Euro Adoption in Romania

Author(s):  
Ionuţ Dumitru
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Ihor Soroka

The question of whether or not to adopt the euro is a very important one, not only for the 13 European Union members that do not share the same currency, but also for future EU candidates. Current literature on the effect of the euro on trade is scarce since the European Monetary Union (EMU) was officially created in 1999, and up until recently there has not been enough data to analyze this issue. This paper aims to estimate the effect of the euro on trade between member countries using the standard gravity model of trade. Using data from current 25 EU members over the period from 1997 to 2004, I show that higher trade volumes between EMU members cannot be attributed to the adoption of the euro. I find evidence that the euro adoption has had a short-run effect on bilateral trade and that this effect is eliminated over a short period of time. My findings suggest that members of the EMU trade on average from 8.8% to 47% more compared to non-members depending on the type of regression used, while members of the Free Trade Agreement trade 61.3% more. The effect of the euro on trade is eliminated as soon as I control for country-pair specific effects that include the FTA effect as well as history of trade relations between two countries. I conclude that the adoption of the euro should be seen as a final step in the European economic and monetary integration for countries that already benefit from relatively high volumes of bilateral trade. Full text availale at: https://doi.org/10.22215/rera.v2i1.166


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert Buscher ◽  
Hubert Gabrisch
Keyword(s):  

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ihor Soroka

The question of whether or not to adopt the euro is a very important one, not only for the 13 European Union members that do not share the same currency, but also for future EU candidates. Current literature on the effect of the euro on trade is scarce since the European Monetary Union (EMU) was officially created in 1999, and up until recently there has not been enough data to analyze this issue. This paper aims to estimate the effect of the euro on trade between member countries using the standard gravity model of trade. Using data from current 25 EU members over the period from 1997 to 2004, I show that higher trade volumes between EMU members cannot be attributed to the adoption of the euro. I find evidence that the euro adoption has had a short-run effect on bilateral trade and that this effect is eliminated over a short period of time. My findings suggest that members of the EMU trade on average from 8.8% to 47% more compared to non-members depending on the type of regression used, while members of the Free Trade Agreement trade 61.3% more. The effect of the euro on trade is eliminated as soon as I control for country-pair specific effects that include the FTA effect as well as history of trade relations between two countries. I conclude that the adoption of the euro should be seen as a final step in the European economic and monetary integration for countries that already benefit from relatively high volumes of bilateral trade.


Author(s):  
Susan Schadler ◽  
Zuzana Murgasova ◽  
Rachel van Elkan
Keyword(s):  

Subject Bulgaria’s moves towards euro adoption. Significance Bulgaria wants to participate in the EU’s Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), which fixes non-euro currencies against the euro within a fluctuation band. Problem-free participation for at least two years is one of the convergence criteria for eventually entering the euro-area. Bulgaria’s motivation is mostly political: to align the country, geographically and economically on the EU’s periphery, with core EU institutions and gain a place at the negotiating table as the post-Brexit EU faces major changes. Impacts All three major ratings agencies class Bulgarian sovereign debt as investment grade (albeit the second-lowest grade) with positive outlook. There are doubts whether Bulgaria can qualify to join the euro within the minimum two years. There is opposition to euro adoption from some shadowy groups preferring a less-regulated, more loosely supervised financial environment. Circles seeking to weaken EU influence and bring Bulgaria closer to Russia will step up efforts to thwart the process.


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