Cyclone Amphan effects on the copepods of Ganges estuary

Tropical cyclones are increasingly affecting the estuarine communities. Impacts of category-5 tropical cyclone Amphan (landfall on 20 May 2020 near Ganges estuary mouth) on the copepod community of Muriganga section of Ganges estuary was studied by sampling the copepod assemblages before (February to December 2019), shortly after (31 May to 12 June 2020) and post (September to November 2020) cyclone. Hypothesis was shortly after Amphan a relatively homogenous community consists of a few estuarine specialist copepods would succeed but within months that community would be replaced by a heterogenous one but those estuarine specialists would continue their dominance. Shortly after Amphan, species richness declined but the recovery process completed within months led by herbivorous Paracalanus parvus, omnivorous Bestiolina similis, Acartia spinicauda, Acartiella tortaniformis, and carnivorous Oithona brevicornis. Spatial homogeneity of the community that prevailed in Muriganga in pre-Amphan and shorty after Amphan was lost in post-Amphan. Community composition changed from pre- to shortly after to post-Amphan. Unilateral dominance of B. similis observed in pre-Amphan was challenged by P. parvus, A. spinicauda, A. tortaniformis and O. brevicornis shortly after Amphan and in post-Amphan. Acartia spinicauda proliferated shortly after Amphan and co-dominated the estuary along with A. tortaniformis but the latter replaced the former in post-Amphan. Copepods did rebuild their community within a few months from Amphan but experienced rearrangements of species composition, abundance, dominance hierarchy and feeding guilds, which may strain benthic-pelagic linkages of Ganges estuary so shall be monitored regularly by coastal institutions following uniform methods and best practises.

Tropical cyclone frequency in the north Indian Ocean in relation to southern oscillation phenomenon

The present paper deals with the influence of Southern Oscillation (SO) on the frequency of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean. The results show that during the negative phase of SO the frequency of tropical cyclones and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea diminishes in May which is most important pre-monsoon cyclone month. The correlation coefficient between the frequency of cyclones and depressions and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is +0.3 which is significant at 99% level. Post-monsoon cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal during November shows a significant positive correlation with SOl implying that it also decreases during the negative phase of SO. Thus there is a reduction in the tropical cyclone frequency over the Bay of Bengal during both intense cyclone months May and November in EI-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) epochs. Therefore it would not be correct to say that ENSO has no impact on the cyclogenesis in the north Indian Ocean. It is true that ENSO has no significant impact on the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. ENSO also seems to affect the rate of intensification of depressions to cyclone stage. The rate of intensification increases in May and diminishes in November in the north Indian Ocean during ENSO. The results are based on the analysis of monthly frequencies of tropical cyclones and depressions and SOI for the 100 year period from 1891-1990.

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of the Diurnal Cycle in Two WRF Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

The properties of diurnal variability in tropical cyclones (TCs) and the mechanisms behind them remain an intriguing aspect of TC research. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of diurnal variability in two simulations of TCs to explore these mechanisms. One simulation is a well known Hurricane Nature Run, which is a realistic simulation of a TC produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The other simulation is a realistic simulation produced using WRF of Hurricane Florence (2018) using hourly ERA5 reanalysis data as input. Empirical orthogonal functions and Fourier filtering are used to analyze diurnal variability in the TCs. In both simulations a diurnal squall forms at sunrise in the inner core and propagates radially outwards and intensifies until midday. At midday the upper-level outflow strengthens, surface inflow weakens, and the cirrus canopy reaches its maximum height and radial extent. At sunset and overnight, the surface inflow is stronger, and convection inside the RMW peaks. Therefore, two diurnal cycles of convection exist in the TCs with different phases of maxima: eyewall convection at sunset and at night, and rainband convection in the early morning. This study finds that the diurnal pulse in the cirrus canopy is not advectively-driven, nor can it be attributed to weaker inertial stability at night; rather, the results indicate direct solar heating as a mechanism for cirrus canopy lifting and enhanced daytime outflow. These results show a strong diurnal modulation of tropical cyclone structure, and are consistent with other recent observational and modeling studies of the TC diurnal cycle.

The Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Temperature Profile Change

Theory indicates that tropical cyclone intensity should respond to changes in the vertical temperature profile. While the sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature is well understood, less is known about sensitivity to the temperature profile. In this paper, we combine historical data analysis and idealised modelling to explore the extent to which historical tropospheric warming and lower stratospheric cooling can explain observed trends in the tropical cyclone intensity distribution. Observations and modelling agree that historical global temperature profile changes coincide with higher lifetime maximum intensities. But observations suggest the response depends on the tropical cyclone intensity itself. Historical lower- and upper-tropospheric temperatures in hurricane environments have warmed significantly faster than the tropical mean. In addition, hurricane-strength storms have intensified at twice the rate of weaker storms per unit warming at the surface and at 300-hPa. Idealized simulations respond in the expected sense to various imposed changes in the temperature profile and agree with tropical cyclones operating as heat engines. Yet lower stratospheric temperature changes have little influence. Idealised modelling further shows an increasing altitude of the TC outflow but little change in outflow temperature. This enables increased efficiency for strong tropical cyclones despite the warming upper troposphere. Observed sensitivities are generally larger than modelled sensitivities, suggesting that observed tropical cyclone intensity change responds to a combination of the temperature profile change and other environmental factors.