Sample-Path Stability

Author(s):  
Muhammad El-Taha ◽  
Shaler Stidham
Keyword(s):  
1994 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad El-Taha ◽  
Shaler Stidham

We extend our studies of sample-path stability to multiserver input-output processes with conditional output rates that may depend on the state of the system and other auxiliary processes. Our results include processes with countable as well as uncountable state spaces. We establish rate stability conditions for busy period durations as well as the input during busy periods. In addition, stability conditions for multiserver queues with possibly heterogeneous servers are given for the workload, attained service, and queue length processes. The stability conditions can be checked from parameters of primary processes, and thus can be verified a priori. Under the rate stability conditions, we provide stable versions of Little's formula for single server as well as multiserver queues. Our approach leads to extensions of previously known results. Since our results are valid pathwise, non-stationary as well as stationary processes are covered.


Genetics ◽  
1974 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 367-377
Author(s):  
Takeo Maruyama

ABSTRACT A Markov process (chain) of gene frequency change is derived for a geographically-structured model of a population. The population consists of colonies which are connected by migration. Selection operates in each colony independently. It is shown that there exists a stochastic clock that transforms the originally complicated process of gene frequency change to a random walk which is independent of the geographical structure of the population. The time parameter is a local random time that is dependent on the sample path. In fact, if the alleles are selectively neutral, the time parameter is exactly equal to the sum of the average local genetic variation appearing in the population, and otherwise they are approximately equal. The Kolmogorov forward and backward equations of the process are obtained. As a limit of large population size, a diffusion process is derived. The transition probabilities of the Markov chain and of the diffusion process are obtained explicitly. Certain quantities of biological interest are shown to be independent of the population structure. The quantities are the fixation probability of a mutant, the sum of the average local genetic variation and the variation summed over the generations in which the gene frequency in the whole population assumes a specified value.


Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Just ◽  
Krzysztof Echaust

The appropriate choice of a threshold level, which separates the tails of the probability distribution of a random variable from its middle part, is considered to be a very complex and challenging task. This paper provides an empirical study on various methods of the optimal tail selection in risk measurement. The results indicate which method may be useful in practice for investors and financial and regulatory institutions. Some methods that perform well in simulation studies, based on theoretical distributions, may not perform well when real data are in use. We analyze twelve methods with different parameters for forty-eight world indices using returns from the period of 2000–Q1 2020 and four sub-periods. The research objective is to compare the methods and to identify those which can be recognized as useful in risk measurement. The results suggest that only four tail selection methods, i.e., the Path Stability algorithm, the minimization of the Asymptotic Mean Squared Error approach, the automated Eyeball method with carefully selected tuning parameters and the Hall single bootstrap procedure may be useful in practical applications.


Author(s):  
Maria Lucia Parrella ◽  
Giuseppina Albano ◽  
Cira Perna ◽  
Michele La Rocca

AbstractMissing data reconstruction is a critical step in the analysis and mining of spatio-temporal data. However, few studies comprehensively consider missing data patterns, sample selection and spatio-temporal relationships. To take into account the uncertainty in the point forecast, some prediction intervals may be of interest. In particular, for (possibly long) missing sequences of consecutive time points, joint prediction regions are desirable. In this paper we propose a bootstrap resampling scheme to construct joint prediction regions that approximately contain missing paths of a time components in a spatio-temporal framework, with global probability $$1-\alpha $$ 1 - α . In many applications, considering the coverage of the whole missing sample-path might appear too restrictive. To perceive more informative inference, we also derive smaller joint prediction regions that only contain all elements of missing paths up to a small number k of them with probability $$1-\alpha $$ 1 - α . A simulation experiment is performed to validate the empirical performance of the proposed joint bootstrap prediction and to compare it with some alternative procedures based on a simple nominal coverage correction, loosely inspired by the Bonferroni approach, which are expected to work well standard scenarios.


1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nico M van Dijk ◽  
Pantelis Tsoucas ◽  
Jean Walrand

Simple and insensitive lower and upper bounds are proposed for the call congestion of M/GI/c/n queues. To prove them we establish the general monotonicity property that increasing the waiting room and/or the number of servers in a /GI/c/n queue increases the throughput. An asymptotic result on the number of busy servers is obtained as a consequence of the bounds. Numerical evidence as well as an application to optimal design illustrates the potential usefulness for engineering purposes. The proof is based on a sample path argument.


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