Abstract. Despite the importance of monsoon rainfall to over half
of the world's population, many climate models of the current generation
struggle to capture some of the major features of the various monsoon
systems. Studies of the development of errors in several tropical regions
have shown that they start to develop very quickly, within the first few
days of a model simulation, and can then persist to climate timescales.
Understanding the sources of such errors requires the combination of various
modelling techniques and sensitivity experiments of varying complexity.
Here, we demonstrate how such analysis can shed light on the way in which
monsoon errors develop, their local and remote drivers and feedbacks. We
make use of the seamless modelling approach adopted by the Met Office,
whereby different applications of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) use
essentially the same model configuration (dynamical core and physical
parameterisations) across a range of spatial and temporal scales. Using the
Asian summer monsoon (ASM) as an example, we show that error patterns in
circulation and rainfall over the ASM region in the MetUM are similar
between multidecadal climate simulations and seasonal hindcasts initialised
in spring. Analysis of the development of these errors on both short-range
and seasonal timescales following model initialisation suggests that both
the Maritime Continent and the oceans around the Philippines play a role in
the development of East Asian summer monsoon errors, with the Indian summer
monsoon region providing an additional contribution, while the errors over
the Indian summer monsoon region itself appear to arise locally. Regional
modelling with various lateral boundary locations helps to separate local
and remote contributions to the errors, while regional relaxation
experiments shed light on the influence of errors developing within
particular areas on the region as a whole.