Sentiment Analysis of Stock Market Investors and Its Correlation with Stock Price Using Maximum Entropy

Author(s):  
Liang Xue ◽  
Han Wang ◽  
Fengling Wang ◽  
Huawen Ma
Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilpa B L ◽  
Shambhavi B R

PurposeStock market forecasters are focusing to create a positive approach for predicting the stock price. The fundamental principle of an effective stock market prediction is not only to produce the maximum outcomes but also to reduce the unreliable stock price estimate. In the stock market, sentiment analysis enables people for making educated decisions regarding the investment in a business. Moreover, the stock analysis identifies the business of an organization or a company. In fact, the prediction of stock prices is more complex due to high volatile nature that varies a large range of investor sentiment, economic and political factors, changes in leadership and other factors. This prediction often becomes ineffective, while considering only the historical data or textural information. Attempts are made to make the prediction more precise with the news sentiment along with the stock price information.Design/methodology/approachThis paper introduces a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, the stock data and news sentiment data are also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator-based features like moving average convergence divergence (MACD), relative strength index (RSI) and moving average (MA) are extracted. At the same time, the news data are processed to determine the sentiments by certain processes like (1) pre-processing, where keyword extraction and sentiment categorization process takes place; (2) keyword extraction, where WordNet and sentiment categorization process is done; (3) feature extraction, where Proposed holoentropy based features is extracted. (4) Classification, deep neural network is used that returns the sentiment output. To make the system more accurate on predicting the sentiment, the training of NN is carried out by self-improved whale optimization algorithm (SIWOA). Finally, optimized deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict the stock that considers the features of stock data and sentiment results from news data. Here, the weights of DBN are tuned by the new SIWOA.FindingsThe performance of the adopted scheme is computed over the existing models in terms of certain measures. The stock dataset includes two companies such as Reliance Communications and Relaxo Footwear. In addition, each company consists of three datasets (a) in daily option, set start day 1-1-2019 and end day 1-12-2020, (b) in monthly option, set start Jan 2000 and end Dec 2020 and (c) in yearly option, set year 2000. Moreover, the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was computed over the traditional classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM; also, it was compared over the existing optimization algorithms like NN + DBN + MFO, NN + DBN + CSA, NN + DBN + WOA and NN + DBN + PSO, correspondingly. Further, the performance was calculated based on the learning percentage that ranges from 60, 70, 80 and 90 in terms of certain measures like MAE, MSE and RMSE for six datasets. On observing the graph, the MAE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 91.67, 80, 91.11 and 93.33% superior to the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively for dataset 1. The proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA method holds minimum MAE value of (∼0.21) at learning percentage 80 for dataset 1; whereas, the traditional models holds the value for NN + DBN + CSA (∼1.20), NN + DBN + MFO (∼1.21), NN + DBN + PSO (∼0.23) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼0.25), respectively. From the table, it was clear that the RMSRE of the proposed NN + DBN + SIWOA model was 3.14, 1.08, 1.38 and 15.28% better than the existing classifiers like LSTM, NN + RF, NN + MLP and NN + SVM, respectively, for dataset 6. In addition, he MSE of the adopted NN + DBN + SIWOA method attain lower values (∼54944.41) for dataset 2 than other existing schemes like NN + DBN + CSA(∼9.43), NN + DBN + MFO (∼56728.68), NN + DBN + PSO (∼2.95) and NN + DBN + WOA (∼56767.88), respectively.Originality/valueThis paper has introduced a prediction framework via sentiment analysis. Thereby, along with the stock data and news sentiment data were also considered. From the stock data, technical indicator based features like MACD, RSI and MA are extracted. Therefore, the proposed work was said to be much appropriate for stock market prediction.


Stock market price movement forecast from multi-source data has gained massive interest in recent years. Studies were focussed on extracting the events and sentiments from different source data and employ them in learning the stock price movement patterns. This approach provided accurate and highly reliable forecasting as it involves multiple stock price indicators. However, some aspects of sentiment analysis and event extraction increase the training time and computation complexity in big data stock analysis. To overcome these issues, the hierarchical event extraction and the target dependent sentiment analysis are performed in this paper to improve the learning rate stock price movement patterns. In this paper, the events are hierarchically extracted from news articles using Deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine (DRBM). The target based sentiments from the tweets are detected using Improved Extreme Learning machine (IELM) whose parameters are optimally selected using Spotted Hyena Optimizer (SHO). The stock indicators obtained from these two processes are used in the learning process performed using Tolerant Flexible Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning (TFMA-DRL) model for analysing the stock patterns and forecasting the future stock trends. The forecasting results obtained by using the TFMA-DRL model by combining the stock indicators of targeted sentiments and hierarchical events are trustworthy and reliable. Evaluations are performed using three datasets collected for 12 months period from three sources of Twitter, Market News and Stock exchange. Results highlighted that the proposed stock forecasting model achieved 90% accuracy with minimum training time.


Author(s):  
Padmanayana ◽  
Varsha ◽  
Bhavya K

Stock market prediction is an important topic in ?nancial engineering especially since new techniques and approaches on this matter are gaining value constantly. In this project, we investigate the impact of sentiment expressed through Twitter tweets on stock price prediction. Twitter is the social media platform which provides a free platform for each individual to express their thoughts publicly. Specifically, we fetch the live twitter tweets of the particular company using the API. All the stop words, special characters are extracted from the dataset. The filtered data is used for sentiment analysis using Naïve bayes classifier. Thus, the tweets are classified into positive, negative and neutral tweets. To predict the stock price, the stock dataset is fetched from yahoo finance API. The stock data along with the tweets data are given as input to the machine learning model to obtain the result. XGBoost classifier is used as a model to predict the stock market price. The obtained prediction value is compared with the actual stock market value. The effectiveness of the proposed project on stock price prediction is demonstrated through experiments on several companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft using live twitter data and daily stock data. The goal of the project is to use historical stock data in conjunction with sentiment analysis of news headlines and Twitter posts, to predict the future price of a stock of interest. The headlines were obtained by scraping the website, FinViz, while tweets were taken using Tweepy. Both were analyzed using the Vader Sentiment Analyzer.


Author(s):  
Mohammad Pardaz Banu

The stock market is considered to be one of the most highly complex financial systems which consist of various components or stocks, the price of which fluctuates greatly with respect to time. Stock market forecasting involves uncovering the market trends with respect to time. All the stock market investors aim to maximize the returns over their investments and minimize the risks associated. There are time series methods such as AR, MA, SARIMAX developed to predict the stock price but neural network methods such as CNN, LSTM also used to predict the stock price. This research paper describes the prediction of stock market using neural network alogorithms and also few time series methods.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 90-94
Author(s):  
Aditya Singh Rajpurohit ◽  
Shravani Prakash Ahirrao ◽  
Pradnya Sangitbabu Gaikwad ◽  
Nutan Bhairu Dhamale

A stock market is a place where we can purchase the stocks of various companies(part of the company), which makes it volatile, and predicting it becomes a tedious task. So we need various algorithms and methodologies to predict the stock prices. We cannot depend on one type of algorithm because each algorithm has its own pros and cons and also it depends on the style of the trader on how he trades stocks. This paper will deal with different aspects like quantitative aspect- LSTM, RNN, ARIMA, and qualitative with sentiment analysis for predicting the stock prices, in an efficient manner.


2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 619-637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Nishat ◽  
Rozina Shaheen

This paper analyzes long-term equilibrium relationships between a group of macroeconomic variables and the Karachi Stock Exchange Index. The macroeconomic variables are represented by the industrial production index, the consumer price index, M1, and the value of an investment earning the money market rate. We employ a vector error correction model to explore such relationships during 1973:1 to 2004:4. We found that these five variables are cointegrated and two long-term equilibrium relationships exist among these variables. Our results indicated a "causal" relationship between the stock market and the economy. Analysis of our results indicates that industrial production is the largest positive determinant of Pakistani stock prices, while inflation is the largest negative determinant of stock prices in Pakistan. We found that while macroeconomic variables Granger-caused stock price movements, the reverse causality was observed in case of industrial production and stock prices. Furthermore, we found that statistically significant lag lengths between fluctuations in the stock market and changes in the real economy are relatively short.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Rosalina Rosalina ◽  
Hendra Jayanto

The aim of this paper is to get high accuracy of stock market forecasting in order to produce signals that will affect the decision making in the trading itself. Several experiments by using different methodologies have been performed to answer the stock market forecasting issues. A traditional linear model, like autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) has been used, but the result is not satisfactory because it is not suitable for model financial series. Yet experts are likely observed another approach by using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural network (ANN) are found to be more effective in realizing the input-output mapping and could estimate any continuous function which given an arbitrarily desired accuracy. In details, in this paper will use maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) and graph theory to distinguish and determine between low and high frequencies, which in this case acted as fundamental and technical prediction of stock market trading. After processed dataset is formed, then we will advance to the next level of the training process to generate the final result that is the buy or sell signals given from information whether the stock price will go up or down.


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