Volatility of Financial Metrics: Important Data for Contingent Consideration Valuations

This article presents the first detailed statistical analysis of the volatilities of various commonly encountered financial metrics used in contingent consideration (and earn-out) agreements. The valuation of contingent consideration using an option-based methodology and non-equity volatilities is becoming more common in business valuation. We provide clear evidence that the volatility of five financial metrics—revenue; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA); EBIT, net income, and total assets—is strongly, negatively related to firm size and profitability. However, contrary to common belief, the volatility of these metrics is not related to a firm's financial leverage. We also calculated the volatilities using four different methodologies that are employed in practice. Although no theory guides the selection of methodologies, based upon our work, we have found that the year-over-year growth rate, using a quarterly frequency, provides the most reasonable results.

Why Pre-IPO Studies Are Unsound in Concept and in Practice

This article explains why pre–initial public offering (IPO) studies are not a valid basis for determining marketability discounts. They are unsound in concept because the pre-IPO transactions and the subsequent IPO are priced at materially different dates and because the IPO price is not knowable at the earlier date. They are unsound in practice for several reasons, such as selectivity—the data include only companies that subsequently become publicly traded—and the fact that any pre-IPO discount includes not only a marketability discount but also a second discount for the risk that the IPO may not take place.

When Averaging Multiples, the Arithmetic Mean Is Inferior to the Harmonic Mean

This article posits that using the arithmetic mean to average multiples is mathematically inferior. A multiple is an inverted ratio with price in the numerator. The harmonic mean is a statistically sound method for averaging inverted ratios. It should be used as a measure of central tendency for multiples, along with the median. Empirically, the harmonic mean and the median of a set of multiples are usually similar. Because the harmonic mean can be overly affected by abnormally low multiples, the valuator must use judgment to exclude outliers.