Conclusion

Trauma and Resilience Among Displaced Populations ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-67712-1_12 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 277-305

Author(s):

Gail Theisen-Womersley

Keyword(s):

Asylum Seeker ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Political Instability ◽

Transcultural Psychiatry ◽

Psychological Impairment ◽

Global Increase

AbstractThe number of refugees across the globe is growing dramatically—a trend predicted to continue due to a global increase in social and political instability as well as socioeconomic conflicts. In places where violence is seen as a necessary factor in achieving peace, ongoing armed conflict, and displacement will likely contribute to continued psychological impairment and suffering among those affected (Morina et al., .Frontiers in Psychiatry 9:433, 2018). Indeed, research overwhelmingly attests to the alarmingly high rates of PTSD among this population (Schouler-Ocak, M., Laban, C. J., Bäärnhielm, S., Kastrup, M. C., Dein, S., & Wintrob, R. (2019). Transcultural psychiatry: Refugee, asylum seeker and immigrant patients over the globe. In A. Javad & K. Fountoulakis (Eds.), Advances in Psychiatry (pp. 637–655). Cham: Springer.).

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Women in Libya: The Ongoing Armed Conflict, Political Instability and Radicalization

North African Women after the Arab Spring ◽

10.1007/978-3-319-49926-0_12 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 239-249

Author(s):

Asmae Khalifa

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

Political Instability

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The Future is a Moving Target: Predicting Political Instability

British Journal of Political Science ◽

10.1017/s0007123418000443 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 50 (4) ◽

pp. 1405-1417 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Drew Bowlsby ◽

Erica Chenoweth ◽

Cullen Hendrix ◽

Jonathan D. Moyer

Keyword(s):

Political Institutions ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Predictive Power ◽

Political Instability ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

State Level ◽

Recent Period ◽

Arab Uprisings ◽

Out Of Sample ◽

Over Time

AbstractPrevious research by Goldstone et al. (2010) generated a highly accurate predictive model of state-level political instability. Notably, this model identifies political institutions – and partial democracy with factionalism, specifically – as the most compelling factors explaining when and where instability events are likely to occur. This article reassesses the model’s explanatory power and makes three related points: (1) the model’s predictive power varies substantially over time; (2) its predictive power peaked in the period used for out-of-sample validation (1995–2004) in the original study and (3) the model performs relatively poorly in the more recent period. The authors find that this decline is not simply due to the Arab Uprisings, instability events that occurred in autocracies. Similar issues are found with attempts to predict nonviolent uprisings (Chenoweth and Ulfelder 2017) and armed conflict onset and continuation (Hegre et al. 2013). These results inform two conclusions: (1) the drivers of instability are not constant over time and (2) care must be exercised in interpreting prediction exercises as evidence in favor or dispositive of theoretical mechanisms.

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Conflict Resilience of Water and Energy Supply Infrastructure: Insights from Yemen

Water ◽

10.3390/w12113269 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 3269

Author(s):

Mohammad Al-Saidi ◽

Emma Lauren Roach ◽

Bilal Ahmed Hassen Al-Saeedi

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Energy Supply ◽

Political Instability ◽

Humanitarian Aid ◽

Infrastructure Systems ◽

State Fragility ◽

Basic Services ◽

Infrastructure Resilience ◽

Infrastructure Performance

Political instability and conflicts are contemporary problems across the Middle East. They threaten not only basic security, but also infrastructure performance. Supply infrastructure, providing basic services such as water and electricity, has been subjected to damage, capacity deterioration, and the bankruptcy of public providers. Often, in conflict countries such as Yemen, the continuity of basic supply is only possible thanks to adaptation efforts on the community and household levels. This paper examines the conflict resilience of water and energy supply infrastructure in Yemen during the armed conflict 2015–today. It contributes to resilience studies by linking knowledge on state fragility and conflicts, humanitarian aid, and infrastructure resilience. The paper presents adaptation responses of communities and public entities in the water and energy sectors in Yemen and critically evaluates these responses from the perspective of conflict resilience of infrastructure. The gained insights reaffirm the notion about the remarkable adaptive capacities of communities during conflicts and the importance of incorporating community-level adaptation responses into larger efforts to enhance the conflict resilience of infrastructure systems.

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