The False Consensus Effect and Overconfidence: Flaws in Judgment or Flaws in How We Study Judgment?

1996 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robyn M. Dawes ◽  
Matthew Mulford
Keyword(s):  
False Consensus Effect ◽  
False Consensus

scholarly journals EXPRESS: Marketers Project Their Personal Preferences onto Consumers: Overcoming the Threat of Egocentric Decision Making

2021 ◽  
pp. 002224372199837
Author(s):  
Walter Herzog ◽  
Johannes D. Hattula ◽  
Darren W. Dahl
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Consumer Preferences ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Pilot Studies ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Marketing Managers ◽  
False Consensus Effect ◽  
False Consensus ◽  
High Level

This research explores how marketing managers can avoid the so-called false consensus effect—the egocentric tendency to project personal preferences onto consumers. Two pilot studies were conducted to provide evidence for the managerial importance of this research question and to explore how marketing managers attempt to avoid false consensus effects in practice. The results suggest that the debiasing tactic most frequently used by marketers is to suppress their personal preferences when predicting consumer preferences. Four subsequent studies show that, ironically, this debiasing tactic can backfire and increase managers’ susceptibility to the false consensus effect. Specifically, the results suggest that these backfire effects are most likely to occur for managers with a low level of preference certainty. In contrast, the results imply that preference suppression does not backfire but instead decreases false consensus effects for managers with a high level of preference certainty. Finally, the studies explore the mechanism behind these results and show how managers can ultimately avoid false consensus effects—regardless of their level of preference certainty and without risking backfire effects.

The Role of Self in the False Consensus Effect

1995 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Alicke ◽  
Edward Largo
Keyword(s):  
False Consensus Effect ◽  
False Consensus
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