The Norris Lake Earthquake Swarm of June Through September, 1993; Preliminary Findings

1994 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
L.T. Long ◽  
A. Kocaoglu ◽  
R. Hawman ◽  
P.J.W. Gore
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Swarm ◽  
Building Stone ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Average Depth ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Event Recorder ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Recreational Lake

Abstract During the summer of 1993, the residents in the Norris Lake community, Lithonia, Georgia, were bothered by an incessant swarm of earthquakes. The largest, a magnitude 2.7 on September 23, showed a normal aftershock decay and occurred after the main swarm. Over 10,000 earthquakes have been detected, of which perhaps 500 were felt. The earthquakes began June 8, 1993, with a 5-day swarm. The residents, accustomed to quarry explosions, suspected the quarries of irregular activities. To locate the source of the events, a visual recorder and a digital event recorder were placed in the epicentral area. Ten to 20 events were detected per day for the next three weeks. The swarm then escalated to a peak of over 100 per day by August 15, 1993. Activity following the peak died down to about 10 events per day. The magnitude 2.7 event of September 23 was followed by a normal aftershock sequence. The larger events were felt with intensity V within 2 km of their epicenter, and noticed (intensity II) to a distance of 15 km. Some incidents of cracked wallboard and foundations have been reported, but no significant damage has been documented. Preliminary locations, based on data from digital event recorders, suggest an average depth of 1.0 km. The hypocenters are in the Lithonia gneiss, a massive migmatite resistant to weathering and used locally as a building stone. The epicenters are 1 to 2 km south-southwest of the Norris Lake Community. The cause of the seismicity is not yet known. The earthquakes are characteristic of reservoir-induced earthquakes; however, Norris Lake is a small (96 acres), 2 to 5m deep recreational lake which has existed since the 1950s.

Earthquake migration in the Fairbanks, Alaska seismic zone

1980 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-241
Author(s):  
Larry Gedney ◽  
Steve Estes ◽  
Nirendra Biswas
Keyword(s):  
B Value ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Stress Axis ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Focal Mechanism Solutions ◽  
Relative Stress ◽  
Earthquake Migration ◽  
Dislocation Process ◽  
High Level

abstract Since a series of moderate earthquakes near Fairbanks, Alaska in 1967, the “Fairbanks seismic zone” has maintained a consistently high level of seismicity interspersed with sporadic earthquake swarms. Five swarms occurring since 1970 demonstrate that tightly compacted centers of activity have tended to migrate away from the epicentral area of the 1967 earthquakes. Comparative b-coefficients of the first four swarms indicate that they occurred under different relative stress conditions than the last episode, which exhibited a higher b-value and was, in fact, a main shock of magnitude 4.6 with a rapidly decaying aftershock sequence. This last recorded sequence in February 1979 was an extension to greater depths along a lineal seismic zone whose first recorded activation occurred during a swarm two years earlier. Focal mechanism solutions indicate a north-south orientation of the greatest principal stress axis, σ1, in the area. A dislocation process related to crustal spreading between strands of a right-lateral fault, similar to that which has been inferred for southern California, is suggested.

Geodolite measurements near the Briones Hills, California, earthquake swarm of January 8, 1977

1978 ◽  
Vol 68 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-180
Author(s):  
J. C. Savage ◽  
W. H. Prescott
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Swarm ◽  
Dislocation Model ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Observable Change ◽  
Measuring Techniques ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
Tilt Change ◽  
Distance Measuring

abstract Two geodetic stations, the positions of which are frequently monitored by geodetic distance-measuring techniques, were located 5 and 10 km from the epicentral area of the Briones Hills earthquake swarm (maximum magnitude ML = 4.3) of January 1977. Although a 10 μradian postearthquake tilt change was recorded at a nearby tiltmeter, no significant change in geodetic distances could be detected at a sensitivity of at least 0.5 ppm. A simple dislocation model of the main earthquake in the swarm would predict no observable change in either tilt or geodetic distance.

scholarly journals Statistical physics models for aftershocks and induced seismicity

2018 ◽  
Vol 377 (2136) ◽  
pp. 20170397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly Luginbuhl ◽  
John B. Rundle ◽  
Donald L. Turcotte
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Statistical Physics ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Aftershock Activity ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Natural Time ◽  
Parkfield Earthquake ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

A standard approach to quantifying the seismic hazard is the relative intensity (RI) method. It is assumed that the rate of seismicity is constant in time and the rate of occurrence of small earthquakes is extrapolated to large earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We introduce nowcasting to extend RI forecasting to time-dependent seismicity, for example, during an aftershock sequence. Nowcasting uses ‘natural time’; in seismicity natural time is the event count of small earthquakes. The event count for small earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes using Gutenberg–Richter scaling. We first review the concepts of natural time and nowcasting and then illustrate seismic nowcasting with three examples. We first consider the aftershock sequence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake on the San Andreas fault in California. Some earthquakes have higher rates of aftershock activity than other earthquakes of the same magnitude. Our approach allows the determination of the rate in real time during the aftershock sequence. We also consider two examples of induced earthquakes. Large injections of waste water from petroleum extraction have generated high rates of induced seismicity in Oklahoma. The extraction of natural gas from the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands has also generated very damaging earthquakes. In order to reduce the seismic activity, rates of injection and withdrawal have been reduced in these two cases. We show how nowcasting can be used to assess the success of these efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Statistical physics of fracture and earthquakes’.

Operational Aftershock Forecasting for 2017-2018 Seismic Sequence in Western Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Jalayer ◽  
Hossein Ebrahimian
Keyword(s):  
Model Updating ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Seismic Sequence ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Western Iran ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Robust Reliability

<p>On Sunday November 12, 2017, at 18:18:16 UTC, (21:48:16 local time), a strong earthquake with Mw7.3 occurred in western Iran in the border region between Iran and Iraq in vicinity of the Sarpol-e Zahab town. Unfortunately, this catastrophic seismic event caused 572 causalities, thousands of injured and vast amounts of damage to the buildings, houses and infrastructures in the epicentral area. The mainshock of this seismic sequence was felt in the entire western and central provinces of Iran and surrounding areas. The main event was preceded by a foreshock with magnitude 4.5 about 43 minutes before the mainshock that warned the local residence to leave their home and possibly reduced the number of human casualties. More than 2500 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 2.5 have been reported up to January 2019 with the largest registered aftershock of Mw6.4. A novel and fully-probabilistic procedure is adopted for providing spatio-temporal predictions of aftershock occurrence in a prescribed forecasting time interval (in the order of hours or days). The procedure aims at exploiting the information provided by the ongoing seismic sequence in quasi-real time. The versatility of the Bayesian inference is exploited to adaptively update the forecasts based on the incoming information as it becomes available. The aftershock clustering in space and time is modelled based on an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). One of the main novelties of the proposed procedure is that it considers the uncertainties in the aftershock occurrence model and its model parameters. This is done by moving within a framework of robust reliability assessment which enables the treatment of uncertainties in an integrated manner. Pairing up the Bayesian robust reliability framework and the suitable simulation schemes (Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation) provides the possibility of performing the whole forecasting procedure with minimum (or no) need of human interference. The fully simulation-based procedure is examined for both Bayesian model updating of ETAS spatio-temporal model and robust operational forecasting of the number of events of interest expected to happen in various time intervals after main events within the sequence. The seismicity is predicted within a confidence interval from the mean estimate.</p>

From earthquake swarm to a main shock–aftershocks: the 2018 activity in West Bohemia/Vogtland

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 1835-1848
Author(s):  
M Bachura ◽  
T Fischer ◽  
J Doubravová ◽  
J Horálek
Keyword(s):  
Main Shock ◽  
Fault Plane ◽  
Earthquake Swarm ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Differential Stress ◽  
West Bohemia ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Insight Into

SUMMARY In earthquake swarms, seismic energy is released gradually by many earthquakes without a dominant event, which offers detailed insight into the processes on activated faults. The swarm of May 2018 that occurred in West Bohemia/Vogtland region included more than 4000 earthquakes with ML =〈0.5, 3.8&x3009 x232A;and its character showed significant changes during the two weeks duration: what started as a pure earthquake swarm ended as a typical main shock–aftershock sequence. Based on precise double-difference relocations, four fault segments differing in strikes and dips were identified with similar dimensions. First, two segments of typical earthquake swarm character took place, and at the end a fault segment hosting a main shock–aftershock sequence was activated. The differences were observable in the earthquakes spatio-temporal evolutions (systematic versus disordered migration of the hypocentres), b-values (>1.3 for the swarm, <1 for the main shock–aftershocks), or the smoothness of seismic moment spatial distribution along the fault plane. Our findings can be interpreted by local variations of fault rheology, differential stress and/or smoothness of the faults surface, possibly related to the crustal fluids circulating along the fault plane and their interplay with the seismic cycle.

Rupture depths and source processes of the 1997-1998 earthquake sequence in central Italy

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 305-310
Author(s):  
Marco Olivieri ◽  
Göran Ekström
Keyword(s):  
Waveform Inversion ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Horizontal Component ◽  
Central Apennines ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Waveform Modeling ◽  
The North ◽  
Teleseismic Data ◽  
Significant Damage ◽  
Directivity Effects

Abstract The focal depths and the rupture processes of four moderate earthquakes, which occurred in central Italy during 1997 and 1998, are investigated using broadband teleseismic data. The earthquakes, the largest with MW = 6.0, caused significant damage in the epicentral area and are part of an unusual sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes to strike the central Apennines. For three of the events, the waveforms are found to be consistent with seismic ruptures confined to the top 5 to 7 km of the crust. Directivity effects are evident in the waveforms of the largest earthquake, and waveform inversion suggests an upward rupture with a horizontal component oriented toward the north. One earthquake (MW = 5.2) is confirmed from waveform modeling to have occurred at 50 km depth. This is the first event of this magnitude to have been located in the mantle beneath the Apennines.

Earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland and South-West Iceland: are they of similar nature?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef Horálek ◽  
Hana Jakoubková ◽  
Jana Doubravová ◽  
Martin Bachura
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Earthquake Swarm ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Swarms ◽  
A Value ◽  
South West ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
West Bohemia ◽  
Reykjanes Peninsula ◽  
Seismic Moment Release

<p>Earthquake swarms occurred worldwide in diverse geological units, however, their origin is still unclear. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe, South-West Iceland is characterized by intense interplate earthquake swarms. Both these areas exhibit high activity of crustal fluids.</p><p>We investigated earthquake swarms from W-Bohemia and from different areas in SW-Iceland: the Hengill volcanic complex, Ölfus transition zone (the edge of the SISZ), and Reykjanes Peninsula, from the perspective of their magnitude-time development, seismic moment release with time, the magnitude-frequency distribution and distribution of the inter-event times, and the space and time distribution of the foci. The aim was to determine the swarm characteristics that are dependent or vice-versa independent on the tectonic environment, and also the characteristics which should help us to distinguish more precisely earthquake swarms from mainshock-aftershock sequences.</p><p>We found that the frequency-magnitude (b-values) and inter-event-time distributions are similar for both areas, while total seismic moment release and its rate are much larger for the SW Icelandic activities compared to the W-Bohemia ones. One dominant short-term swarm phase with one or a few dominant events in which significant part of M<sub>0tot</sub> released, is typical of the SW Icelandic swarms, whereas the W-Bohemia swarms are characterised by stepwise seismic moment release, which is manifested by several swarm phases. MFDs of the SW-Iceland swarms indicate significantly lower a-value (number of M<sub>L</sub> > 0 evens), particularly of those on the Reykjanes Peninsula, compared to W-Bohemia swarms; it is due to the fact that considerable amount of M<sub>0tot </sub>released in quasi-mainshocks and the rest in aftershocks; lower a-value was also found for the W-Bohemian mainshock-aftershock sequence in 2014. The W-Bohemian swarms took place in a bounded focal zone consisting of several fault segments but the SW-Icelandic swarms correspond well to tectonic structures along the Mid Atlantic Ridge. We conclude that most of the W-Bohemia earthquake swarms were series of subswarms with one or more embedded mainshock-aftershock sequences, while the SW-Icelandic swarms (particularly those on the Reykjanes Peninsula appear to be a transition between earthquake swarm and mainshock-aftershock sequence. The W-Bohemia and SW-Iceland focal zones are characterized by complex system of short, differently oriented faults/fault segments; interestingly, the W-Bohemia and some SW-Icelandic focal zones exhibit coexistence of faults susceptible to earthquake swarms and differently oriented faults predisposed to common earthquakes (mainshock-aftershocks).</p>

Short-Term Probabilistic Hazard Assessment in Regions of Induced Seismicity

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2441-2453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ganyu Teng ◽  
Jack W. Baker
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Occurrence ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wastewater Disposal ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
Natural Earthquakes

ABSTRACT This project introduces short-term hazard assessment frameworks for regions with induced seismicity. The short-term hazard is the hazard induced during the injection for hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes. For wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes, it is the hazard within a few days after an observed earthquake. In West Texas, hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes cluster around the injection activities, and the earthquake occurrence varies greatly in time and space. We develop a method to estimate the hazard level at the production site during the injection, based on past injection and earthquake records. The results suggest that the injection volume has a negligible effect on short-term earthquake occurrence in this case, because injection volumes per well fall within a relatively narrow range, whereas the regional variations in seismic productivity of wells and b-values are important. The framework could be easily modified for implementation in other regions with hydraulic-fracturing-induced earthquakes. We then compare the framework with wastewater-disposal-induced earthquakes in Oklahoma–Kansas and natural earthquakes in California. We found that drivers of short-term seismic hazard differ for the three cases. In West Texas, clustered earthquakes dominate seismic hazards near production sites. However, for Oklahoma–Kansas and California, the short-term earthquake occurrence after an observed mainshock could be well described by the mainshock–aftershock sequence. For Stillwater in Oklahoma, aftershocks contribute less to the hazard than San Francisco in California, due to the high Poissonian mainshock rate. For the rate of exceeding a modified Mercalli intensity of 3 within 7 days after an M 4 earthquake, the aftershock sequence from natural earthquakes contributed 85% of the hazard level, whereas the aftershock contribution was only 60% for induced earthquakes in Oklahoma. Although different models were implemented for hazard calculations in regions with hydraulic fracturing versus wastewater injection, injection activities could be drivers of short-term hazard in both cases.

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