of electronic voting are optically scanned ballots (precinct or centrally counted) or ballot mark devices (BMDs), which the voter completes manually and submits but is electronically counted. Electronic voting systems can also include Internet voting in which voters receive, prepare, and submit ballots online. The 2000 presidential election precipitated the most sweeping changes to voting systems, and we continue to see officials adopt new voting systems and Internet voting pilot programs, such as those in Estonia, Canada, Brazil, and Switzerland. Voting systems, particularly Internet voting, are a source of controversy in the United States and abroad. Debates over security and ease of use involve complex technologies and core democratic principles about the rights and responsibilities of citizens. Elections are also, at least in a narrow sense and especially in the United States, zero-sum. Only one person can hold an office, and any change in voting systems that helps one candidate or party necessarily harms the electoral prospects of others. At best, this leads officials to closely scrutinize new voting systems. At worst, it can lead to irreconcilable and unprincipled polarization over questions of voting technology. E-voting involves issues of technology, democratic participation, and electoral politics. This creates a rich environment for research on voting systems.

Voting Behavior in Mexico

Chapter 6 discusses trends in mass electoral behavior in Mexico from the 1980s to 2012. Mexico’s authoritarian regime held elections for municipal, state, and federal races from 1930 onward without interruption and the PRI’s candidates won almost every one of these elections through the end of the 1980s. From 1988, with the upswing in competition, voters opted for other options and their choices were respected. Once the PRI lost the 2000 election, however, its support did not collapse because the PRI’s brand name continued to offer Mexican voters the assurance of a certain type of pragmatic governing style. This proved a strong impetus toward party unity. In the decade after the transition, the PRI continued to be Mexico’s only “national” party that is able to win elections in all regions of the country: it is usually in first or second place in voters’ preferences from Baja California to Yucatán.

Disharmony: 1991–2002

This chapter covers the period from the election of General Scard as General Secretary through to his replacement by Derek Kay and the internal machinations which ended with John Smith being elected General Secretary in 2002. Reorganisation of the UK’s orchestras is reported. Internal restructuring of the Union is noted and problems around the 2000 election for General Secretary are reported.