Corporate risk-taking after changes in credit rating

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate corporate risk-taking following changes in firms' credit ratings (CR) and the mechanisms the firms use in implementing the risk-taking.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs fixed-effect regression models to examine risk-taking behaviour after firms experience changes in CR after their ratings are downgraded to the lower edge of the investment grade rating (i.e. BBB-) and after their CRs are downgraded below the investment rating.FindingsThe paper finds that, whilst in general, changes in CR are negatively associated with post-event risk-taking, firms downgraded to BBB- do not increase their risk-taking. Only when firms are rated below this grade, firms significantly increase their risk-taking, suggesting that the association between downgrades in CR and firm risk-taking following the event is not linear. Further analysis suggests that these downgraded firms do not increase research and development (R&D) expenses or capital expenditures but employ long-term debt as their risk-taking mechanism.Practical implicationsThe findings of the paper have practical implications for investors considering investing in downgraded-rating firms to shareholders of such firms and especially to those overseeing the firms' risk-taking policies.Originality/valueThe study fills the gap in the literature by providing empirical evidence on corporate risk-taking after changes in CR and also contributes to the optimal debt-maturity choice literature.

A Global Shock with Idiosyncratic Pains: State-Dependent Debt Limits for LATAM during the COVID-19 pandemic

Fiscal sustainability in five of the largest Latin American economies is examined before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, the DSGE model in Bi(2012) and Hürtgen (2020) is used to estimate the Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Spaces for Peru, Chile, Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. These estimates advance the empirical literature for Latin America on fiscal sustainability by offering new calculations stemming from a structural framework with alluring novel features: government default on the intensive margin; dynamic Laffer curves; utility-based stochastic discount factor; and a Markov-Switching process for public transfers with an explosive regime. The most notable additions to the existing literature for Latin America are the estimations of entire distributions of public debt limits for various default probabilities and that said limits critically hinge on both current and future states. Results obtained indicate notorious contractions of Fiscal Spaces among all countries during the pandemic, but the sizes of these were very heterogeneous. Countries that in 2019 had positive spaces and got closer to negative spaces in 2020, have since seen deterioration of their sovereign debt ratings or outlooks. Colombia was the only country to lose its positive Fiscal Space and investment grade, thereby joining Brazil, the previously sole member of both groups

Analysis of Floating Rate Bonds and the Firm Characteristics

We examine the security and firm characteristics of a sample of 2,027 non-convertible investment grade floating rate securities (bonds) issued by the US based firms between 1980 and 2018. These bonds pay a coupon based on short term reference rate, such as fed funds rate, plus a fixed quoted margin. Considerable number (81.6%) of these issues are between 1992 and 2007 signifying floating rate as an effective mechanism to mitigate firm’s interest rate risk when the rates are high and expected to fall. A positive and significant abnormal return (CAR = 0.27%), in the event window surrounding issue date, provides strong evidence that the floating rate is viewed as a less restrictive provision as compared to the call option. Majority of the issues (89.3%) are non-callable since the floating rate mitigates interest rate risk for the issuing firm. Lack of put provision in these bonds (in only 7.35% of the sample issues) signifies no significant investor concerns of falling bond prices. Regression analysis reveals that firms with growth options and with higher leverage experience positive CAR due to the financial flexibility these bonds provide. Firms with higher level of information asymmetry benefits less from issuing these securities since most of these bonds (90.13%) are issued at par therefore, the price is not likely to carry information content that mitigates information asymmetry between the firms and the investors.

Sowing the Seeds of a Future Crisis: The SEC and the Emergence of the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) Category, 1971–1975

Since 2008, academics and policymakers have frequently debated why bond rating agencies such as Moody's, S&P, and Fitch enjoy considerable power and influence. The 2008 financial crisis focused our attention on the bond rating agencies that had previously categorized mortgage-backed securities as investment grade. Scholars have attributed the power enjoyed by the rating agencies to regulations that confer a privileged status on those agencies that are designated as nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (NRSROs) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). While these authors mention in passing that the relevant regulation went into effect in 1975, none has conducted archival research to examine why this regulation was introduced at that time. This article is the first historical investigation of the creation of this crucial regulation, which entrenched the concept of the NRSRO in federal securities law. It shows that the SEC mandated the use of NRSRO-created ratings even though SEC officials vigorously debated whether it was wise for the commission to endorse ratings produced by agencies that operate on the basis of the controversial issuer-pay model. This article contributes to our understanding of the SEC's role in the development of the distinctive features of American capitalism.

The impact of simultaneous holdings of equity and debt on financial covenants in debt contracts

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of non-commercial banking institutions’ simultaneous holdings of equity and debt in the same firm (hereafter, dual holdings) on financial covenants in debt contracts. Design/methodology/approach By using the DealScan database, this study tests how dual holdings affect the number of financial debt covenants. Findings This study finds that the presence of dual holders is positively associated with the number of financial covenants in general, suggesting that the use of financial covenants is reduced when the interests between shareholders and creditors are aligned. This study also finds that dual holder participation does not reduce the number of financial covenants in leveraged loans as much as it does in investment-grade loans. Additionally, when a dual holder has a large portion of equity stakes and loan claims in a borrowing firm, the effect of dual holdings on financial covenants is more pronounced. Originality/value This study contributes to debt market research by showing that dual holder participation reduces the number of financial covenants in debt contracts.

How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9

PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

Semiparametric Estimation of a Corporate Bond Rating Model

This paper investigates the incentive of credit rating agencies (CRAs) to bias ratings using a semiparametric, ordered-response model. The proposed model explicitly takes conflicts of interest into account and allows the ratings to depend flexibly on risk attributes through a semiparametric index structure. Asymptotic normality for the estimator is derived after using several bias correction techniques. Using Moody’s rating data from 2001 to 2016, I found that firms related to Moody’s shareholders were more likely to receive better ratings. Such favorable treatments were more pronounced in investment grade bonds compared with high yield bonds, with the 2007–2009 financial crisis being an exception. Parametric models, such as the ordered-probit, failed to identify this heterogeneity of the rating bias across different bond categories.

DETECTING OF BOND DEFAULTS INDICATIONS USING FINANCIAL STATEMENT AND SHENANIGANS INDICATORS

<em>This study aims to detect indications of bond defaults by conducting a thorough analysis of PT Trikomsel Oke, Tbk (TRIO)'s financial statements. TRIO's financial statements show that the company's revenue and profits increased during 2009-2014. However, the Indonesia rating agency (PEFINDO) declared default on the two bonds issued by TRIO in November 2015, even though the signal TRIO gave to its financial statements was an unqualified opinion from one of the big 4 Public Accountants for six consecutive years and PEFINDO's investment grade. This study uses a case study method.. Financial report data are analyzed by financial ratios and financial indicators of shenanigans. Evidence shows that there are indications of creative accounting and shenanigans before bonds were declared defaulted in 2015. With these results, this study suggests investors and creditors be more vigilant in analyzing published annual reports</em>

Pengaruh leverage, Likuiditas dan Profitabilitas Terhadap Peringkat Obligasi Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar di PT. Pefindo Periode 2015-2019

Bond rating information shows the extent to which the company is able to pay its obligations and shows the level risk or security of the bond. The rating of a bond is investment grade, the risk of default on a company’s debt is unavoidable. The purpose of study was to determine how much influence Leverage, Liquidity, and Profitability on Bond Ratings in manufacturing companies listed at PT. PEFINDO for the period 2015-2019. The Sampling technique used purposive sampling method and obtained as many as 65 data. Data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange through the website www.idx.co.id. The analysis method used is panel data regression analysis with the help of the E-Views 8 application. After the chow-test was carried out, it was decided to use the Common Effect Model method. The results showed that Leverage has a negative effect on Bond Ratings. Liquidity has no effect on Bond Ratings, and Profitability has a positive effect on Bond Ratings