scholarly journals Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (4) ◽  
pp. 2561-2578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Omi ◽  
Yosihiko Ogata ◽  
Yoshito Hirata ◽  
Kazuyuki Aihara
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting

scholarly journals Entropy-based member selection in a GCM ensemble forecasting

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Tapiador ◽  
C. Gallardo
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Member Selection

The Norris Lake Earthquake Swarm of June Through September, 1993; Preliminary Findings

1994 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Long ◽  
A. Kocaoglu ◽  
R. Hawman ◽  
P.J.W. Gore
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Swarm ◽  
Building Stone ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Average Depth ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Event Recorder ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Recreational Lake

Abstract During the summer of 1993, the residents in the Norris Lake community, Lithonia, Georgia, were bothered by an incessant swarm of earthquakes. The largest, a magnitude 2.7 on September 23, showed a normal aftershock decay and occurred after the main swarm. Over 10,000 earthquakes have been detected, of which perhaps 500 were felt. The earthquakes began June 8, 1993, with a 5-day swarm. The residents, accustomed to quarry explosions, suspected the quarries of irregular activities. To locate the source of the events, a visual recorder and a digital event recorder were placed in the epicentral area. Ten to 20 events were detected per day for the next three weeks. The swarm then escalated to a peak of over 100 per day by August 15, 1993. Activity following the peak died down to about 10 events per day. The magnitude 2.7 event of September 23 was followed by a normal aftershock sequence. The larger events were felt with intensity V within 2 km of their epicenter, and noticed (intensity II) to a distance of 15 km. Some incidents of cracked wallboard and foundations have been reported, but no significant damage has been documented. Preliminary locations, based on data from digital event recorders, suggest an average depth of 1.0 km. The hypocenters are in the Lithonia gneiss, a massive migmatite resistant to weathering and used locally as a building stone. The epicenters are 1 to 2 km south-southwest of the Norris Lake Community. The cause of the seismicity is not yet known. The earthquakes are characteristic of reservoir-induced earthquakes; however, Norris Lake is a small (96 acres), 2 to 5m deep recreational lake which has existed since the 1950s.

The Simulation of Five Tropical Cyclones by Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecasting Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihang Li ◽  
Zhiyan Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Xubin Zhang ◽  
Jingxuan Qu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting

scholarly journals C‐LAEF : Convection‐permitting Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Wastl ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Florian Weidle ◽  
Christoph Wittmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals Seismicity, focal mechanism, and stress tensor analysis of the Simav region, western Turkey

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 479-490
Author(s):  
Ahu Kömeç Mutlu
Keyword(s):  
Moment Tensor ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Movement Direction ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Normal Faulting ◽  
Stress Inversion ◽  
Western Turkey ◽  
Stress Orientations ◽  
Extension Direction ◽  
Inversion Analysis

AbstractThis study focuses on the seismicity and stress inversion analysis of the Simav region in western Turkey. The latest moderate-size earthquake was recorded on May 19, 2011 (Mw 5.9), with a dense aftershock sequence of more than 5,000 earthquakes in 6 months. Between 2004 and 2018, data from earthquake events with magnitudes greater than 0.7 were compiled from 86 seismic stations. The source mechanism of 54 earthquakes with moment magnitudes greater than 3.5 was derived by using a moment tensor inversion. Normal faults with oblique-slip motions are dominant being compatible with the NE-SW extension direction of western Turkey. The regional stress field is assessed from focal mechanisms. Vertically oriented maximum compressional stress (σ1) is consistent with the extensional regime in the region. The σ1 and σ3 stress axes suggest the WNW-ESE compression and the NNE-SSW dilatation. The principal stress orientations support the movement direction of the NE-SW extension consistent with the mainly observed normal faulting motions.

scholarly journals Evaluating the performance of two global ensemble forecasting systems in predicting rainfall over India during the southwest monsoons

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anumeha Dube ◽  
Raghavendra Ashrit ◽  
Harvir Singh ◽  
Kopal Arora ◽  
Gopal Iyengar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting

Aftershock sequence of the 9 May 1989 Canary Islands earthquake

1996 ◽  
Vol 255 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 157-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.J. Jiménez ◽  
M. García-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Canary Islands ◽  
Aftershock Sequence
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