Notice of Retraction: An ensemble forecasting model for port throughput

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Qu ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Shengjun Qin ◽  
Shuyong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Port Throughput

scholarly journals An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3020
Author(s):  
Anam-Nawaz Khan ◽  
Naeem Iqbal ◽  
Atif Rizwan ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Do-Hyeun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Floor Level ◽  
Consumption Data

Due to the availability of smart metering infrastructure, high-resolution electric consumption data is readily available to study the dynamics of residential electric consumption at finely resolved spatial and temporal scales. Analyzing the electric consumption data enables the policymakers and building owners to understand consumer’s demand-consumption behaviors. Furthermore, analysis and accurate forecasting of electric consumption are substantial for consumer involvement in time-of-use tariffs, critical peak pricing, and consumer-specific demand response initiatives. Alongside its vast economic and sustainability implications, such as energy wastage and decarbonization of the energy sector, accurate consumption forecasting facilitates power system planning and stable grid operations. Energy consumption forecasting is an active research area; despite the abundance of devised models, electric consumption forecasting in residential buildings remains challenging due to high occupant energy use behavior variability. Hence the search for an appropriate model for accurate electric consumption forecasting is ever continuing. To this aim, this paper presents a spatial and temporal ensemble forecasting model for short-term electric consumption forecasting. The proposed work involves exploring electric consumption profiles at the apartment level through cluster analysis based on the k-means algorithm. The ensemble forecasting model consists of two deep learning models; Long Short-Term Memory Unit (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). First, the apartment-level historical electric consumption data is clustered. Later the clusters are aggregated based on consumption profiles of consumers. At the building and floor level, the ensemble models are trained using aggregated electric consumption data. The proposed ensemble model forecasts the electric consumption at three spatial scales apartment, building, and floor level for hourly, daily, and weekly forecasting horizon. Furthermore, the impact of spatial-temporal granularity and cluster analysis on the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The dataset used in this study comprises high-resolution electric consumption data acquired through smart meters recorded on an hourly basis over the period of one year. The consumption data belongs to four multifamily residential buildings situated in an urban area of South Korea. To prove the effectiveness of our proposed forecasting model, we compared our model with widely known machine learning models and deep learning variants. The results achieved by our proposed ensemble scheme verify that model has learned the sequential behavior of electric consumption by producing superior performance with the lowest MAPE of 4.182 and 4.54 at building and floor level prediction, respectively. The experimental findings suggest that the model has efficiently captured the dynamic electric consumption characteristics to exploit ensemble model diversities and achieved lower forecasting error. The proposed ensemble forecasting scheme is well suited for predictive modeling and short-term load forecasting.

scholarly journals Forecasting Australian port throughput: Lessons and Pitfalls in the era of Big Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
soumya banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Port Development ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Port Throughput ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

Modelling and forecasting port throughput enables stakeholders to make efficient decisions ranging from management of port development, to infrastructure investments, operational restructuring and tariffs policy. Accurate forecasting of port throughput is also critical for long-term resource allocation and short-term strategic planning. In turn, efficient decision-making enhances the competitiveness of a port. However, in the era of big data we are faced with the enviable dilemma of having too much information. We pose the question: is more information always better for forecasting? We suggest that more information comes at the cost of more parameters of the forecasting model that need to be estimated. We comparemultiple forecasting models of varying degrees of complexity and quantify the effect of the amount of data on model forecasting accuracy. Our methodology serves as a guideline for practitioners in this field. We also enjoin caution that even in the era of big data more information may not always be better. It would be advisable for analysts to weigh the costs of adding more data: the ultimate decision would depend on the problem, amount of data and the kind of models being used.

scholarly journals Predicting the Carbon Price Sequence in the Shenzhen Emissions Exchange Using a Multiscale Ensemble Forecasting Model Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Xuechao Yu ◽  
Xiaolei Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
High Frequency Component ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Learning Machine

Accurately predicting the carbon price sequence is important and necessary for promoting the development of China’s national carbon trading market. In this paper, a multiscale ensemble forecasting model that is based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD-ADD) is proposed to predict the carbon price sequence. First, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is applied to decompose a carbon price sequence, SZA2013, into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual. Second, the IMFs and the residual are restructured via a fine-to-coarse reconstruction algorithm to generate three stationary and regular frequency components that high frequency component, low frequency component, and trend component. The fluctuation of each component can effectively reveal the factors that influence market operation. Third, extreme learning machine (ELM) is applied to forecast the trend component, support vector machine (SVM) is applied to forecast the low frequency component and the high frequency component is predicted via PSO-ELM, which means extreme learning machine whose input weights and bias threshold were optimized by particle swarm optimization. Then, the predicted values are combined to form a final predicted value. Finally, using the relevant error-type and trend-type performance indexes, the proposed multiscale ensemble forecasting model is shown to be more robust and accurate than the single format models. Three additional emission allowances from the Shenzhen Emissions Exchange are used to validate the model. The empirical results indicate that the established model is effective, efficient, and practical in terms of its statistical measures and prediction performance.

scholarly journals Forecasting Australian port throughput: Lessons and Pitfalls in the era of Big Data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
soumya banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Port Development ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Port Throughput ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

Modelling and forecasting port throughput enables stakeholders to make efficient decisions ranging from management of port development, to infrastructure investments, operational restructuring and tariffs policy. Accurate forecasting of port throughput is also critical forlong-term resource allocation and short-term strategic planning. In turn, efficient decision making enhances the competitiveness of a port. However, in the era of big data we are faced with the enviable dilemma of having too much information. We pose the question: is more information always better for forecasting? We suggest that more information comes at the cost of more parameters of the forecasting model that need to be estimated. We comparemultiple forecasting models of varying degrees of complexity and quantify the effect of the amount of data on model forecasting accuracy. Our methodology serves as a guideline for practitioners in this field. We also enjoin caution that even in the era of big data more information may not always be better. It would be advisable for analysts to weigh the costsof adding more data: the ultimate decision would depend on the problem, amount of data and the kind of models being used.

scholarly journals Time-Section Fusion Pattern Classification Based Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Ensemble Forecasting Model Using Mutual Iterative Optimization

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Wang ◽  
Zhao Zhen ◽  
Chun Liu ◽  
Zengqiang Mi ◽  
Miadreza Shafie-khah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Fusion ◽  
Pattern Classification ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Time Section ◽  
Iterative Optimization ◽  
Optimization Framework ◽  
Power Forecasting

Accurate solar PV power forecasting can provide expected future PV output power so as to help the system operator to dispatch traditional power plants to maintain the balance between supply and demand sides. However, under non-stationary weather conditions, such as cloudy or partly cloudy days, the variability of solar irradiance makes the accurate PV power forecasting a very hard task. Ensemble forecasting based on multiple models established by different theory has been proved as an effective means on improving forecasting accuracy. Classification modeling according to different patterns could reduce the complexity and difficulty of intro-class data fitting so as to improve the forecasting accuracy as well. When combining the two above points and focusing on the different fusion pattern specifically in terms of hourly time dimension, a time-section fusion pattern classification based day-ahead solar irradiance ensemble forecasting model using mutual iterative optimization is proposed, which contains multiple forecasting models based on wavelet decomposition (WD), fusion pattern classification model, and fusion models corresponding to each fusion pattern. First, the solar irradiance is forecasted using WD based models at different WD level. Second, the fusion pattern classification recognition model is trained and then applied to recognize the different fusion pattern at each hourly time section. At last, the final forecasting result is obtained using the optimal fusion model corresponding to the data fusion pattern. In addition, a mutual iterative optimization framework for the pattern classification and data fusion models is also proposed to improve the model’s performance. Simulations show that the mutual iterative optimization framework can effectively enhance the performance and coordination of pattern classification and data fusion models. The accuracy of the proposed solar irradiance day-ahead ensemble forecasting model is verified when compared with a standard Artificial Neural Network (ANN) forecasting model, five WD based models and a single ensemble forecasting model without time-section fusion classification.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Forecasting Model of Wind Power Outputs Based on Improved Statistical Approaches

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeojin Kim ◽  
Jin Hur
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Power Outputs

The number of wind-generating resources has increased considerably, owing to concerns over the environmental impact of fossil-fuel combustion. Therefore, wind power forecasting is becoming an important issue for large-scale wind power grid integration. Ensemble forecasting, which combines several forecasting techniques, is considered a viable alternative to conventional single-model-based forecasting for improving the forecasting accuracy. In this work, we propose the day-ahead ensemble forecasting of wind power using statistical methods. The ensemble forecasting model consists of three single forecasting approaches: autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX), support vector regression (SVR), and the Monte Carlo simulation-based power curve model. To apply the methodology, we conducted forecasting using the historical data of wind farms located on Jeju Island, Korea. The results were compared between a single model and an ensemble model to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method.

scholarly journals A Heterogeneous Ensemble Forecasting Model for Disease Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nonita Sharma ◽  
Jaiditya Dev ◽  
Monika Mangla ◽  
Vaishali Mehta Wadhwa ◽  
Sachi Nandan Mohanty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Disease Prediction ◽  
Heterogeneous Ensemble
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