Background. Initially the course of the 2009 swine flu
pandemic was uncertain and impossible to predict with any confidence.
An effective prospective data resource exists in the United Kingdom
(UK) that could have been utilized to describe the scope and extent of
the swine flu outbreak as it unfolded. We describe the 2009 swine flu
outbreak in the UK as recorded daily by general practitioners and the
potential use of this database for real-time tracking of flu
outbreaks. Methods. Using the General Practice
Research Database, a real-time general practice, electronic database,
we estimated influenza incidence from July 1998 to September 2009
according to age, region, and calendar time. Results.
From 1998 to2008, influenza outbreaks regularly occurred yearly from
October to March, but did not typically occur from April to September
until the swine flu outbreak began in April 2009. The weekly incidence
rose gradually, peaking at the end of July, and the outbreak had
largely dissipated by early September. Conclusions.
The UK swine flu outbreak, recorded in real time by a large
group of general practitioners, was mild and limited in time.
Simultaneous online access seemed feasible and could have provided additional clinical-based evidence at an
early planning stage of the outbreak.
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