Impacts of Different Perturbation Methods on Multiscale Interactions between Multisource Perturbations for Convection‐Permitting Ensemble Forecasting during SCMREX

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xubin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Multiscale Interactions

Case Dependence of Multiscale Interactions between Multisource Perturbations for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting during SCMREX

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xubin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Control Member ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Perturbation Energy

AbstractThis study examines the case dependence of the multiscale characteristics of initial condition (IC) and model physics (MO) perturbations and their interactions in a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (CPEPS), focusing on the 12-h forecasts of precipitation perturbation energy. The case dependence of forecast performances of various ensemble configurations is also examined to gain guidance for CPEPS design. Heavy-rainfall cases over Southern China during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) in May 2014 were discriminated between the strongly and weakly forced events in terms of synoptic-scale forcing, each of which included 10 cases. In the cases with weaker forcing, MO perturbations showed larger influences while the enhancements of convective activities relative to the control member due to IC perturbations were less evident, leading to smaller dispersion reduction due to adding MO perturbations to IC perturbations. Such dispersion reduction was more sensitive to IC and MO perturbation methods in the weakly and strongly forced cases, respectively. The dispersion reduction improved the probabilistic forecasts of precipitation, with more evident improvements in the cases with weaker forcing. To improve the benefits of dispersion reduction in forecasts, it is instructive to elaborately consider the case dependence of dispersion reduction, especially the various sensitivities of dispersion reduction to different-source perturbation methods in various cases, in CPEPS design.

Perturbation Methods

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Murdock
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods

Perturbation Methods in Stability and Norm Analysis of Spatially Periodic Systems

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Makan Fardad ◽  
Bassam Bamieh
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods ◽  
Periodic Systems ◽  
Spatially Periodic

scholarly journals Entropy-based member selection in a GCM ensemble forecasting

2006 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F. J. Tapiador ◽  
C. Gallardo
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Member Selection

The Simulation of Five Tropical Cyclones by Sample Optimization of Ensemble Forecasting Based on the Observed Track and Intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihang Li ◽  
Zhiyan Zhang ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Xubin Zhang ◽  
Jingxuan Qu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting

scholarly journals C‐LAEF : Convection‐permitting Limited‐Area Ensemble Forecasting system

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Wastl ◽  
Yong Wang ◽  
Aitor Atencia ◽  
Florian Weidle ◽  
Christoph Wittmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Forecasting System

scholarly journals Existence Results for the Conformal Dirac–Einstein System

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiara Guidi ◽  
Ali Maalaoui ◽  
Vittorio Martino
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods ◽  
Existence Of Solutions ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Existence Results ◽  
First Variation ◽  
The First Variation

AbstractWe consider the coupled system given by the first variation of the conformal Dirac–Einstein functional. We will show existence of solutions by means of perturbation methods.

Notice of Retraction: An ensemble forecasting model for port throughput

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Qu ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Shengjun Qin ◽  
Shuyong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Port Throughput
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