Evaluation and statistical downscaling of East Asian summer monsoon forecasting in BCC and MOHC seasonal prediction systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 144 (717) ◽  
pp. 2798-2811 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Liu ◽  
Hong‐Li Ren ◽  
Adam A. Scaife ◽  
Chaofan Li
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Prediction Systems

Improvement of Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Prediction Skills over East Asian Summer Monsoon Region Using a Climate Filter Concept

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 1127-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo Young Lee ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn ◽  
Karumuri Ashok
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Suitable Climate ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Summer Monsoon Region

AbstractThe authors propose the use of a “climate filter” concept to enhance prediction skill of a multimodel ensemble (MME) suite for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature at 850 hPa. The method envisages grading models on the basis of the degree of reproducibility of the association of EASM variability with a few relevant climate drivers with the respective model hindcasts for the period 1981–2003. The analysis identifies the previous winter Niño-3.4 and spring North Atlantic Oscillation indices as the most suitable climate drivers in designing a climate filter for evaluating models that replicate the observed teleconnections to EASM well. The results show that the hindcast skills of a new MME with the better-performing models are significantly higher than those from the nonperforming models or from an all-inclusive operational MME.

scholarly journals Pattern-based statistical downscaling of East Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation

2013 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 19749 ◽  
Author(s):  
THORSTEN Simon ◽  
ANDREAS Hense ◽  
BUDA Su ◽  
TONG Jiang ◽  
CLEMENS Simmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Asian Summer

scholarly journals An empirical seasonal prediction model of the east Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO

2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (D18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Asian Summer

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 985-997
Author(s):  
Bo Huang ◽  
Ulrich Cubasch ◽  
Christopher Kadow
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Prediction Systems

Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important part of the global climate system and plays a vital role in the Asian climate. Its seasonal predictability is a long-standing issue within the monsoon scientist community. In this study, we analyse the seasonal (the leading time is at least 6 months) prediction skill of the EASM rainfall and its associated general circulation in non-initialised and initialised simulations for the years 1979–2005, which are performed by six prediction systems (i.e. the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, the GFDL-CM2p1, the HadCM3, the MIROC5, and the MPI-ESM-LR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP 5). We find that most prediction systems of simulated zonal wind over 850 and 200 hPa are significantly improved in the initialised simulations compared to non-initialised simulations. Based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM, we select an EASM index based upon the zonal wind over 850 hPa for further analysis. This assessment shows that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 added prediction skill in simulating the EASM index with initialisation, the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, and the MPI-ESM-LR changed the skill insignificantly, and the HadCM3 indicates a decreased skill score. The different responses to initialisation can be traced back to the ability of the models to capture the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and EASM coupled mode, particularly the Southern Oscillation–EASM coupled mode. As is known from observation studies, this mode links the oceanic circulation and the EASM rainfall. Overall, the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 are capable of predicting the EASM on a seasonal timescale under the current initialisation strategy.

scholarly journals Efficient transport of atmospheric microplastics onto the continent via the East Asian summer monsoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 414 ◽  
pp. 125477
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Lixin Zhu ◽  
Changjun Li ◽  
Zhangyu Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Efficient Transport

scholarly journals Holocene variability of East Asian summer monsoon as viewed from the speleothem δ18O records in central China

2021 ◽  
Vol 558 ◽  
pp. 116758
Author(s):  
Yanjun Cai ◽  
Xing Cheng ◽  
Le Ma ◽  
Ruixue Mao ◽  
Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Central China ◽  
Asian Summer

Nonlinear, Intraseasonal Phases of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Extraction and Analysis Using Self-Organizing Maps

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 6975-6988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Eun Chu ◽  
Saji N. Hameed ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract The hypothesis that regional characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) result from the presence of nonlinear coupled features that modulate the seasonal circulation and rainfall at the intraseasonal time scale is advanced in this study. To examine this hypothesis, the authors undertake the analysis of daily EASM variability using a nonlinear multivariate data classifying algorithm known as self-organizing mapping (SOM). On the basis of various SOM node analyses, four major intraseasonal phases of the EASM are identified. The first node describes a circulation state corresponding to weak tropical and subtropical pressure systems, strong upper-level jets, weakened monsoonal winds, and cyclonic upper-level vorticity. This mode, related to large rainfall anomalies in southeast China and southern Japan, is identified as the mei-yu–baiu phase. The second node represents a distinct circulation state corresponding to a strengthened subtropical high, monsoonal winds, and anticyclonic upper-level vorticity in southeast Korea, which is identified as the changma phase. The third node is related to copious rain over Korea following changma, which we name the postchangma phase. The fourth node is situated diagonally opposite the changma mode. Because Korea experiences a dry spell associated with this SOM node, it is referred to as the dry-spell phase. The authors also demonstrate that a strong modulation of the changma and dry-spell phases on interannual time scales occurs during El Niño and La Niña years. Results imply that the key to predictability of the EASM on interannual time scales may lie with analysis and exploitation of its nonlinear characteristics.

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